Doug Conway, AAP Senior Correspondent
From: AAP November 20, 2012 6:08PM
Former PM John Howard (pic) says Tony Abbott's rise to leadership led to Labor dumping Kevin Rudd. Source: AAP
KEVIN Rudd would still be prime minister if not for Tony Abbott's rise to the Liberal Party leadership, according to John Howard.
Mr Howard, Australia's second-longest-serving prime minister, said Mr Rudd was "spooked" by Mr Abbott on climate change, his poll ratings dropped, and his own party - spooked by that - installed Julia Gillard in his place.
"If Abbott had not been elected (Liberal) leader before the last election, Rudd would never have been thrown out by the Labor Party," Mr Howard said.
"And Rudd would have won the last election with a majority in his own right.
"Instead of Julia Gillard he would still be prime minister of Australia."
Mr Howard believes Mr Abbott will win next year's election and make an excellent prime minister.
Bob Hawke, however, thinks Mr Abbott is a liability for the Liberals and Ms Gillard is still a chance.
"Three months ago I wouldn't have considered a bet on Labor," said the party's longest-serving prime minister.
"But now we're moving towards a situation where with reasonable odds it would be an intelligent proposition to think about it."
Asked if Mr Abbott was the best thing going for Labor, Mr Hawke said: "I hope they don't swap him. The polls show Tony is not a plus for the conservative forces. There's an increasing rejection of Tony."
Mr Howard and Mr Hawke traded a few jocular jibes when they appeared together at a sold-out fundraiser for the Lifeline charity in Sydney on Tuesday.
Asked by moderator Ray Martin to nominate Australia's greatest leaders, other than themselves, Mr Hawke chose wartime Labor prime minister John Curtin.
When Mr Howard predictably named Liberal Sir Robert Menzies, Mr Hawke asked: "Why did they throw him out?" To which Mr Howard responded: "Your mob threw you out."
Asked if he was surprised that Mr Howard hadn't changed his opposition to gay marriage, Mr Hawke replied: "No. He's not a bad bloke, but he's a real bloody conservative."
Mr Howard said the next election would produce a "clear-cut result" with no repetition of a hung parliament.
He said Ms Gillard was handicapped by a lack of authority because she had replaced an elected prime minister in unusual circumstances, then failed to win an election in her own right.
But Mr Hawke countered that Ms Gillard had a significant legislative record in difficult circumstances, and people were starting to respond to her "enormous guts and determination".
Asked to nominate their own greatest achievements, Mr Hawke opted for bringing a "riven" country together again in the 1980s, while Mr Howard went for leading Australia into greater prosperity, strength and pride in the 1990s and beyond.
Their 900-strong audience included Malcolm Turnbull, the man Mr Abbott deposed as Liberal leader and who appeared on ABC TV's Q&A with Mr Rudd the previous night.
Predictably, the pair tagged "RuddBull" by a Q&A Twitter follower had discussed losing the leadership of their respective parties.
Their appearances prompted Mr Abbott to remark: "Malcolm will be a senior minister in the next coalition government. Kevin Rudd is on the outer, as long as Julia Gillard is the prime minister."
