Photo: The question is whether Bill Shorten's qualifications are better suited to those of prime minister than opposition leader, a position rightly described as the hardest in politics. (AAP: David Crosling)
Detractors call him "Showbag Bill", with some saying his ego can be overbearing. But that hasn't stopped the advance of Bill Shorten who, as Mike Steketee writes, has more than a little in common with Labor's most successful prime minister, Bob Hawke.
Comparisons may be invidious but Bill Shorten is unlikely to complain about those who say he has more than a touch of Bob Hawke about him - at least not if we concentrate on the flattering parts...
After all, Hawke's four election wins made him the party's most successful leader and he left a reforming legacy now commonly used as a reference point for successful government.
Shorten comes to the Labor leadership without the high public profile and widespread appeal to voters that Hawke brought to the job. But he shares Hawke's skills as a communicator, with an ability to inspire audiences. He is a tireless self-promoter and networker, within the party, in the media and to the public at large.
Perhaps even more than Hawke, his ego and drive can be overbearing. It has led him to push down barriers that would cause a more patient person to hesitate. Rather than waiting for a vacancy, he played brutal factional politics to take the Melbourne seat of Maribyrnong from the sitting member and shadow minister, Bob Sercombe, so that he could enter parliament in the 2007 election. Loyalty sometimes takes second place to pragmatism and power politics. As the Abbott Government will endlessly remind us, he played a key role in first cutting down Kevin Rudd and then in restoring him to the leadership three years later. Though his relentless ambition has offended many in the Labor Party, it has not stopped his advance.
His wide political connections also are reminiscent of Hawke. He identifies easily with workers on the shop floor but has put much effort into cultivating relations with the big end of town. He obtained a Master of Business Administration from Melbourne University. His first marriage was to Deborah Beale, the daughter of former Liberal MP and prominent Victorian businessman Julian Beale, and he was close to Richard Pratt, the cardboard king. Hawke's friendship with businessmen such as Peter Abeles was held against him by the Labor left but seems unlikely to be a great handicap for Shorten, except amongst the remaining rump of Labor class warriors.
He identifies easily with workers on the shop floor but has put much effort into cultivating relations with the big end of town.
Shorten joined the procession of ambitious Labor politicians, Hawke among them, who have offered their credentials to the Americans for approval. In a cable released by WikiLeaks, the US consulate in Melbourne reported on a meeting in 2009 with "this young, ambitious Parliamentarian". He told the Consul-General "he did not take this job to stand still", even though he had been overlooked for promotion by Rudd. He was "highly critical" of current union leaders and drew a contrast with his own willingness to listen to business concerns. Despite his "somewhat rumpled" appearance, he seems to have passed the Washington test, with the report noting "he is widely known for his pro-US stance".
The other side to the no-holds-barred factional warrior is a broad political philosophy that could have been borrowed directly from Hawke. His instinct is for conciliation rather than confrontation. It is summed up in a sentiment he often expressed as a union leader and has repeated as a politician: we can spend all the time arguing about what we don't agree on or we can focus on the 90 per cent that we do agree on and get things done.
The labels attached to him as he waded through the quagmire of Labor politics included "Showbag Bill" and "Showbag Shorten" - that is, he is all style and no substance. But he has notched up successes. As national secretary, he restored the Australian Workers' Union to financial health and attracted new members.
The creation of a national disability insurance scheme is a case study in effective politics. When Kevin Rudd appointed Shorten as parliamentary secretary for disabilities, it struggled to get any recognition on the always crowded political agenda. Shorten dragged it into the mainstream by talking passionately in private and public about the need for reform, by urging disability groups to start speaking with one voice and to put pressure on the government of which he was a member. In other words, he assumed a role way beyond his then lowly status to push his issue to the political forefront.
That said, the Shorten style can run ahead of the substance. A rare note of disagreement during his contest with Anthony Albanese over the leadership occurred over Shorten's suggestion that the Labor Party consider extending quotas beyond women to others under-represented in parliament, such as Indigenous Australians and LGBTI - lesbians, gays, bi-sexual, transgender and intersex. Meant to appeal to the Labor rank-and-file, Albanese quickly realised the weakness of the proposal. He called it not practical or politically astute and added: "People's political contributions are not defined by their sexuality - that is just one aspect of a person and often a private aspect."
Shorten has shown an inclination towards thought bubbles. In 2005, as head of the AWU, he advocated dramatic tax reform, including a top income tax rate of 30 per cent. The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) estimated his proposal would reduce revenue by no less than $44 billion and increase taxes for some lower income earners. Shorten responded, "I don't pretend to have all the answers."
The question is whether his qualifications are better suited to those of prime minister than opposition leader, a position rightly described as the hardest in politics and all the more so for the person who takes over after an election defeat. Though not unprecedented at the state level for first-elected opposition leaders to go on to win government - Bob Carr in NSW is an example - the last to do so at the federal level was Andrew Fisher in 1914 and that was after he already had served two previous terms as prime minister.
Shorten's tenure may not be as precarious as that of most opposition leaders, thanks to the rule Rudd forced through the party requiring the support of 60 per cent of the Labor caucus for a leader to be removed. His instinct for conciliation over confrontation may appeal to voters but it is unlikely to take him far in opposition. As Tony Abbott demonstrated, opposition leaders generally are at their most effective when they concentrate on dragging governments down by means fair and foul.
In theory, opposition leaders can use the platform of parliament to establish their dominance, as Gough Whitlam did. But that was against vulnerable prime ministers - John Gorton and William McMahon. It is early days but Tony Abbott looks to be made of sterner stuff.
Mike Steketee is a freelance journalist. He was formerly a columnist and national affairs editor for The Australian. View his full profile here.
Bob's his uncle: Bill Shorten's path to power - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
