November 19, 2011
Opinion
EDITORIAL
THE polls are yet to let voters have their say but it is likely that most Australians will approve, initially at least, of the Gillard government's open-armed embrace of the US alliance, and this week's announcement of closer military co-operation. Certainly the move will be popular in the Northern Territory where an enlarged military base and routine visits by thousands of cashed-up US Marines will bring solid economic benefits.
The pictures day after day of President and Prime Minister greeting, smiling, embracing, shaking hands and the rest reflect a genuine friendship between two leaders, but also a broader and deeper relationship between two nations which share many values and a long history of co-operation and military alliance.
But Australia's acquiescence in what will in effect be a low-level US military build-up in the NT goes beyond a simple gesture of friendship. The decision is a significant turn in the direction of Australia's foreign policy. This country had been negotiating a potentially tricky course part-way between two powerful countries, the US and China. The helm has now been turned decisively to one side.
There has been a good deal of diplomatic camouflage around the move. Australia has not agreed to a new US base on its soil. The marines will be stationed at an Australian base and their movements subject to Australian approval. That is presumably intended to satisfy those who, like the Greens and some on Labor's Left, fear or resent any reduction in Australian sovereignty.
In practice, though, Australian approval for US troop movements or operations is unlikely ever to be withheld. In effect, the US has a new base but quite possibly paid for by Australians. The opposition would like to call a spade a spade and declare the base a joint facility. That shows admirable candour but it may not be a vote-winner. Alliances may be close, but closeness has its limits.
China has played up its own opposition to the decision, too. But the annoyance it has expressed in official English-language publications should be understood in context. Australia is a long-standing US ally. Beijing may not have expected this particular move but it will not be a complete surprise. Much of the heat in the Chinese response can be discounted but its awareness of a fundamental change in the direction of Australian foreign policy cannot.
Is this latest strategic move a case of Australia bringing the US in on its side to face China? Or is it the US bringing Australia onside? The analyst Hugh White believes it is the latter, and points to previous ambivalence within the Australian defence and diplomatic establishment towards following Washington too closely in its confrontation with Australia's biggest trading partner. Certainly the move suits Washington's and the Obama administration's interests.
It consolidates the US presence in the Pacific and helps redefine a more aggressive US stance towards China. In doing so, Obama moves the focus of US foreign policy from Bush-era priorities in the Middle East towards what his administration chooses to define as a threat - a China rising in economic prosperity and military power. The extent and intensity of his criticism of Chinese shortcomings - in trade, currency manipulation and territorial claims, not to mention the old favourite, freedom - during his recent trip make it clear that facing China down is central to his refurbished foreign policy agenda.
In Australia, the move initially seems surprising for Labor, a party on the side of politics which has been most suspicious of great-power alliances and concerned to assert Australian independence and self-reliance in foreign policy. But in recent years Labor has reshaped itself in several areas to fit a more conservative mould. Just as it is determined to impress voters with its fiscal conservatism, so too is it keen to show itself willing to embrace a less assertive foreign policy.
The fundamental question, though, is: does the move suit Australia's interests? If, god forbid, it came to a showdown between the US and China, Australians would, without any doubt, choose to side with the former - regardless of our close economic ties with the latter. But though relations between the US and China may have difficulties - some of them severe - things are a long way from conflict. Australia's friendship with the US is well known. It is not taken for granted, either here or in Washington. We have nothing to prove. Similarly, this country has been a good friend to China during its recent rapid economic development, and would benefit greatly from continuing good relations. Australia would have had much to gain from keeping to its middle course between two great powers. Having taken sides early, though, we have taken a risk. We will find out in coming years how much was at stake in that premature decision.
What else are allies for?
FORGIVE us for being suspicious but wasn't it a bit too convenient that our reporter Dylan Welch just happened to be scanning a gutter 100 metres from Parliament House and found the full schedule for Barack Obama's visit? We've read Le Carre and Clancy and Ludlum and the rest. We know what goes on. Men in trench coats with hats pulled down over their eyebrows are constantly to be found rummaging through the bins and gutters of snowy northern capitals in search of dead drops. They are laughably easy to foil with red herrings such as this one. We were meant to find this document, with its second-by-second details of the President's itinerary and whom to ring if there's an emergency and he needs air strikes or a full missile launch. This book is a fake, you mark our words. If we tried to ring up US Air Combat Command on the number in the book and gave them the code word and told them to take out our long-term enemy, we doubt we'd get very far. Besides, now the World Cup is over and said enemy has won it, there is little point. Come to think of it our cricketers could use some extra firepower. Perhaps the missiles could be pointed a few thousand kilometres to the west. Just to try them out, you understand.
