Katharine Murphy Deputy political editor Monday 6 July 2015
Opposition leader now rivalling prime minister for unpopularity, but two polls give Labor a comfortable two-party-preferred lead
Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are almost equally unpopular, polls find. Photograph: James Alcock/AAP
Labor has retained a six-point lead on the Coalition in the latest Ipsos poll, published by Fairfax Media, but both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s approval ratings have taken a hit.
Labor remains in an election-winning position and Bill Shorten is ahead of Tony Abbott on the Ipsos preferred prime minister measure – 43% to 39%.
A Newspoll published in the Australian late on Sunday night has Labor leading the Coalition 52% to the Coalition’s 48%.
The latest Newspoll has Abbott losing a two-month lead as preferred prime minister. Both leaders also recorded low personal satisfaction ratings, with Shorten on 28% and Abbott on 33%.
The Coalition has not been in front of Labor federally in any published opinion poll since early April 2014. There have been 151 polls published in that time.
Labor has been ahead on the two-party-preferred vote in 149 of those polls, and the major parties have been level pegging at 50-50 in two – one Essential poll in April 2014, and one Ipsos poll in May 2015.
A clear negative trend has been established against the Coalition government, and the only measures moving substantially from survey to survey are the leaders’ satisfaction ratings.
Shorten’s approval rating has declined in recent surveys. It’s down six points in this month’s Ipsos survey to 35% while his disapproval rating is up eight points to 55%.
Abbott’s approval rating is also down four points and his disapproval rating is up five points. The prime minister’s approval is on 36% and disapproval is on 59%.
Ipsos, a monthly survey of 1,402 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6%, has the Greens polling 16%, which is a stronger result than other major public opinion polls.
The latest Newspoll has the Greens on 13%. That survey size is 1,631, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Abbott and Shorten will take part in a summit in Sydney on Monday designed to progress the recognition of Indigenous Australians in the constitution.
It will be a significant political week for Shorten.
The Labor leader is scheduled to appear at the royal commission into trade unions in Sydney on Wednesday to answer questions about his time leading the Australian Workers’ Union, and the ALP will hold its national conference in Melbourne later this month.
A number of flashpoints at the conference remain unresolved.
The government has been attempting to focus on national security issues but internal divisions flared publicly last week over marriage equality.
A cross-party group wants to bring forward a same-sex marriage bill when federal parliament resumes in August. There is also a desire to have the Coalition party room meet to consider whether to grant a conscience vote on the legislation.
Conservative MPs have hit the airwaves over the past few days to argue that changing the Marriage Act could lead to polyamory, or prompt Asian neighbours to conclude Australia is decadent.
Coalition MPs who favour the change insist that all sides need to be heard and the debate should be conducted respectfully.
John Howard changed the Marriage Act in 2004 to define marriage as being between a man and a woman to stop the recognition of same-sex marriages conducted overseas.
The Liberal party’s pollster, Mark Textor, took to Twitter on Sunday night to express his view that the Abbott government faced no political risk if it chose to advance the reform.
“Same Sex marriage passed in UK and NZ. Witnessed both as pollster with incumbent Right governments. No loss of “base” vote. Both re-elected,” Textor said.
