January 29, 2012
"It's not whether you love Kevin more or you love Kevin less, it's that you love your seat best!" ... Anna Bligh and Kevin Rudd on the campaign trail again. Photo: Paul Harris
KEVIN RUDD will use the election campaign in Queensland as the springboard for a renewed push to wrest the prime ministership back from Julia Gillard, Labor Party insiders predict.
The Foreign Minister, who represents the Brisbane seat of Griffith, has promised ''I will help any campaign that they want me to'' during the state election, which pits the Labor Premier, Anna Bligh, against the former Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, now Liberal National Party leader.
Labor insiders say Mr Rudd's involvement in the campaign for the March 24 election is designed to boost his profile, highlight the disparity in popularity between the former and present prime ministers, remind his caucus colleagues how crucial Queensland is in the next federal election - and inevitably stoke leadership tensions.
''This is all about the re-rise of Kevin,'' one former confidant of Mr Rudd said. ''Kevin is still a strong chance of coming back this year.''
But Mr Rudd's spokeswoman said: ''The sole purpose of Mr Rudd's involvement in the Queensland election is to support Labor and his good friend Anna Bligh in what will be a tough campaign.''
John Howard's former adviser, Grahame Morris, said federal Labor had to pick up four or five more seats in Queensland if it was to have any chance of retaining government.
''This election is important not only for Queenslanders, I think it's important for Julia Gillard,'' Mr Morris said. ''If it is shown that Labor is still very smelly in Queensland, then Kevin Rudd comes back into the equation because Kevin Rudd can pick up seats in Queensland.''
Ms Gillard is particularly unpopular in Queensland because of the way she deposed Mr Rudd and the perceived effect her carbon and mining taxes will have on the state.
''Labor is in trouble, so they pull out Queensland's favourite son,'' a former Labor Party official said. ''They'll keep Julia a million miles away from it because she is so unpopular.''
The veteran Labor campaign manager Bruce Hawker, who is running the Queensland campaign, said Mr Rudd would be welcomed for his campaigning skills, ''whatever happens in Canberra in the coming weeks and months''.
''If [leadership tension] becomes a byproduct of his campaigning, you accept there is always going to be residual feeling in the community about the manner of his dismissal in June 2010,'' Mr Hawker said. ''It's too early to speculate on anything there.''
Mr Rudd is not expected to make any move on the leadership until after the Queensland poll, which Labor is tipped to lose badly. The most recent Newspoll put it 12 percentage points behind the LNP on a two-party-preferred basis.
''If the result is very bad in Queensland for Labor, it will put enormous pressure on Julia Gillard,'' one senior Queensland party figure said. ''It will make Queensland MPs extremely nervous. Kevin will be telling them that a state wipeout will make it very hard to hold their seats. He's convincing people that only he can save them … it's not whether you love Kevin more or you love Kevin less, it's that you love your seat best.''
A loss would not only reinforce the impression Labor is on the nose in Queensland, but hurt the party's capacity to fight the federal election in the state. The state party machine would be in disarray and federal Labor could not draw on the powerful resources of a state government.
''We're going to have a very fractured party that has to fight a really tough election in 18 months' time,'' the former party official said.
