The Carbon Tax? It’s all about the vibe. Whether the Prime Minister stands or falls and whether the damn thing works, it’s all about the vibe.

Cartoon: Peter Nicholson

First, the PM vibe – since her survival seems to be a topic for more immediate concern than the survival of the planet.

There are two crucial questions to ask about that. Are voters still listening to what Julia Gillard says or have they already switched off and are just waiting for an election? And just how much credibility does she have?

Newspoll shows voter satisfaction with Ms Gillard has sunk to a record low. She has sunk below Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

If voters have already decided the Prime Minister is a dud, then Sunday’s package won’t do a thing. Indeed, given her saying “there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”, a couple of weeks of Ms Gillard on the road flogging one may even make matters worse.

The Prime Minister leads a government that comprehensively buggered up the home insulation scheme. She leads a government that has managed to see $1.1 billion of the $16.2 billion schools stimulus spending under the Building the Education Revolution program wasted. Ms Gillard promises refugee deals that fail to materialise and big plans with big price tags and equally large potential for disaster like set top boxes for pensioners.

Laying pink batts and building school halls are everyday exercises. If a government can’t manage them, can it really remake an economy?

Can Julia Gillard replace coal with renewable energy and keep lights on and our bills down? Can she even be trusted to get her arithmetic right? Do voters trust the judgement of a Prime Minister who announces that she wants to pay $300 for set top boxes available from Harvey Norman for less than a third of the price?

That’s the Prime Minister. Then there’s the scheme. That’s also bedevilled by questions of credibility.

First and fundamentally, there is the issue of whether the carbon tax will raise the revenue the government has forecast. How will the government measure the carbon produced by each of the 500 big polluters it slugs? How will they stop those companies deliberately under-estimating their emissions? How will they supervise the new tax regime? How will they enforce it?

The carbon tax will probably generate creative innovations in accounting long before we get any new clean energy solutions.

And back to the vibe.

The Prime Minister has announced what one way or the other is primarily an income package – for households and businesses alike. If the government wants to cut emissions, it needs to change behaviour amongst both the producers and consumers of energy.

The government’s Household Assistance Estimator is based on 43 predetermined household scenarios.

The behavioural effect on carbon reduction is crucial, yet we do not know how the government has calculated it or how they will measure it.

The high compensation the government has promised could well mean a lower behavioural effect than its experts have imagined.

The carbon tax package is a massive $9 billion-a-year new scheme that could cost the Prime Minister her job – while doing nothing for the environment.

Carbon tax is no answer for all these questions | Article | The Punch