Michael Gordon Political editor, The Age
April 15, 2013
Analysis
Julia Gillard's government is now trapped in a vortex of miserable morale, low expectations and sullied credibility - almost all of its own making and all neatly reflected in another shocker Age/Nielsen poll.
After the coup that collapsed, Labor's 29 per cent primary vote has a two in front of it for the first time since June last year, and Julia Gillard's dismal approval ratings are back where they were before last year's grinding comeback.
The numbers are so bad that they undermine any confidence that Labor will be around to implement the big picture policies it hopes will restore voter confidence and leave a lasting legacy - school funding reform and a National Disability Insurance Scheme.
Polling woes confirmed
Nielsen director John Stirton says Labor's previous period of gradual polling improvement is over and unlikely to return, with the PM's leadership style out of favour with respondents.
The promise of an extra $14.5 billion in public investment in schools over the next six years would resonate much more if there seemed a reasonable prospect of Labor still being in power in six months. As things stand, there isn't.
The plan unveiled on Sunday is bold and visionary, but invites its own tough set of questions: whether conservative states will come on board; whether it will be undermined by funding cuts to universities and the removal of the incentive for university students and parents to pay their fees up front; whether Gillard, Treasurer Wayne Swan and School Education Minister Peter Garrett can sell it.
The biggest question, however, is whether the voters have already written off this government and stopped listening - especially when it comes to plans that will be implemented years after the September 14 poll.
Source: April Fairfax/Nielsen poll.
Having executed one successful comeback in which Labor's and Gillard's ratings returned to competitive levels in the months after the carbon price was introduced, there seems little prospect of this happening twice - not least because of the internal doubts and divisions that propelled last month's fiasco of a leadership challenge without a challenger.
This is the third consecutive month when the Prime Minister's net approval rating - approval minus disapproval - is worse than minus-20. In the first half of last year, there were six such months before Gillard squared the ledger and pulled well clear of Tony Abbott.
Abbott leads an utterly ascendant opposition and enjoys an 8-percentage-point edge as preferred prime minister, but his own ratings provide a faint ray of light for Labor, perhaps its only ray of light.
While the Coalition leads Labor, 49 to 29, on the primary vote, Abbott leads Gillard by just 43 to 37 when it comes to the percentage of voters who approve of his performance.
Will the race tighten as more scrutiny is applied to the man who now looks a shoo-in to be our next PM?
