February 21, 2012 - 12:15PM Opinion
It seems as if the only thing people want to talk about today is the leadership of the Labor Party.
The media, fuelled by on-the-record and off-the-record commentary by members of caucus, are having a field day. Who is in the Rudd and Gillard camps? Who are the plotters and schemers? Who will win and who will lose? Would a second Rudd Government be better than the first? How will the Prime Minister respond?
Perhaps the most annoying feature of much of the commentary by sections of the caucus and media is the view that somehow there are "rules of engagement" that must be respected. For example some say it is up to the challenger to challenge, not for the leader to bring it on. My point here is not that the leader has to necessarily bring on a spill but that he or she has to deal with the issue in some form or another.
The notion that there will be a group of Labor politicians plotting against the leader – whoever that might be- between now and the next election is unacceptable and should be unthinkable!
From the outside looking in it seems that the Prime Minister is in a much stronger position than the Foreign Minister.
Firstly, significant members of the Cabinet are locking in behind her.
Secondly, it is clear that the animosity towards Kevin Rudd amongst many of his colleagues is so strong it is hard to imagine unity and stability within a second Rudd Government. Waverers in the caucus will worry about this.
The political reality is that the best – and probably only – circumstances in which Kevin Rudd could regain the Prime Ministership would be if (a) he had regained the respect and trust of former supporters and (b) the Gillard leadership collapsed. That it is under pressure is true but it hasn't collapsed. The Prime Minister is resilient and Kevin Rudd's position hasn't been helped by the campaign of his supporters to undermine her.
Counter to my argument is the proposition that the caucus will be influenced by the opinion polls which show the Foreign Minister as the preferred Prime Minister – and by a significant margin.
That this is worrying many of them is clear but when the heavy battalions in the government move in as they are doing it won't be enough to allay their fears about what a second Rudd Government would actually mean.
It's a case of a difficult, perhaps even awful but reasonably certain future, versus uncertainty and possibly chaos. That's how a majority of caucus will think. Some may even be reflecting on the difference between what the polling in 2010 said about the consequences of a move from Rudd to Gillard and what actually happened. Julia's "sins of ambition" in 2010 have become Kevin's in 2012!
The wider problem, of course, is with the government in general – it is not breaking through with its pitch on the economy and seems reluctant to go all out with a traditional Labor focus on fairness. It seems to be against or hesitant about more things than it supports.
It is very good at the politics of negotiation and compromise but continues to bleed in the face of right-wing populism and green fundamentalism. It has a strategy for making the best of a difficult situation but not one for winning a majority of votes.
Whatever happens with the leadership one can only hope that this question of electoral strategy will be given more attention.
Labor supporters and former voters all over the country yearn for some messages from their government that it will build on its economic record and work to create a better society but all they get in return is a lecture on the surplus.
