November 14, 2011
Turnbull predicts two elections in six months
Coalition MP Malcolm Turnbull predicts a double dissolution election if Tony Abbott becomes Prime Minister and the Senate blocks his plans to repeal the carbon tax.
JULIA GILLARD'S personal standing among voters has rebounded strongly while the Coalition continues to hold a commanding election-winning lead, despite it slipping a little.
The Herald/Nielsen poll also offers the government encouragement by showing majority public support for its next reform challenge - the mining tax - which it hopes to have through Parliament early next year.
Of those polled, 53 per cent support the mining tax while 38 per cent are opposed.
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's approval rating has leapt 6 percentage points to 39 per cent according to the latest Herald/Nielsen poll. Photo: Andrew Meares
The poll of 1400 voters, taken from Thursday night to Saturday night, shows that after a businesslike month for the government, its fortunes have failed to lift significantly but Ms Gillard's approval rating has leapt 6 percentage points to 39 per cent.
Her disapproval rate has fallen 5 points to 57 per cent.
After trailing for four months, Ms Gillard has pulled level with Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. She is level-pegging the Opposition Leader on 45 per cent after his rating fell 3 points.
The recovery should scotch for some time any lingering talk about the leadership.
The poll follows a month in which Ms Gillard has passed the carbon price legislation through Parliament, presided over the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Perth and dealt with the Qantas dispute. The poll finds Qantas is regarded as the chief villain in that dispute although more people also disapprove of the role played by Ms Gillard and the unions as well.
Last week, she moved back to core Labor business by announcing the Commonwealth would contribute $2 billion over six years to bolster the wages of the lowly paid and predominantly female social and community sector workers.
Labor's primary vote stayed steady at 30 per cent while the Coalition's fell 3 points to 45 per cent. The Greens vote lifted 2 points to 14 per cent.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor by 55 per cent to 45 per cent. This lead has narrowed 4 points in a month but still represents a 5 per cent swing to the Coalition since the August 21, 2010 election.
Mr Abbott's approval rating stayed unchanged at 41 per cent and his disapproval rating was steady at 54 per cent.
If an election were held now, the Coalition would win in a landslide. Mr Abbott, who has spent the past week in London, continues to demand an early election.
His predecessor, Malcolm Turnbull, concurred with Mr Abbott yesterday that there would be a second, double-dissolution election within months if the Coalition won government but the Labor and Greens-controlled Senate refused to let it rescind the price on carbon. ''[If] the Labor Party were defeated they may choose to roll over but you'd have to assume they wouldn't,'' he said.
''If the Senate voted against it, we'd be back to the polls perhaps within six months or so of an election at a double dissolution to try to get over the Senate deadlock.''
Mr Abbott has previously said he would hold a double dissolution to settle the issue.
The numbers in this poll for and against the mining tax are almost a reversal of those for and against the carbon tax.
The last poll a month ago found 59 per cent opposed the carbon tax and 37 per cent supported it. Mr Abbott has also vowed to repeal the mining tax.
Ms Gillard, who is in Hawaii for the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit, and Mr Abbott both return to Australia this week in time for the arrival on Wednesday of the US President, Barack Obama.
On Thursday, Ms Gillard and Mr Obama will announce a boost in the US military presence in Australia.
