Katharine Murphy Deputy political editor Tuesday 25 August 2015
Labor leads the two-party preferred vote 54% to the Coalition’s 46%, while Tony Abbott’s popularity falls three points to 30% after horror parliamentary fortnight
Bill Shorten and Tony Abbott at a reception for the Australian netball team after their World Cup victory. Shorten’s net satisfaction rating is ahead of the prime minister’s for the first time since May. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has improved his personal standing with voters in the latest Newspoll survey, which continues to point to an emphatic ALP victory if a federal election was held immediately.
The latest poll of 1,700 voters published in the Australian has Labor ahead of the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure 54% to the Coalition’s 46% – and the Coalition’s primary vote also slipped below Labor’s.
Coalition at risk of losing Canning by-election, poll shows
Latest Newspoll puts Coalition’s margin in the formerly safe seat held by Don Randall at just 51%-49% in two-party-preferred terms
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After a horror parliamentary fortnight for Tony Abbott, Shorten’s personal approval ratings lifted by five points, and his dissatisfaction rating fell by the same amount. Shorten’s net satisfaction rating is ahead of the prime minister’s for the first time since May.
The prime minister’s satisfaction rating was also down three points in the survey to 30%, and dissatisfaction with his performance went up two points. Shorten is ahead of Abbott on the preferred prime minister measure.
Labor has now been ahead of the Coalition in two-party preferred terms in more than 150 consecutive published opinion polls. This latest Newspoll is the 29th consecutive survey that has put Labor in front of the Abbott government.
On Tuesday the treasurer, Joe Hockey, brushed off the poll findings, saying the government could bounce back.
“I saw this in 2004, I saw it in 1998,” he told the Nine Network.
“I have seen it previously, where we have gone on to win an election, even weeks and months just after those sort of polls.
The government faces a by-election in the West Australian seat of Canning next month following the death of long serving MP Don Randall. That contest looms as a test of Abbott’s leadership.
Coalition facing huge election defeat after horror weeks, latest poll shows
Fairfax-Ipsos poll puts Labor lead at 54%-46% on two-party-preferred basis, implying the loss of between 36 and 44 Coalition seats
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A number of government MPs are deeply concerned about the negative poll trend, about erratic decision-making, and about rolling divisions within senior ranks of the government.
The last fortnight saw various cabinet ministers engage in open warfare about same sex marriage, and a significant split emerge between the prime minister and his chief parliamentary tactician, Christopher Pyne.
The government’s trade union royal commission – a process which was applying political pressure to Shorten over his trade union history – also ran into significant strife, with commissioner Dyson Heydon having to hear submissions over whether he should excuse himself from proceedings after it was revealed he had intended to address a Liberal party fundraiser.
Heydon’s decision is pending.
The prime minister is attempting to get the government’s central political messaging back to jobs and growth, but he will spend the next week in remote Indigenous communities.
The treasurer Joe Hockey on Monday flagged the prospect of future income tax cuts – but refused to answer questions about how the government would fund such a move.
