Paul Kelly, Editor-at-large From: The Australian
October 01, 2011 12:00AM
Tony Abbott is a conservative who shuns government-engineered schemes to remake the existing order. Picture: Stuart McEvoy Source: The Australian
FROM the progressive Left that loathes him to the right-wing free market lobby that distrusts him, Tony Abbott's political character as cautious, conservative and pragmatic remains the source of denial and alarm.
Abbott has been the most misunderstood leader of a major political party for many years. Blunder after blunder has been perpetrated by his opponents because they have failed to see what is in front of their eyes, and what Abbott represents.
The two great myths are Abbott as extremist and Abbott as ideologue. The Australian public shuns such traits and Abbott's poll ratings affirm this is not how the public sees him. The effort to paint Abbott as extremist and ideologue, once Labor's central strategy, has failed so far.
Labor, however, cannot give up. Undermined by its own dysfunction, it will keep playing the Abbott card because it has few other options and is convinced he is a destructive force unfit to become prime minister. Labor's last hope remains a bet against Abbott's political character.
This week Peter Costello, who understands Abbott better than most, rapped him over the knuckles for being too soft and cautious on industrial relations reform. Costello's complaint is that Abbott ruled out individual statutory contracts, a policy legislated by the Howard government in 1996 on Coalition and Australian Democrat votes, long before Work Choices. Abbott, in short, has positioned himself to the left of the Australian Democrats circa 1996. Sound extreme to you? No wonder Costello is unhappy.
In his book Battlelines, Abbott attacked Work Choices as "a catastrophic political blunder". Indeed, he was one of the least enthusiastic ministers when the Howard cabinet agreed to the policy. Abbott is making crystal clear his attitude in office to industrial relations - he will operate within Julia Gillard's existing laws. Radical IR reform is simply off Abbott's radar. The employer groups will need to get their heads around this reality.
Costello's pot shot follows that from Abbott backer and former finance minister Nick Minchin in the partyroom in May accusing Abbott of failing the "good reform" test by not supporting a Labor excise increase. In short, Abbott was too soft and cautious for Minchin's taste on fiscal discipline.
Such critiques penetrate both to Abbott's style and substance. Abbott, in case you missed it, does not seek a fifth term for the Howard-Costello government. As far as Abbott is concerned, that government is over. Abbott runs for a first-term Abbott government. It will be different in policy and style, even though John Howard remains his model.
How will it be different? Well, Abbott's first-term game plan is on the table now. It will be dominated by four items that reflect Abbott's conservatism applied to the times: the dismantling of the carbon price scheme (the most substantial and risky dismantling of any policy in Australian history), the scaling back and re-defining of the National Broadband Network, the removal of the mining tax and hefty spending cuts to achieve the promised fiscal consolidation. How much detail the Coalition provides on the fiscal side remains to be seen and it refuses to get its policy costed by any government agency. This agenda is heavily negative, but Abbott's retort is the public doesn't buy Labor's reform edifices and wants them dismantled.
Abbott's instinctive reply to Minchin in their partyroom exchange was memorable. He said faced with a choice between "policy purity and political pragmatism, I'll take pragmatism every time". It is the antithesis of ideology.
As for tactics, Abbott is tracking Howard's 1996 campaign. Just as Howard dismissed any GST, so Abbott dismisses IR reform to counter Labor's inevitable Work Choices scare. Abbott will give Labor nothing - no opening, no break against him. Abbott operates on the assumption of Kevin Rudd's possible return thereby reviving Labor's vote. How dumb would Abbott be to devise bold and risky policies against a weak Gillard only to gift a resurrected Rudd fresh weapons to use against him and reverse the political equation? For the record, Abbott won't be that dumb.
Much of the current debate misses the way Abbott frames the political future. His objective is to win and win big. Abbott wants the Australian people to mandate his judgment against Labor and to authorise his dismantling of the Gillard-Rudd legacy. The next election is the opposite of 2010: it will be a turning point poll between radically different programs.
Abbott now says his agenda may require two elections, an initial victory and then a double dissolution election to abolish Labor's carbon pricing scheme. Abbott can only prevail with an overwhelming majority in the country. Consider the situation he would face as PM: a hostile Senate, an antagonistic Labor Party and Greens, opinion-making forums horrified that Australia would repudiate carbon pricing, reject the international campaign for emissions trading and repeal such a pro-market economic reform.
Above all, Abbott knows his prime ministership would be destroyed unless he delivers on his promise to repeal carbon pricing. It is his first, second and third priority. Abbott's rejection of carbon pricing, the platform on which he won the leadership, remains his greatest gamble. The verdict on it will come from global events, notably whether the world moves towards or against emissions trading.
Meanwhile the bigger, disputed question remains: who is Tony Abbott?
There are three truths about Abbott. First, he has a conservative set of values that he champions yet his policy outlook is highly flexible and pragmatic (witness his famous changes of mind on multiculturalism, hospitals, carbon pricing and paid parental leave, among others).
Because Abbott is seen to stand for enduring values he gets away with multiple policy switches with impunity.
Second, unlike leaders of the past generation Abbott is not defined by economics and does not wear free-market economics as his badge. This is a sharp break from Paul Keating, John Hewson, Costello and even Howard. If Abbott wins, it will become a departure point for Australia. Abbott told me back in 2003: "I have never been as excited about economics as some of my colleagues." An understatement.
Throughout his life, Abbott's social philosophy has been paramount. He is a libertarian in neither personal nor economic terms. Abbott has never hidden this truth, declaring that while many Liberals stress the "individual" and "choice" his message is always "individuals as part of the social fabric".
For Abbott, it is society, family and community that count. Individualism must always be seen within society. This is the powerful legacy of his Catholicism. It has been apparent at each stage of his life, trainee priest, journalist, community volunteer and MP.
It is what makes Abbott a different Liberal leader and what makes the Abbott Liberal Party different. Such philosophy is likely to be popular with the public but hardly encouraging to free-market reform.
Third, Abbott is a community based politician rather than an inside-the-beltway policy wonk. He is bright enough and arrogant enough to think he doesn't necessarily need to genuflect before the latest policy advice or conventional wisdom (think carbon pricing or mining tax).
Abbott is a natural populist and has materialised into something Labor never imagined - a potent threat to its voting base.
The only basis for seeing Abbott as a radical lies in the fusion of his populism and social values. The feminists preaching his infamy are clueless, with Abbott easily batting away their attacks: "Am I worried about the extent of abortions and family breakdown today? Yes, I am worried. Do I intend in office to legislate against abortion and family breakdown? No, I don't." With this formula he projects his values yet claims immunity from imposing them.
Where Labor was convinced Abbott would narrow the Coalition's appeal, the opposite has happened with Abbott widening its appeal, a point verified by applying this test in terms of regions, class and values.
The Coalition is strong in the resource states of Queensland and Western Australia, much of NSW, manages to hold its own in the southern states.
Analysis by class shows Abbott is stealing the working-class vote through his persona and ability to re-mobilise the so-called Howard battlers. On values, Abbott embodies the large-scale transfer of the Catholic vote from Labor to Liberal. This is symbolised not just by his Democratic Labor Party origins but by the December 2009 Liberal leadership contest involving Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey, each of them Catholic, a situation inconceivable in the Menzian Liberal Party and testimony to the widening of the conservative net.
Abbott's political character has long been obvious: he is a conservative who shuns government-engineered schemes to remake the existing order, from carbon pricing to the republic.
Where does Abbott's conservatism lead him on the economy? The answer lies in the basics: low tax, small government, fiscal surplus. It is part of the Howard-Costello legacy (not always delivered) that Abbott accepts and would pursue in office.
Does Abbott work as a political package? So far he has exceeded expectations for many of the above reasons. It will be hard for Labor to halt Abbott's momentum from this point. The bigger question for the country, however, is whether the Abbott package works in office or becomes the train wreck that Labor expects.
