Shalailah Medhora Tuesday 30 June 2015
Opposition ahead of the government 53% to 47%, almost a direct reversal of the 2013 federal election result, according to Newspoll
Bill Shorten’s performance ratings are down in every major state. Photograph: Nikki Short/AAP
The Coalition has lost ground in each of the five major states since the last federal election, with Labor maintaining a small election-winning lead in the two-party preferred stakes, analysis of Newspolls shows.
The figures, published in the Australian on Tuesday, show Labor is ahead of the Coalition 53% to 47%, nearly a direct reversal of the 46.5% to 53.5% result at the September 2013 federal election.
The two major parties are neck and neck in New South Wales and Western Australia, on 50-50 each. The Coalition’s fortunes have tumbled more than eight percentage points in the western state since the September poll, making it the state of the most concern for the government.
Labor is most popular in Victoria, securing nearly seven percentage points since the poll to take it to 57% in the two-party preferred stakes.
But the figures are less cheery for the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, whose performance ratings are down in every major state since the 2013 poll, while his dissatisfaction rating is up across all jurisdictions.
Shorten has been under increasing pressure over allegations of impropriety while he was head of the Australian Workers Union. He will front the royal commission into trade union corruption early next month.
Only one-third of respondents were pleased with the opposition leader, while 50% were dissatisfied, giving him an approval rating of minus 17%. That soars to minus 20% in WA, but narrows to minus 9% in South Australia.
By comparison, Tony Abbott’s approval rating is more or less stable, registering 35% in the October quarter and 35% in the last quarter. But his approval rating is up one percentage point to 56%, giving him a net approval rating of minus 21%.
Victorians are least satisfied with the prime minister, giving him an approval rating of minus 30%, while Queenslanders are the most satisfied minus 7%.
Asked who would make the better prime minister, Australians are evenly divided, giving each leader 39%. But more than one in five voters – 22% – are uncommitted.
The analysis has a margin of error of 1.3% and is based on 5,771 interviews from NSW, Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA. The sample for Tasmania was too small to analyse on its own, while the ACT is added to the NSW sample.
Speculation of an early election increased during the last sitting fortnight of parliament but has died down since parliament rose for its six-week winter break.
