Mary Hamilton theguardian.com, Thursday 12 December 2013
'They are selling us a technology that’s already obsolete - this is the greatest con in Australian history,' critic claims
The strategic review effectively cancels the NBN rollout for almost a third of Australia. Photograph: Stefan Postles/AAP Image
Almost one in three Australian premises will miss out on pure fibre internet connections under the Coalition’s new NBN policy.
The strategic review, announced today, effectively cancels the NBN rollout for almost a third of the country, with those in areas already served by hybrid fibre-coaxial (HFC) networks receiving upgrades to that network but no new fibre-optic connections.
HFC networks carry data for cable TV signals as well as voice calling and internet data, and according to the review approximately 2.7m premises are already passed by Telstra and Optus’s networks, with another 700,000 premises within the geographic area.
HFC connections can struggle to deliver high speeds consistently for users at busy periods, because they become congested as more people log on.
The strategic review acknowledges that there is a need to upgrade the network, and suggests that by 2019 peak use of the networks will reach 4-7Mbps per user, and that expanding the existing HFC networks could deliver a user experience equivalent to 50Mbps download speed.
But that is still at the bottom end of the download speed the Coalition previously promised, with no commitments made as to minimum upload speed, calling into question the use of the network for video conferencing and other applications that require stable, consistent and symmetrical connections.
It fails to account for connection quality, reliability and other issues that Australia struggles with, and that fibre could alleviate, according to RMIT engineering lecturer Dr Mark Gregory.
“You might be able to get 100Mbps but there are concerns about the effectiveness of those connections, and how well they will be able to carry the traffic they need to carry,” he said.
The new strategy, dubbed the optimised multi-technology mix, will see 26% of premises reached by fibre to the premises (FTTP), Labor’s preferred technology.
Thirty percent will receive HFC connections, and 44% will get fibre to the node (FTTN) – the slower option which relies on copper wiring to carry data from fibre connections into homes and businesses.
NBN Co says this approach will increase revenues, reduce costs and deliver better internet speeds more quickly to more people, but critics say the technologies used mean it will not be able to deliver the hoped-for benefits to health, education, business and entertainment.
“They are selling us a technology that’s already obsolete,” said Gregory. “This is the greatest con in Australian history.”
The strategic review has been completed without knowledge of the state of Telstra’s copper network on which the FTTN rollout relies.
No trials of FTTN have been carried out in Australia, and the quality of Telstra’s copper remains very unclear – the unions claim it’s in a terrible state, while the managing director has defended it.
As Gregory points out, the new plan will see the Coalition’s FTTN rollout begin in earnest one year before the next election – and if they lose, he believes it’s unlikely that Labor would continue with that plan.
“Any sane government isn’t going to continue with FTTN,” he said. “One year in, the Coalition will have spent perhaps $10bn and completed perhaps 5% of their rollout, and if Labor gets back in that $10bn will have been written off.”
The strategic review does hold another option for the future: an upgrade path that would see FTTP rolled out across the country with 1Gbps download speeds for all by 2030.
That would bring the NBN to the speeds and coverage promised by Labor, and deliverable by June 2024 if the rollout proceeded under the revised outlook described today.
But it would be slower, more complicated and more expensive, again.
Coalition’s new NBN: one in three Australian premises will miss out | Technology | theguardian.com
