by: Sarah Elks and Harry Edwards From: The Australian

December 23, 2011 12:00AM

Scottish tourists Lynne and Sarah McDonald, with parents Jackie and Stewart McDonald, wrap up well for a trip on Sydney's manly ferry yesterday. Picture: Dan Himbrechts Source: The Australian

YOU know things are really grim when Scottish tourists are grumbling about the weather.

Since arriving in Australia two weeks ago, the McDonald family from Armadale in central Scotland have felt right at home - thanks to the persistent rain and cool temperatures across the eastern states.

So unprepared were the McDonalds for the dreary weather, they were forced to spend yesterday buying warm clothes to cope with the big chill.

"We came here for a really sunny climate, and we brought no jumpers with us," said Sarah McDonald, 22. "It's been cold and wet."

Indeed it has. Sydney has had its coldest start to a summer in 51 years, while Brisbane and Canberra haven't experienced cooler Decembers for 48 and 47 years respectively.

Just to be different, the town of Roebourne in Western Australia's Pilbara reached a scorching 49.4C on Wednesday - the hottest December day ever recorded in WA and the second-hottest in Australia - and got almost as high again yesterday.

Elsewhere, the outlook continues grey: southeast Queensland and eastern NSW are expected to be wetter than normal for the rest of the summer.

The unpopular La Nina ocean-atmosphere phenomenon is to blame, and is not expected to move on until well after summer.

There is hope, however, for a warm and sunny Christmas Day for large areas of the nation.

The Yuletide forecast from the Weather Channel's senior meteorologist Tom Saunders was this: "It will be a warm and humid Christmas Day over southeastern Australia, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely over Tasmania, Victoria and southern NSW. The rest of NSW, along with most of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia should be dry."

But residents of the Northern Territory are facing an anxious Christmas weekend. Authorities in the Top End yesterday warned locals to waste no time in preparing for the cyclone brewing off the NT coast, which is forecast to intensify tomorrow.

The slow-moving low was last night 275km north-northeast of Darwin, with residents between the capital and Gove placed on cyclone watch.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Andrew Tupper said he was "highly confident" the system would form into a cyclone, probably by tomorrow morning.

It was too early to tell which direction the storm would head from there, but the Tiwi Islands were on high alert.

Northern Territory Police Commissioner John McRoberts said officers had doorknocked residents in remote communities yesterday, including on the islands, telling them to get ready.

"Preparation is the key here - don't waste any time," he said.

Mr McRoberts said plans were in place in case heavy rains cut off roads and halted barge services.

Chief Minister Paul Henderson urged residents to stay calm and be well prepared. He said Darwin's homeless would be moved into shelters should a cyclone bear down on the city.

Meanwhile on the Queensland coast, swimmers and boaties are being warned about the dangerous surf, a product of ex-tropical cyclone Fina, which yesterday weakened into a low in the Coral Sea, 800km east of Mackay.

The low-pressure system is moving slowly south.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Vinord Anand said it was edging closer to the coast, but would not re-form into a cyclone.

"We're going to see a bigger swell, as high as 4.5m on Sunday, from Fraser Island to Coolangatta," Mr Anand said.

"It'll be quite good for surfers on Sunday because the weather will be fine and warm."

Weather tests the Scots, but Yule be right | The Australian

 Ben Packham From: The Australian

December 23, 2011 12:48PM

Outspoken retailer Gerry Harvey. Picture: Stephen Cooper Source: Herald Sun

WAYNE Swan has branded retailer Gerry Harvey a whinger after the Harvey Norman boss declared he'd given up trying to compete with GST-free online retailers.

“I can't remember a Christmas where Gerry Harvey wasn't whingeing,” the Treasurer said.

“You might well recall back when we put the original stimulus package in place he spent a lot of time whingeing about that, but ultimately it did lift consumption in Australia and he did very well out of it.”

Mr Harvey has announced he will set up a online video game business based in Ireland to take advantage of the $1000 GST-free threshold on goods purchased overseas.

“Here, you've got every government agency you can think about on your back all day,” the retail chief said.

“If I've got an overseas website, they can all go and get nicked. They can't sue me, they can't threaten me, they can't do anything.”

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AUSTRALIA's biggest electrical retailer, Harvey Norman, will start shipping tax-free computer games from Ireland, undercutting its domestic stores.

Domestic retailers have urged the government to lower the tax-free threshold for imported goods, but a recent Productivity Commission report found doing so would cost more than the government would raise in extra taxes.

It found discounts offered by online retailers were often far greater than the 10 per cent caused by the GST.

“The Productivity Commission looked at all of these issues and it didn't find that the cause of the problems with retail across the board was this $1000 threshold,” Mr Swan told the ABC.

Mr Harvey said the government's refusal to act on the issue threatened Australian jobs.

He later responded to Mr Swan, saying he wasn't a whinger and only wanted to protect the retail sector, and not just his business.

“To call me a whinger when you are poll-driven, that's just an illusion,” he told ABC Radio today.

He told Mr Swan: “I've been telling you and your government for a long time ... you have a major problem: the GST. You thought it was more important to think about the votes you were going to get.”

Mr Harvey says he's worried about retail jobs.

“I understand why consumers want to get a cheap deal, I do too, but the big problem we've got is that 1.2 million Australians are employed in retail,” Mr Harvey said.

“If you drop 200,000 or 300,000 or 400,000 people out of retail, the domino effect is you'll drop a million people out of employment. So this is a really big, big issue.”

Wayne Swan takes aim at 'whinger' Gerry Harvey | The Australian

 December 17, 2011

FURTHER interest rate cuts need to be a central element of Australia's defence against recession should the financial crisis in Europe worsen beyond expectations, Julia Gillard says.

In an end-of-year interview with the Herald, the Prime Minister was also defiant amid building leadership tension between her and Kevin Rudd, saying her government would last the full term and she would lead it to the election.

''As we move towards the end of 2011 and start looking to 2012, I think we've got to remember that the predictions this time last year were the government wouldn't last,'' she said. ''I've never had the slightest doubt that this government would go to the next election at the normal cycle in the second half of 2013. I'd hope that as we leave 2011, more people will share my view than perhaps used to.''

Late yesterday, the Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson, issued a one-line statement supporting Ms Gillard, saying she was doing ''a remarkable job''. Mr Ferguson, who has been associated with Mr Rudd, pointedly refused to endorse the Prime Minister on Thursday, saying his loyalty was to the Labor Party. It took him more than 24 hours to clarify and it is believed it followed a call from her office.

Ms Gillard cited her priorities for 2012 as implementing the price on carbon and the mining tax with the accompanying compensation, developing the national disability insurance scheme and aged-care reforms, and keeping a strong focus on the economy. She said the economy was still growing and the region was doing well but there was the potential for the impact of the European meltdown to be worse than anticipated.

With the government clinging to a fragile $1.5 billion surplus target for 2012-13, and spending already tight, Ms Gillard said further interest rate cuts were the most obvious move should economic stimulus be required.

''If circumstances worsen, there is plenty of room for our nation on the monetary policy side, the interest rate side,'' she said. ''Now, that is in the hands of the Reserve Bank, but that does give our nation opportunities to deal with impacts on global growth if they are more profound than we can see now.''

After the big four banks initially refused to pass on the last rate cut earlier this month, they indicated they would be even more reluctant next year, saying their own borrowing costs would be increasing. This would limit economic stimulus but Ms Gillard said the government would pressure the banks as it did this month. She also kept open the possibility of more spending cuts.

The Prime Minister ends the year with a cloud over her leadership, exacerbated by the fallout from Monday's ministerial reshuffle. At least five of the 30 ministers now back Mr Rudd.

Kim Carr, who was demoted from cabinet, went public with his disappointment for the third day yesterday. He said Ms Gillard did not cite disappointment with his performance when she demoted him. ''I'm obviously at a loss to understand some of these matters,'' he said. Some people claim he has been punished because he leaked but there is no evidence of that.

The Tertiary Education Minister, Chris Evans, who lost his Workplace Relations portfolio, is not disgruntled and is telling colleagues he still firmly backs the Prime Minister.

Ms Gillard told the Herald her only motive was to put key people in ''the key areas of work for the government in 2012'', including disabilities, aged care and industrial relations. ''That is what is driving me.''

Fearing a campaign of destabilisation over summer, a Gillard supporter said: ''Kevin has to decide how many favours he wants to pay to Tony Abbott.''

Defiant Gillard: I'm here to stay

By Jeremy Thompson 

Updated December 16, 2011 14:35:31

Photo: Ms Gillard's reshuffle saw ministers moved aside to make way for the PM's supporters (Ross Setford/NZPA, file photo: AAP)

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Julia Gillard's grip on the prime ministership appears more tenuous than ever, with a group of senior ministers now believed to have swung their support behind leadership aspirant Kevin Rudd.

The spark for the shift in allegiances was this week's ministerial reshuffle, which saw good-performing ministers Kim Carr and Robert McClelland moved aside to make way for strong supporters of Ms Gillard.

Nicola Roxon was elevated to Attorney-General in place of Mr McClelland and Greg Combet was given Senator Carr’s Industry portfolio.

As well, two of the so-called faceless men, Bill Shorten and Mark Arbib, who engineered last year’s leadership coup against Mr Rudd, were rewarded with promotion.

Senator Carr this morning bitterly slammed colleagues who had briefed journalists that he had been sacked because of poor performance, telling AM they were "gutless".

And Resources Minister Martin Ferguson yesterday refused to back Ms Gillard, saying instead that he was "loyal to the Labor Party".

Mr McClelland yesterday confirmed he had refused to be forced out of Cabinet despite his demotion, and said a number of his Caucus colleagues had contacted him to "discuss matters" around the reshuffle.

Public dissent after a reshuffle by ministers is an extremely rare event, and combined with poor opinion polls, it bodes ill for Ms Gillard's longevity as Prime Minister.

Asked this morning if Ms Gillard had told him she was not happy with the job he was doing in the Industry portfolio, Senator Carr said: "No".

"I don't think it's got anything to do with performance," Senator Carr told AM.

"It's a matter between me and the Prime Minister. I'm at a loss to try and explain some of these matters."

He said he had read "press scuttlebutt", leaked by colleagues, about his performance.

"I can't comment on the actions of what are essentially gutless people that prefer to work through the newspapers rather than talk to me about these matters."

Allegiance

Asked directly if his allegiance had shifted from Ms Gillard to Mr Rudd, Mr Ferguson yesterday told reporters: "I am loyal to the Labor Party.

"I have a very professional relationship with both Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, and it's about just continuing to do the job that I have responsibility for. I'm not going to respond to press speculation."

The dissent comes on top of leaks against Mr Rudd and his omission from Ms Gillard's speech at Labor's national conference two weeks ago.

But one minister firmly in Ms Gillard's corner is Senator Chris Evans, who himself was demoted in this week's reshuffle, losing his employment and workplace relations portfolio to Mr Shorten.

Senator Evans says the Prime Minister has his unqualified allegiance.

"Absolutely. I mean Julia's doing a very good job as Prime Minister, and as Senate leader I support her absolutely," he said.

"I think you'll find that's the view of the Caucus that we're committed behind Julia."

First posted December 16, 2011 09:58:13

Gillard's grip slips as MPs back Rudd - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

By Malcolm Farr, National Political Editor

From: news.com.au December 10, 2011 6:05PM

PRIME Minister Julia Gillard is using the weekend to tell ministers their fate in what is expected to be a substantial reshuffle of her ministry.

And already the reorganization is being seen as a bid to shore up her support against her predecessor, Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.

The trigger is expected to be the resignation of Small Business Minister Nick Sherry, according to Labor sources. As a senator, his will be replaced through a party nomination and a risky bye-election would not be needed.

Assistant Treasurer Bill Shorten is certain to be promoted to cabinet, probably as Workplace Relations Minister.

Sources have told news.com.au that Mr Shorten has been close to Ms Gillard’s discussions on the changes.

The new ministry is expected to be announced Monday or Tuesday.
Most of the elevations will be readily justified on merit, sources have said. Mr Shorten, for example, has impressed since he was given the job of Parliamentary secretary for disabilities.

Another possible promotion could be that of Indigenous Employment Minister Mark Arbib, who has worked solidly and effectively in his port folio over the past year.

And left wingers could benefit. Mental Heath Minister Mark Butler, a prospect for future leadership of the left, is among those being considered for a higher role.

However, the movement of MPs will be seen as a shoring up the ranks of of so-called faceless men who have been credited with helping Ms Gillard dump Mr Rudd in June last year.

About six weeks ago there was an angry reaction from some senior right wing figures disappointed by the decision to have on-shore processing of asylum seekers after the High Court blocked the Malaysian solution, and it became clear Parliament would not change the law to allow that option to proceed.

They would not have supported Mr Rudd in retaliation, but sources today said some fence mending was needed.

Immigration Minister Chris Bowen today said allocation of ministries was "entirely a matter for the Prime Minister", and didn't dispute that a reshuffle was close.

"If the Prime Minister wants me to stay in this job, I'll stay in this job," Mr Bowen told reporters.

"If the Prime Minister asks me to do another job, I'll do another job."

Movers and shakers: PM Julia Gillard to reshuffle cabinet to ward off Rudd challenge | News.com.au

By ABC's Barrie Cassidy

Posted December 09, 2011 07:40:35

Photo: At the end 2011, is there a winner? Certainly not between the two leaders. (Getty Images: Graham Denholm)

Let's take the most uncharitable view of how the major political parties performed through 2011… almost everybody else is.

The Government's record goes like this. Despite the Prime Minister's assurance that there never would be a carbon tax under a Government she led, there is now in place a price on carbon.

And the year ends with a political fix on the speaker's position and something similar with the budget numbers.

The Coalition started a relentlessly negative year by opposing a means-tested levy to help out Queensland flood victims – a measure that surely the majority were comfortable with – and ended the year opposing a super profits tax on miners – a measure agreed to by the three biggest miners.

In between, both parties – aided and abetted by a shameful tabloid media – engaged in a campaign that reduced asylum seekers to invaders about to flood your suburb.

That's the most uncharitable view.

Now for the charity.

The Government – as Julia Gillard promised – actually started to deliver. The hung parliament, despite itself, produced some well-considered outcomes, often bringing a smile to the faces of the independents and the Greens.

Putting aside almost meaningless discussion about whether a surplus can, should or will be achieved by 2012-2013, the economy continues to be the envy of the rest of the world. Business is investing, consumers are spending and unemployment is low.

And despite some ripping and tearing at the paper, Kevin Rudd remains in his box.

What of the Coalition? Well the Coalition achieved what it set out to achieve. It kept the Government accountable and gave them a comprehensive thrashing in the opinion polls. Several frontbenchers, but most notably Scott Morrison, enhanced their reputations; and some bright sparks on the backbench showed the rest of them how it's done. And Malcolm Turnbull, by and large, was also kept in his box.

Yet for mine, the year was really dominated by an obsession with opinion polls. That obsession was driven by two things. The decision by The Australian to milk an unstable political environment by publishing a poll every fortnight. And hanging over that, the possibility that the Government could lose its wafer-thin majority at any time, therefore forcing an early election. There was a sense that every poll counted.

Now we know better. The likelihood is that this parliament will run a full term. In other words, there won't be an election until the second half of 2013. That renders almost all of the thousands of words of analysis every second Tuesday almost meaningless in the longer term. Perhaps now there will be a return to the logic of the past; that polls only really matter much closer to an election.

So at the end of a year like that, is there a winner? Certainly not between the two leaders. In terms of satisfaction ratings, both are well into negative territory. The trend though is better for Gillard than Abbott. The Prime Minister is finally starting to build some stature and authority. In that respect, impressions gained during the visit of US President Obama will be more lasting than opportunities missed during a party conference that most of the country missed.

Tony Abbott too, can reverse some of the negative views held about him. All he has to do is add some positives to the negative and the rest will follow. Now that he knows 2012 will not be an election year, his hand is forced anyway.

Imagine how far in front the Coalition would be if their leader wasn't so unpopular?

In terms of the two parties, the Labor Party can claim the year, for this reason.

In 2010, Julia Gillard negotiated a slender, precarious grip on power. By the end of 2011, she had virtually guaranteed the Government an extra two years in office.

That is not to deny the political prospects as they now sit, albeit well out from an election.

The Coalition is twice as likely as the Government to win the next election whenever it is held. But flattering opinion polls, while they deliver hope, do not deliver power.

Tony Abbott's task through 2012 is to deliver hope based on far more than poll numbers.

And Julia Gillard's task is to persuade the country that what she delivered in 2011 was worth delivering in the first place.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders.

Polls, pollies and policies: the year that was - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

By Jeremy Thompson

Posted December 07, 2011 10:38:20

Photo: Mr Abbott says the Coalition were trying to manage Mr Slipper (top) out of Parliament. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

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Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has slammed former Liberal MP and new Speaker Peter Slipper, saying he had "outlived his usefulness" as a member of the Coalition.

Mr Abbott was responding to a newspaper report this morning where Mr Slipper said he had quit the Coalition because he was being "bullied" by Queensland’s Liberal-National Party.

The LNP was likely to pre-select former Howard government minister Mal Brough to stand for Mr Slipper's seat of Fisher in Queensland.

The Government last month effectively gained an extra vote when Labor Speaker Harry Jenkins returned to the backbench to be replaced by Mr Slipper, who immediately resigned from the LNP.

The move makes it more likely that the minority government will survive until the 2013 elections.

Speaking on ABC Radio in Sydney, Mr Abbott said the move to replace Mr Slipper was just how politics works.

"I think that it's no secret that a lot of people thought he had outlived his usefulness as an LNP member," he said.

"That's no secret. That's what happens inside political parties, that eventually, if you have been there for long enough, some people think its time for you to reconsider your tenure."

Mr Abbott said the Coalition was trying to "manage him as gracefully as we could" out of the Parliament.

"While the Liberal-National Party was trying to manage him out of the Parliament the Prime Minister has now given him the biggest job in the Parliament," he said.

He repeated his assertions that Mr Slipper is now "Julia Gillard's issue".

"It's for her to handle, not me. he's not my man."

Mr Abbott said he has known Mr Slipper for a long time, they had had "some ups and downs", but he had been a friend.

"He's made some choices. Let's see how they all work out for him," he said.

Abbott renews attack on Slipper - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

By ABC's Annabel Crabb

Updated December 07, 2011 16:27:40

Photo: Maintaining control over messages and perceptions is getting harder and harder for politicians. (Getty Images)

It's one thing or another, in politics.

Either you've got everything under control, in which case we in the media carry on about how you're a freakish cyborg control-freak loon from another planet, or you let go a bit, in which case we immediately accuse you of being limp, gutless, ineffectual, or - that most simultaneously dreadful yet utterly meaningless of criticisms - "un-prime-ministerial".

(Is it wrong of me to hate this term so very much? Hearing it makes my thoughts stray to self-harm. "Prime ministerial"? As opposed to what? Back-bencherial? Marsupial? Extra-terrestrial? As a phrase, it's up there with the worst of them. And yeah, "Killing Season", I'm looking right at you.)

Control is a diminishing political commodity, whether it's over one's own self-image or over the fate of an idea or argument. Thanks to the exponential acceleration of the news cycle, the growing cacophony of the internet, and the wave upon wave of published polls, the chances of everything going wrong are now so vastly inflated that modern politicians tend to retreat into robotics just to survive another day. Political jargon and sloganeering aren't specifically designed to induce murderous feelings in the heart of the listener, though that is often their effect; they're just the easiest way, usually, for a politician to protect themselves and retain some degree of control over the exchange. The difficulty here is that sometimes in their eagerness to control an argument, quite often they forget to have it at all, which can be rather puzzling for voters.

It's why parties should always be encouraged to do what the ALP did at the weekend; argue publicly among themselves, rather than covertly, through journalists or the weird semaphore of factional negotiation. The argument is actually important; it shows where individuals stand and why, and teaches us how the decision-making process works. The weekend debate about refugee policy, for instance, gave a much better insight into the subtleties of this particular issue than any amount of time spent watching Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott shriek at each other about it. Where else can you see this sort of thing? The Libs tend to air their linen in private. And the Greens - for all their talk of openness and inclusion - kick the media out of their conferences.

Maintaining control over messages and perceptions is getting harder and harder. And even if you direct all your energies toward maintaining control, the situation generally explodes sooner or later. Think of Kevin Rudd, whose superhuman, 20-hours-a-day efforts to control his colleagues and the media cycle built up a head of pressure which - when it blew - took him with it.

Tony Abbott has enjoyed remarkable control over his own party for the past 18 months. Not because he is a Rudd-style control freak, it must be said. His control has derived chiefly from the sheer proximity of power, which has held his colleagues behind him in a quiver of anticipation. Just one seat. Just one heart attack, one crooked MP, one defection.

Just as fear of losing government has held Government MPs more or less behind Julia Gillard through the mad ping-pong of asylum seeker policy, the crap-shoot of pokies reform and the existential threat of the carbon tax, the sniff of winning it has kept Coalition MPs sedated as Tony Abbott promises billions on paid parental leave schemes or clears the decks of Coalition industrial relations policy.

This degree of artificial control might work nicely for party leaders and Whips, but it doesn't do much for the humble voter looking for non-intelligence-insulting answers to basic questions.

Peter Slipper's acceptance of the Speaker's position changes this knife-edge equation noticeably. Let's hope that if Slipper's time in the chair generates any legacy beyond a sheaf of entitlements investigations and some very good dinners, it will be an end to the rigor into which both parties have been forced and the beginning of some genuine debate.

Annabel Crabb is the ABC's chief online political writer.

Freakish political control may soon be on a slippery slope - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Simon Benson From: The Daily Telegraph

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on the evenings of 27-28 September 2011. The results are based on the opinions of 500 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of Australia Source: The Daily Telegraph

Source: The Daily Telegraph

She seems impressed ... Kevin Rudd reads to children in Queensland / Pic: Jodie Richter Source: The Daily Telegraph

KEVIN Rudd appears to be the only hope left to restore the federal government's fortunes, with almost one in five people saying they would be more likely to vote Labor if he was leader rather than Julia Gillard.

As speculation continues to engulf the PM's hold on the leadership, an exclusive Galaxy Poll for The Daily Telegraph revealed 60 per cent of voters would prefer Mr Rudd to lead Labor, compared to 26 per cent support for Ms Gillard.

And in terms of winning an election, 68 per cent claimed he was Labor's best chance, with only 22 per cent backing Ms Gillard. The poll comes ahead of the expected announcement today by Treasurer Wayne Swan of a $2 billion revenue hit to the budget bottom line, putting the promise to return to surplus further in doubt.

The polls point to a shift in votes back to Labor if Mr Rudd regained the leadership. A return to Mr Rudd - who has recovered from recent heart surgery, during which he underwent a second aortic valve replacement - would set a precedent in government.

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John Howard was nicknamed "Lazarus with a triple bypass" after losing and regaining the Liberal leadership twice.

But he did it in opposition before going on to become prime minister.

But to restore faith with the community if he were to ever challenge, Mr Rudd would have to drop the Malaysia plan for asylum seekers, with almost 90 per cent of all Australians now opposed to it.

In a sign that the mood for change is hardening most within Labor's own support base, 64 per cent of Labor voters now concede that the former PM gave the party more hope than Ms Gillard, on 32 per cent.

The poll of 500 people, conducted nationally over Tuesday and Wednesday nights, revealed 28 per cent of voters said they would be more likely to support Labor under Mr Rudd compared to only 10 per cent saying they would be less likely.

With Labor's brand now severely damaged, however, 60 per cent of respondents said a change of leadership would not shift their vote.

The poll results come only a year after the election of the minority Gillard government and suggest that, despite being dumped as leader by his colleagues, voters might be prepared to give Mr Rudd a second chance. Even among Labor supporters, whose preference for Mr Rudd over Ms Gillard was only 57 per cent to 41 per cent, there was a resignation that he was the best chance to drag the government out of its poll slump and restore it to a winnable position.

But Mr Rudd would also have to commit to fixing some of the gov, ernment's policy disasters with little support in the community for the Malaysia people-swap deal for asylum seekers.

A crushing majority of Australians have rejected Ms Gillard's pursuit of the policy, with only 14 per cent of people polled claiming to support it.

Only 19 per cent of Labor voters supported it and only 10 per cent of coalition voters.

Almost half of those people surveyed preferred any other overseas processing solution, including Nauru, to processing in Australia.

As Ms Gillard celebrated her 50th birthday yesterday, there were few good tidings from Australian voters, according to Galaxy Research CEO David Briggs.

"Kevin Rudd is considered the best choice to lead the federal Labor Party by a wide margin," he said.

"Such is the popularity of Kevin Rudd that there is consensus between Labor and Coalition supporters, with both of the opinion he is now the best choice to lead the federal Labor Party."

In what might also come as a shock for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, coalition voters' support for Mr Rudd was overwhelming - with 75 per cent of them agreeing that he gave Labor the best chance of a victory.

Exclusive poll - Kevin Rudd could resurect the Labor vote | Perth Now

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd during the ALP Conference at the Convention Centre in Darling Harbour, Sydney. Picture: Renee Nowytarger Source: The Daily Telegraph

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THE internal Labor hostility towards former leader Kevin Rudd is at a new peak following criticism of his behaviour at the party's weekend national conference.

The strengthened animosity could trigger a showdown between Mr Rudd and his forces, and those of his successor Julia Gillard.

Senior Labor figures have considered a widespread reshuffle of the ministry which would see Mr Rudd ousted as Foreign Minister as punishment for perceived disloyalty to Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

It is understood the proposal was ditched, in part because Mr Rudd might use the freedom of the back bench to intensify his campaign against Ms Gillard, who forced him out as Prime Minister in June last year.

Opponents of Mr Rudd's bid to regain the leadership were furious when they read an interview in the Sunday Telegraph quoting an unnamed source.

A minister told news.com.au the Foreign Minister had been heard using the same phrases quoted in the article.
There also was criticism of Mr Rudd's address to conference Sunday afternoon, which was seen as a largely self promotion rather than a policy debate, with substantial references to achievements while he was PM.

Retaliation was swift. The Sydney Morning Herald was leaked the sealed section of a party post mortem on the election which accused Mr Rudd of leaking details, or approving of leaks, which battered Ms Gillard's campaign.

``He cost us the election,'' a minister told news.com.au.

Mr Rudd has left Australia for a Bonn conference on allied operations in Afghanistan, and will then fly into Tripoli, Libya.

The leaking of the sealed section was not uniformly applauded within the ALP with some MPs concerned it would unnecessarily inflame relations between the two senior party figures.

``Has anyone noted that a report accusing Kevin of leaking has been leaked?'' said one unimpressed Labor figure.

The critical part of the ALP's official report on the election has not been formally made public, but its contents were revealed known in newspaper reports soon after the rest of the document was released earlier this year.

Mr Rudd has consistently called for the sealed section be released, said a spokeswoman today.

On November 26 the Foreign Minister said factional chiefs had wanted to suppress part of the findings by Senator John Faulkner and former premiers Bob Carr and Steve Bracks.

“Remember, Bracks, Carr and Faulkner, the authors of the review called for its full public release – what are we afraid of? That our 35,000 branch members might actually read it?’’ he said at the time.

“I believe it is these lost opportunities of reform in the past that mean we must fully embrace the reform package proposed for the future through this review.

“Because to pick and choose the reforms we embrace based on the recommendations of the factions, after the process of comprehensive consultation across the breadth of the ALP by the Review team itself, is death by a thousand cuts."

The significance on this occasion is the timing. It is being seen as a sharp jab at Mr Rudd, but has overwhelmed any positive coverage of the conference's final day.

The renewed animosity between Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard has come as the Prime Minister hoped to get an opinion poll kick from her own performance at the national conference.

Today's Newspoll showed the Government was on a dismal 31 per cent of the primary vote and trailed the Coalition 54-46 when preferences were allocated.

But Ms Gillard has established a lead over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister.
She was preferred PM for 43 per cent of voters, compared to 36 for Mr Abbott.

Ms Gillard's performance as PM was rated satisfactory by 36 per cent of voters, and Mr Abbott's performance was approved by 33 per cent.

But voters were not keen on either.

Some 56 were dissatisfied with Ms Gillard's performance and 57 per cent didn't like how Mr Abbott was doing his job as Opposition Leader.

RUDD v GILLARD: Supporter camps prepare for showdown | News.com.au

By Samantha Maiden

From: Sunday Herald Sun

December 04, 2011 12:07AM

Kevin Rudd pictured at the national Labor party conference. Picture: Renee Nowytarger Source: Herald Sun

Kevin Rudd has fuelled speculation of a new leadership plot, failing to deny he is working to undermine Julia Gillard, left. Source: The Australian

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KEVIN Rudd still has "the ticker" to tackle Julia Gillard for the prime ministership and is preparing to challenge within months.

Despite a belief that Mr Rudd's ambitions had been put on ice following a recent turnaround in fortunes for Julia Gillard, supporters of the deposed PM want him to move on her before next year's Budget in May.

"Kevin has never wanted for ticker when it comes to taking on the leadership," one Labor MP told the Sunday Herald Sun.

Mr Rudd's resolve is said to have firmed after being humiliated at the ALP national conference.

Despite dragging Labor out of 13 years of opposition in 2007, Mr Rudd's brief period as prime minister was deliberately wiped from history by Ms Gillard in her opening address.

Mr Rudd's backers were infuriated and disgusted by the very public snub.

Despite Gillard Cabinet euphoria that the year had ended on a high with the defection of Peter Slipper and the passage of the mining tax, Mr Rudd's supporters insist the leadership issue has not been laid to rest.

"This will all come to a natural head before the next Budget," a Labor MP said. "Gillard will never go anywhere by her own volition. So it will have to be done by other means.

"She's been given all the rope she needs."

The Foreign Affairs Minister has been flexing his muscle in recent weeks, declaring an open mind to the direct election of the Labor leader by rank-and-file members of the ALP.

There was anger among supporters of Mr Rudd yesterday over what they regarded as the sidelining of the Foreign Affairs Minister, who was relegated to the dying hours of the ALP conference to debate his portfolio.

Ms Gillard's decision to argue that ALP conferences should not be a "coronation or a campaign launch" was regarded as another dig at the former PM over claims he shut down debate.

The Prime Minister and Treasurer Wayne Swan's decision to pay tribute to Labor's greatest leaders on Friday, in a roll call that included every Labor PM including Curtin, Chifley, Whitlam, Hawke and Keating but excluded Mr Rudd, had also angered MPs.

Supporters of Mr Rudd conceded that the ALP caucus was not prepared to act before Christmas, citing a desire to extend Ms Gillard natural justice, allowing her to welcome US President Barack Obama to Australia and conclude the ALP conference.

But they warned the basis of Labor's primary vote had not altered, with dozens of Labor MPs facing the loss of seats in a potential electoral slaughter.

The critics warned the defection of Liberal MP Mr Slipper to become Speaker and sit as an independent in Parliament would backfire.

The political knifing of Mr Rudd, the carbon tax lie and the "knifing of Harry" as Speaker were cited as the PM's three biggest problems. Former Speaker Harry Jenkins has denied he was pushed to vacate the Speaker's chair, a move that has delivered Labor an extra vote on the floor of Parliament.

But there were also expectations that Mr Rudd would offer another olive branch to the Left faction on nuclear policy when he spoke today.

The Right faction remains solid behind the Prime Minister, with power brokers Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy bitterly opposed to the return of Mr Rudd as leader.

Humilated Kevin Rudd plots a leadership coup | News.com.au

 By Joel Christie From: The Daily Telegraph

December 02, 2011 7:02AM

Source: The Daily Telegraph

Source: The Daily Telegraph

Former Queensland premier Joh Bjelke Petersen will be the focus of the new Underbelly series. Picture Courier Mail Source: The Courier-Mail

And don't you worry about that ... former Queensland Premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen / Pic: David Caird Source: The Daily Telegraph

ILLEGAL casinos and government kickbacks are set to replace barber razors and John Ibrahim in the next instalment of Australian crime saga Underbelly.

TV insiders have revealed a script detailing the Fitzgerald inquiry, held in Queensland and covering much of the 1980s, is well under way. It traces the involvement of top policemen and their political bosses in the running of brothels and gambling dens that brought down Queensland's longest-serving premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen.

Heading up the plot as the requisite baddie will be colourful Sunshine State figure Gerry Bellino, whose multi-million dollar sex and poker empire came undone when he was convicted for paying bribes to police and jailed for almost seven years.

Sources said the fifth season of the popular Channel 9 series would start early in the dodgy decade with honest cop Ray Whitrod who, like many in the force at the time, was exiled for investigating the network of graft that incriminated Terrence "Terry" Lewis, who went on to become police commissioner and received a knighthood.

It is also expected to feature Walkley award-winning journalist Phil Dickie, whose exposes of the owners of illegal brothels in The Courier Mail eventually instigated the landmark inquiry, which finished in 1989 with the removal of Lewis, who was stripped of his knighthood and jailed for more than 10 years.

While the Bjelke-Petersen trial resulted in a hung jury, former health minister Leisha Harvey and former transport minister Don Lane were found guilty and did time. High-profile Queensland politician Russ Hinze - referred to as "the father of the modern Gold Coast" and grandfather of model Kristy Hinze - was found to have accepted bribes but died before charges could be laid.

Dickie, whose girlfriend's house was shot up at the time his stories were published, now lives in Switzerland but said he was aware his book The Road To Fitzgerald had been part of the research process for the show.

"I know it has been in the pipeline for a while (but) I am not attached to it," he said.

"Knowing Underbelly, they will want to focus a lot on the crims in the street."

Filming is expected to take place primarily in Brisbane's Fortitude Valley.

Actor Peter O'Brien, who played bookmaker George Freeman in Underbelly: A Tale Of Two Cities, previously said he would be interested in playing a Brisbane identity from the Fitzgerald era, most notably Dickie. "There's a couple of journalists from that period who creamed it, and also a couple of blokes who ran a couple of brothels (so) that would be interesting," O'Brien said.

A Channel 9 spokeswoman said the network was not yet ready to announce the Underbelly format for 2012.

"The Fitzgerald inquiry is one of the contenders but there are at least two other Australian crime stories being considered as well," she said.

Queensland's Fitzgerald inquiry to be the subject of the next Underbelly | News.com.au

By ABC's Annabel Crabb

Updated December 02, 2011 08:17:40

Photo: Left and Right: Prime Minister Julia Gillard hugs former prime minister and current Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd. (AAP: Alan Porritt)

Here's the story so far.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard is from the Left. The former prime minister and current Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd is from the Right.

Nearly 18 months ago, a group of factional leaders from the Right approached Julia Gillard (from the Left) and asked her to help them depose Kevin Rudd (from the Right).

Julia Gillard (from the Left) agreed, and within about two hours, almost all of the Right - and much of the Left - were on board. What was left of the Left stuck with Mr Rudd (from the Right), due in the most part to their fears - articulated by Mr Rudd in the fateful Caucus meeting that followed - that a move to Ms Gillard (from the Left) would entail a lurch to the Right on key policy issues such as the management of asylum seekers.

It does seem that - in this respect at least - those who were left of the Left (and Mr Rudd, from the Right) were right.

Under the rule of Julia Gillard (from the Left), the Left has felt left out, a feeling stemming chiefly from her enthusiasm for controversial export industries (live animals to Indonesia, live uranium to India and live Sri Lankan teenagers to Malaysia). The Left feels that Julia Gillard (from the Left) has no right to be on the Right of such matters.

Of gay marriage, barely anything polite can be said between the Prime Minister and her own faction. The Left favours - overwhelmingly - the legalisation of same-sex marriage. Ms Gillard (from the Left) does not believe gay men or lesbians should have the option of swearing themselves to each other. This rankles, rather understandably; she has borrowed their idea of living in companionable sin, but does not feel the flexibility should run both ways.

The Prime Minister has called for the matter to be subject to a conscience vote. This is an approach that would allow the Prime Minister to appear liberally inclined on the issue, while in effect (and here Ms Gillard relies shrewdly on her working knowledge of actual Labor consciences) ensuring that the whole thing dies with its leg in the air.

The Prime Minister promised before the last election that her government would not change the Marriage Act. If her word is to be made good, it will be thanks to the Right faction, who doggedly protect her against her own grouping.

The Left and Right also have differing views on the pressing question of how to adjust the Australian Labor Party structurally so that it doesn't seem like such an egregious waste of time to anyone not presently serving as a member of the Senate.

The Right, who have long enjoyed a majority at Labor national conferences under the current system of branch and union warfare, are broadly re-endorsing the status quo, with some fancy-sounding enhancements like trial primaries and online policy groups.

The Left, who tend to command a greater proportion of the Labor membership overall (though, to their eternal disadvantage, it is almost always the less-organised bit) are plumping for popular election wherever possible.

Another big fan of popular election is Kevin Rudd (from the Right).

Mr Rudd - whose approval rating among his immediate colleagues dramatically undershoots his broader popularity among party hoi polloi - last week issued a clarion call to the party to listen to its masses.

"Let a hundred flowers bloom; let a hundred schools of thought contend," he beamed, borrowing the Chinese Communist slogan of the 1950s whose liberal-sounding rhetoric all too soon succumbed to an all-too-predictable round of Beijing brutality.

Those with a sense of history (or not even that; iView would do) immediately reflected that when Mr Rudd was Actual Prime Minister, not just Preferred, his approach on such matters was better summarised as "Let A Single Mute Cactus Die Unremarked In A Pot, For All I Care".

The calendar tells us it is only two years since Kevin Rudd presided over the most obsequious Labor National Conference in living memory. The rhetoric tells us it's been, in Labor years, much longer.

Annabel Crabb is the ABC's chief online political writer.

Today's ALP: left and right make for queer bedfellows - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)