October 1, 2011
"Last time Kevin Rudd and I were up against each other, the Labor Party dumped Kevin Rudd" ... opposition leader Tony Abbott. Photo: Justin McManus
THE Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, has indicated he does not fear Labor replacing Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd, saying he has seen him off once before.
With Mr Rudd now firmly in the frame as the replacement should Labor change leaders again, Mr Abbott predicted yesterday such a move would only hasten the government's demise.
''My instinct all along has been that this government is fragile and impermanent and I think that, if there's a leadership change, that would just add to the fragility and the impermanence,'' he said.
A Galaxy poll published yesterday reflected the findings of the most recent Herald/Nielsen poll, which found Mr Rudd was streets ahead as preferred Labor leader. The Herald poll also found that Labor would be restored to an election-winning lead under Mr Rudd.
Mr Abbott said this boost in support would be ephemeral.
''Certainly if Kevin Rudd were to become leader, I suspect his popularity would peak the day after any leadership handover.''
Labor replaced Mr Rudd in June last year, seven months after Mr Abbott became the Opposition Leader and the government began to collapse.
''Last time Kevin Rudd and I were up against each other, the Labor Party dumped Kevin Rudd,'' Mr Abbott said.
The Coalition is preparing for a snap election should there be a leadership change. Inside the Labor Party, there is no discernible momentum for a rapid move against Ms Gillard but chatter about the leadership is chronic as the party's primary vote languishes below 30 per cent.
While the factional bosses who pushed Mr Rudd are sticking with Ms Gillard, most MPs accept that if the polls do not improve, it is inevitable there will be a change of leadership, the only question being when.
Most accept it would be prudent to wait until next year.
One Labor MP said it would be much easier if Ms Gillard chose to step aside but neither he nor his colleagues could envisage her doing that for Mr Rudd.
The demands by the Tasmanian independent MP Andrew Wilkie for technology providing for mandatory precommitment on playing poker machines is helping to destabilise Labor ranks.
One theory being pushed is that Mr Rudd will stare down Mr Wilkie and his demands. If Mr Wilkie makes good on his threat and withdraws his support for the government, supporters of Mr Rudd suggest the former prime minister could woo Bob Katter, to whom he is close.
One Rudd supporter, who is a recent convert, said that ultimately, no one was prepared to march towards certain loss.
Mr Rudd has become highly visible in recent days, attending an indigenous ceremony in western NSW, reading to school children in Brisbane and, yesterday, delivering a lecture on the Group of 20 and its critical role in sorting out the economic mess in Europe.
Yesterday, Mr Rudd flew to Papua New Guinea for talks with the new Prime Minister, Peter O'Neill. Among items to be discussed will be Australia's on-hold plan for an offshore detention centre in Manus Island. Mr Rudd does not support offshore processing.
