By ABC's Barrie Cassidy
Posted December 09, 2011 07:40:35
Let's take the most uncharitable view of how the major political parties performed through 2011… almost everybody else is.
The Government's record goes like this. Despite the Prime Minister's assurance that there never would be a carbon tax under a Government she led, there is now in place a price on carbon.
And the year ends with a political fix on the speaker's position and something similar with the budget numbers.
The Coalition started a relentlessly negative year by opposing a means-tested levy to help out Queensland flood victims – a measure that surely the majority were comfortable with – and ended the year opposing a super profits tax on miners – a measure agreed to by the three biggest miners.
In between, both parties – aided and abetted by a shameful tabloid media – engaged in a campaign that reduced asylum seekers to invaders about to flood your suburb.
That's the most uncharitable view.
Now for the charity.
The Government – as Julia Gillard promised – actually started to deliver. The hung parliament, despite itself, produced some well-considered outcomes, often bringing a smile to the faces of the independents and the Greens.
Putting aside almost meaningless discussion about whether a surplus can, should or will be achieved by 2012-2013, the economy continues to be the envy of the rest of the world. Business is investing, consumers are spending and unemployment is low.
And despite some ripping and tearing at the paper, Kevin Rudd remains in his box.
What of the Coalition? Well the Coalition achieved what it set out to achieve. It kept the Government accountable and gave them a comprehensive thrashing in the opinion polls. Several frontbenchers, but most notably Scott Morrison, enhanced their reputations; and some bright sparks on the backbench showed the rest of them how it's done. And Malcolm Turnbull, by and large, was also kept in his box.
Yet for mine, the year was really dominated by an obsession with opinion polls. That obsession was driven by two things. The decision by The Australian to milk an unstable political environment by publishing a poll every fortnight. And hanging over that, the possibility that the Government could lose its wafer-thin majority at any time, therefore forcing an early election. There was a sense that every poll counted.
Now we know better. The likelihood is that this parliament will run a full term. In other words, there won't be an election until the second half of 2013. That renders almost all of the thousands of words of analysis every second Tuesday almost meaningless in the longer term. Perhaps now there will be a return to the logic of the past; that polls only really matter much closer to an election.
So at the end of a year like that, is there a winner? Certainly not between the two leaders. In terms of satisfaction ratings, both are well into negative territory. The trend though is better for Gillard than Abbott. The Prime Minister is finally starting to build some stature and authority. In that respect, impressions gained during the visit of US President Obama will be more lasting than opportunities missed during a party conference that most of the country missed.
Tony Abbott too, can reverse some of the negative views held about him. All he has to do is add some positives to the negative and the rest will follow. Now that he knows 2012 will not be an election year, his hand is forced anyway.
Imagine how far in front the Coalition would be if their leader wasn't so unpopular?
In terms of the two parties, the Labor Party can claim the year, for this reason.
In 2010, Julia Gillard negotiated a slender, precarious grip on power. By the end of 2011, she had virtually guaranteed the Government an extra two years in office.
That is not to deny the political prospects as they now sit, albeit well out from an election.
The Coalition is twice as likely as the Government to win the next election whenever it is held. But flattering opinion polls, while they deliver hope, do not deliver power.
Tony Abbott's task through 2012 is to deliver hope based on far more than poll numbers.
And Julia Gillard's task is to persuade the country that what she delivered in 2011 was worth delivering in the first place.
Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders.
Polls, pollies and policies: the year that was - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
