Phillip Coorey
August 30, 2011
"The only certainty is that if they don't pull off this reform, I will withdraw my support" ... independent MP Andrew Wilkie, centre. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
THE federal independent MP Andrew Wilkie says he and the Liberals have been discussing the issue of preferences in his Tasmanian seat of Denison, amid speculation of a push by the opposition to convince him to abandon support for the Gillard government.
Senior Liberals confirmed to the Herald yesterday that the party would most likely give its preferences to Mr Wilkie if he abandoned the government.
But they rejected suggestions a specific deal had been offered, saying that would amount to inducement, which is not allowed.
''We would be unlikely to preference Wilkie if he hangs on to the government for the next couple of years,'' a senior Liberal said.
''But if the government changes, then we would be much more inclined to support Wilkie than Labor.''
Mr Wilkie meets regularly with the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, as well as senior shadow ministers to discuss portfolio-specific matters.
He declined to say yesterday with whom he had discussed preferences or the details of the discussions.
''The matter of preferences comes up very occasionally during broader discussions with members of the Liberal Party,'' he said through a spokeswoman. ''But there have been no preference negotiations, nor do I anticipate preferencing any party at the next election.''
Of the senior Liberals contacted, all claimed never to have raised the issue with Mr Wilkie.
Thanks to Liberal preferences, Mr Wilkie narrowly won the safe Labor seat at the 2010 federal election. If he is to retain the seat at the next election, it is most likely he will again need Liberal preferences, especially if he wins the most primary votes with the Liberal candidate second and the Labor candidate third.
One senior Liberal said Mr Wilkie was aware that at the moment Labor was so unpopular that its candidate would most likely come third in Denison.
Of the four lower house crossbenchers keeping Labor in power, Mr Wilkie is seen by the Liberals as the one most likely to abandon the government before the full term.
Appearing on the ABC's Insiders program on Sunday, Mr Wilkie reiterated that he would abandon the government by the end of May next year - more than a year before the next election is due - if Parliament had not passed legislation allowing the Commonwealth to override the states to mandate pre-commitment technology on poker machines.
The legislation is unlikely to pass and the Coalition opposes it, but Mr Wilkie said it was part of the deal he had signed with the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, and it was non-negotiable.
''The only certainty is that if they don't pull off this reform, I will withdraw my support,'' Mr Wilkie said.
He then said he would support any motion of no confidence in the government moved by the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott.
This would trigger an election which, based on the current polls, would put Mr Abbott in power.
One of the senior Liberals said it was hoped that Mr Wilkie would abandon the Gillard government before the May 2012 deadline, should its standing continue to deteriorate.
''If the government continues to be such a rabble, he could decide 'it's not working for me' and withdraw his support,'' the senior Liberal said.
''No one would have a clear majority and the Governor-General would call an election.''
