Lenore Taylor guardian.co.uk, Sunday 30 June 2013 09.17 AEST

Australia's new prime minister must skimp and patch without a lost generation of Labor ministers

Kevin Rudd, right, with his new deputy, Anthony Albanese. Photo: The Global Mail/Mike Bowers

Modern Labor has become the party that ate itself.

Much of an entire generation of political talent and experience has been consumed by the Rudd/Gillard leadership feud. They have resigned from the frontbench or will leave politics altogether rather than serve under a leader they cannot follow, or because they are exhausted or disillusioned by the saga.

Some turnover in a ministry is normal, people move on and new talent is rewarded.

But six years after John Howard's first ministry was sworn in, 10 of the original members were still sitting around the cabinet table.

When Kevin Rudd began preparing a ministry last week, almost six years after his first one, only four of his original team remained. After the upheavals of deposing two prime ministers and two other leadership spills in just three years, Jenny Macklin, Anthony Albanese, Penny Wong and Tony Burke were the only cabinet members still standing.

Eight ministers left as Rudd took over, some taking personal decisions at the end of a parliamentary term, but many because they could not or would not work with him. Julia Gillard and the former treasurer Wayne Swan left the ministry, of course, but also Greg Combet, Peter Garrett, Stephen Smith, Stephen Conroy, Craig Emerson and Joe Ludwig.

Now Combet – highly respected and seen as a possible future leader of the party – has announced that like Gillard, Garrett, Smith and Emerson he is putting his political life behind him.

He said his "reasons are personal and are not attributable to the change in the leadership of the Labor party this week, although this has provided a catalyst for my decision". For Labor, it is an enormous loss.

And these departures follow a long list of talented politicians who have already gone, or who are in the process of leaving, such as Lindsay Tanner, Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans.

Other Gillard supporters, such as Tony Burke and Gary Gray, have said they are staying on at the new prime minister's insistence, but the truce could be uneasy.

Some Rudd supporters forced out after backing him in the March ballot in which he did not stand are likely to return. Chris Bowen is treasurer and Kim Carr and Simon Crean seem set to resume their cabinet status. Former whip Joel Fitzgibbon would also be promoted.

But other Rudd backers, such as Martin Ferguson and Robert McClelland, had already locked in their plans to leave.

Making a virtue of the necessity of filling such enormous gaps, Rudd has announced that three women will join his cabinet, taking female representation to its highest level ever.

They are the Victorian senator Jacinta Collins – previously a parliamentary secretary, who will take the portfolio of mental health – Victorian Catherine King and Tasmanian Julie Collins, who were formerly in the outer ministry. King takes the portfolio of regional Australia and Collins homelessness and the status of women. West Australian Melissa Parke joins the outer ministry with the portfolio if international development (aid).

The strain of governing while a civil war was waged inside the party was most evident when it lifted – the sudden reappearance in Peter Garrett's valedictory speech of the passion that made him famous, an unburdened Wayne Swan in a hoodie drinking coffee the day after the coup, the frontbencher confiding with wonderment that for the first time in many years he had had time the previous evening to get a little bit drunk.

The new ministry will be announced and sworn in on Monday. There are enough experienced people left for Rudd to craft a credible frontbench team – but only just. The self-inflicted and lasting cost of this period for Labor is enormous.

 

Kevin Rudd faces threadbare options as he puts together his cabinet | World news | guardian.co.uk

Marieke Hardy, Ben Eltham, Stella Young, Celeste Tiddle, Ben Pobjie

guardian.co.uk, Friday 28 June 2013 09.20 AEST

The dust has settled. Kevin Rudd is in. But what does Labor need to tackle, policy wise, to win against Tony Abbott?

Kevin Rudd is sworn in as prime minister again in 2013. Photograph: Mike Bowers/Global Mail

Marieke Hardy: What Labor needs now is unity

All of us have experienced the horrors of a bad boss. The boss who is a bad communicator, the boss who expects us to work late when we're unwell, the boss we secretly dream of ditching by means of a brilliant riposte and a swift, well-timed kick of their umbrella stand on the way out. Kevin Rudd was once that boss. When the smoke of this chaotic week clears, he may still be. But that's Labor's problem now. And the onus is on them to deal with it internally, o fold over their chaotic hotbed of thrusts and parries and neatly stitch the past closed. To get on, in short, with the effing job.

Unity can't be that hard. All they need do is glance over the game plan of the Coalition after that last, distant leadership spill in 2009 and follow suit. Turnbull v Abbott. Even Joe Hockey gamely threw his hat into the ring back then, though presumably afterwards he simply high-fived everybody and insisted he had only been joking. After Abbott faced the media with a few muttered platitudes about remaining gracious, that was it – Hockey and Turnbull fell seamlessly into line, and the Coalition presented as a plausibly functional family unit.

Turnbull's teeth must be ground down to nubs by now. And yet he perseveres. Why? Because the Coalition understand, better than most, the meaning of "the greater good". For all that has come before, Labor must now shut up and unite. With dignity and with honour. It can't be that hard.

Celeste Liddle: Labor needs to re-engage with its left wing

I feel depleted over the Labor party's recent leadership change. Labor has been considered Australia's left-wing party since its inception. At this point in time though, through a number of their policies as well as their lack of solidarity particularly as leadership spill rumours swirled and Gillard continued to be attacked on the basis of her gender, I feel they have isolated a large proportion of their socialist left and have appeared politically weak. A number of my peers have expressed uncertainty and dismay at the choices going into this election and believe that the centre of Australian politics has shifted so far right that a powerful party with clear and humane social policies is currently lacking.

To win the election, I feel the Labor party needs to re-engage with its left wing. It could regain some lost votes if it looked at embracing a more humane policy on asylum seekers. It could regain votes if it committed to working collaboratively with Indigenous communities across the country, rather than just continuing the NT Intervention under a different name and rolling it out to affect more people. Reinstating university funding rather than cutting it again, this time to fund the Gonski reforms, makes sense for a party that believes in quality education for all. The ALP should make a particular effort to embrace the many women and men who fight for gender equality and who are feeling quite shaken right now. More than anything though, the ALP needs to show strength, leadership and solidarity.

Ben Eltham: Their best chance? To build a time machine

It's hard to see what the government could do to win from here. When you look at the cold hard numbers, the government's task is nearly hopeless.

Labor's parlous standing in the electorate means that Rudd starts this campaign at something like 18 points behind in the primary vote, or 12 points down in two-party preferred terms. Even a spectacularly successful campaign might hope to pull back seven or eight points. Bridging the current divide looks unimaginable.

The 2010 results have left a swag of ALP seats on razor-thin majorities; even a slight swing to Tony Abbott will deliver the Coalition six to 10 gains. For instance, Corangamite, Deakin, Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, and Moreton are all on margins of 1.2% or less. But it gets worse. To retain government, Labor actually needs to poll better than the Opposition, not merely repeat the result last time. The retirement of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor almost certainly gives two seats to the Coalition. Throw in Craig Thomson's seat of Dobell and Labor's electoral pendulum is already calibrated in the negative by three seats.

The government's eroded economic credibility and poor ratings on border security means that the traditional tactics of showering the electorate with tax cuts and running a fear campaign on asylum seekers are compromised, even if Labor might try them anyway. Perhaps Rudd hopes that by putting enough pressure on Abbott, he can induce a 2007-style campaign meltdown from the opposition leader. But with the Coalition this far ahead, even that might not be enough.

Labor's best chance of winning the election is to build a time-machine. If Rudd could transport the nation back to early 2010, he could avoid some of the critical errors he committed on the way to being dumped the first time. What a shame the government has recently cut back on research funding.

Stella Young: Rudd needs to inspire Australians again

On 1 July 2013, the lives of many Australians will change for the better. Monday is the day the National Disability Insurance Scheme moves from being an idea to a reality. In several launch sites around Australia, people with disabilities will finally be able to start making concrete plans for their futures.

For decades, we have not only been left off the political agenda and grumbled about as a "problem"; we've been locked up (sometimes literally) and left behind. As my girl Florence (of The Machine) Welch would say, the "dog days are over". That's how this feels; like it's finally time for us to be aspirational. A friend of mine who has lived with seriously inadequate support for the last 10 years is brimming with ideas about what kind of career she might embark on now that she'll be able to shower more than twice a week. Such is the magnitude of this change.

Indeed, aspiration is one of the fundamental principles of this reform. It's reminiscent of when Rudd became prime minister in the Rudd-slide of 2007. Australians were so ready for change. It was our Obama moment, and the aspiration for a different kind of Australia to the one we knew was palpable.

A return to the aspiration Australians associated with Rudd could be Labor's best chance. Just as we've changed the conversation about disability, from one that framed us as problems and burdens, to one in which we represent citizens with great untapped potential, we can change the way we talk about what kind of country we want to be. The leaders of our nation are supposed to move us to aim higher and do better. At least that'd be a damn good place to start.

Ben Pobjie: When everything fails ... it's time to explore Plan B

A political party's prime purpose is to develop positive policies for the betterment of the country. But the voters don't really seem to like it when you do that, so it's probably time for Labor to stop it. What the Australian people really want from their politicians is aggression. Voters want to feel that a political party is willing to rip shreds off its opposition on their behalf.

So it's time for the Labor party to become as nasty as possible. It should focus its attentions on Abbott, obviously: attack his ears, the weird way he walks, his ill-fitting suits, his inability to start a sentence without saying "ah", and anything else they can think of. Also, try to use as many hilarious catchphrases as possible: for example "the LIEberal party", "the leader of the STROPposition", "Christopher WHINE", "LNP must stand for Little Nerdy Pussies". That sort of thing.

Rumours are also useful: if Labor can spread a few rumours about what Julie Bishop puts in her hair to make it stay that way, it'll sow doubt in voters' minds as to whether she is the sort of person heading the country. The important thing is to keep it simple. People don't like governments that go on and on about "doing things". It confuses and enrages them. Australia wants one thing and one thing only from its government: to hear about why the other guys are terrible. It's up to Labor to have the courage to give us that.

What Labor needs to do to win the election | The panel | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

Katharine Murphy guardian.co.uk,

Friday 28 June 2013 18.19 AEST

The new deputy Labor leader is a subtle power broker, but a crucial one

Kevin Rudd, left, and new deputy Anthony Albanese after winning the leadership spill Photograph: Gary Ramage/Newspix/Rex Featur

King-making in politics is an interesting trade.

Some court the mythology associated with that position - they style themselves deliberately in those terms, they cultivate the image.

Some do not. They mute their footfalls.

This remarkable week in federal politics, and in Labor history, has presented us with a story of contrasts. The build-up to Labor’s leadership change has seen weeks of speculation about the role that would be played by Bill Shorten of the Victorian right.

Would Shorten hold true for Julia Gillard, or would he switch camps? There was constant newspaper speculation. Interviews by Shorten himself. And then his press conference on the night of the leadership ballot to inform the public (or more pertinently, his caucus colleagues) that he was now a Rudd man. It was a public affirmation of influence.

Shorten was of course important, in the psychology of the thing, and in the practice. His declaration on the night shifted votes Kevin Rudd’s way.

But the person who had most to do with the events of this week - who was most instrumental in securing Rudd’s successful return to the prime ministership - kept himself very quiet indeed.

This fellow, on Tuesday, to Fran Kelly, on the ABC’s Radio National breakfast program, on the subject of the Labor leadership, said this: “I think I’ll leave it, Fran, for media people to interview other people from the media about what’s going on. I tell you what I do Fran, I do my job, each and every day. I leave my internal comments to internal processes. Call me old fashioned. I don’t engage in speculation. I don’t intend to in the future.”

It was Anthony Albanese, the left-winger from New South Wales, now Rudd’s deputy. If you are looking for the key kingmaker in this transaction, it was Albanese in concert with the Labor Party’s organisation in New South Wales.

NSW party secretary Sam Dastyari’s role was absolutely critical this week - and, unlike Victoria where the factions were fractured, there was an alignment in NSW between the people who mattered about what needed to be done. Dastyari directed votes go Rudd’s way, and they did. Environment minister Tony Burke was the only significant hold-out.

The role of NSW institutionally in Labor politics is to be pragmatic and ruthless when circumstances require, and NSW shifted decisively for Rudd in this week’s leadership ballot. Unlike the botch-up in March this year, where the Rudd forces blew up the leadership issue before they even had a challenger - there were no mistakes, no tactical misjudgments.

This was a precision strike.

For readers who may not know the history, Albanese is a long standing supporter of Kevin Rudd. He thought it was wrong of the Labor Party to change leaders in 2010, whatever the government’s internal troubles at that time. Bad politics, bad principle. His view on that didn’t change.

Albanese sat on the margins of the March debacle, when Rudd refused to challenge.

He did not sit on the margins this time. That activism, combined with Dastyari’s institutional support, made all the difference for Kevin Rudd.

Albanese was active, and Dastyari brought the transaction home.

It’s a fact that should not be lost in the emotional fog of a brutal, unforgettable week.

Anthony Albanese: the true king-maker behind Rudd's redemption | World news | guardian.co.uk

Lenore Taylor, political editor guardian.co.uk

Friday 28 June 2013 16.34 AEST

Resurrected Kevin says he is determined to get major policy settings right before going to the polls

Kevin Rudd has picked a fight with the Coalition on asylum policy at his first full press conference as prime minister. Photograph: Mike Bowers/Global Mail

At his first full press conference after once again becoming prime minister, Kevin Rudd managed to pick a fight on asylum policy with the Coalition and on carbon pricing with the Greens. Those who put him back in the job could not have been more pleased. This was Kevin Rudd 2.0.

Rudd was prodding the same policy weak spot Julia Gillard has been prosecuting for weeks – the obvious contradiction between Tony Abbott's policy to turn back asylum seeker boats and Indonesia's very public and repeated insistence that it will not co-operate with the policy nor accept the boats back.

He warned it could trigger a "conflict" with Indonesia, later clarifying that he was "talking about a diplomatic conflict … but you have to be wary about where diplomatic conflict goes … you end up with a pretty robust diplomatic conflict and you become a little bit concerned about where that heads."

Pushed about whether he had meant an armed conflict he clarified, "I certainly hope it doesn't, I don't believe it would."

A deeply aggrieved shadow foreign affairs spokesperson Julie Bishop appeared almost immediately to renounce his statement as "deeply irresponsible, ridiculous and absurd" because the Coalition intended to turn boats around in international waters rather than in Indonesia's territorial zone. But then she had to try to explain the discrepancy all over again – achieving what was undoubtedly Rudd's aim of turning the focus back onto the opposition.

And he did not rule out bringing forward the starting date for a floating carbon price – in technical terms an end to the politically damaging carbon tax.

Rudd said he would be speaking with his cabinet about it. Any change would need to be legislated, and would impact on other aspects of the carbon pricing scheme, making it practically difficult to start a floating price before July 2014 – just one year before it would be due to happen anyway.

But the very suggestion of a change also brought an angry reaction from Senator Christine Milne, who helped negotiate the carbon pricing regime. Again Labor strategists were delighted.

"Do you think it hurts us to be having a blue about carbon pricing with the Greens?," one asked, rhetorically.

Besides changing the conversation on both of Labor's political weak spots, Rudd gave little away about any of his own policies – a commitment to proceed with the schools funding reforms and a two-week extension of the deadline for negotiations with the states, signals that he would also be taking a fairly tough line on asylum policy, the predictable promise of economic responsibility, an open door to some changes on carbon pricing and – the possibility – somewhere down the track of a plebiscite or referendum to legalise gay marriage.

But there was also a rationale for the vague answers – this was a kinder, gentler Kevin. He was determined to get "major policy settings right" before he went to the polls.

Former communications minister Senator Stephen Conroy once accused him of having "contempt for the Cabinet. Contempt for Cabinet members. Julia Gillard said he had "very difficult and very chaotic work patterns"

Resurrected Kevin said he was taking briefings on almost everything, and that "If I have learnt one thing from my previous period as prime minister, and I have learnt quite a lot, is the absolute need for proper orderly decision-making process...proper orderly processes of Cabinet decision making." He had promised colleagues "anything major" would go through Cabinet. The only caveat was a crisis, or as the prime minister put it, "when stuff happens."

Since he won't announce until the weekend who will replace the six ministers who stood down from the frontbench as soon as he returned to the prime ministership, and they won't be sworn in until next Monday, that also provided an immediate out for any specific questions about policy.

But there were some clues. The increasing number of asylum boats was risking "a fragmenting of support for the system of orderly migration" and it would be delusional not to recognise that some of those arriving on boats were "economic migrants" rather than refugees. If he decides to go to next weeks' scheduled meeting with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono the issue would be discussed.

He did not rule out bringing forward the starting date for a floating carbon price - in technical terms an end to the politically damaging carbon tax. He said he would be speaking with his Cabinet about it. But any change would need to be legislated, and would impact on other aspects of the carbon pricing scheme, making it practically difficult to start a floating price before July 214 - just one year before it would be due to happen anyway.

He again declared that the China-driven mining boom was "at an end", with big consequences for Australia, and that it was not an economic situation in which any government could bring the budget immediately back to surplus.

And he challenged Abbott again to a debate at the National Press Club, this time on the Coalition's claim about the national debt and the deficit. He has said he is happy to debate Abbott every week.

With some inside the new cabinet arguing the government should stick with the 14 September election date so that the already legislated local government referendum could proceed, and Rudd keen to attend the G20 meeting in September in St Petersburg, the timing of the federal election is again up in the air, and Rudd did not absolutely rule out the 43rd parliament sitting again.

And as ministers who have served for decades left parliament for the final time, and Julia Gillard packed to leave the Lodge, the man whose supporters triggered three ballots for the Labor leadership during a single term of government went out of his way to pay tribute to his predecessor and demand she be treated with "appropriate respect and dignity".

He did, however, point out that the same treatment had not been meted out to him when he was deposed in 2010.

He said he had told colleagues "I will not tolerate anyone going out there and trashing Julia's reputation. I've had some experience of that and it's not pleasant."

For those in the room the press conference was like travelling back in time, the same folksy language, the same slight convoluted rhetorical style.

But in the electorate, for now at least according to early polling, and in the minds of Labor tacticians, the Rudd restoration seems to have achieved its aim of putting Labor back into the electoral game.

Rudd 2.0 comes out swinging against Coalition and the Greens | World news | guardian.co.uk

Waleed Aly June 28, 2013

Kevin Rudd: "Held the party to ransom". Photo: Andrew Meares

Do you have that hollow feeling, too? That feeling that after months, no, years of build-up, after the arrival of the final climax, there is something oddly underwhelming about the fact that Kevin Rudd has finally reclaimed the throne? It's not that this isn't a momentous development. It is. But after the incessant focus on whether or not this would happen, we're left with the question so many Labor MPs couldn't answer while they were vainly denying anything was going on: what exactly was that about?

It certainly wasn't about integrity. Julia Gillard's magnificent concession speech revealed the person the public so rarely saw, but that her loyal colleagues clearly knew. This is very much unlike Rudd's axing in 2010, which we now know was mainly about Rudd's impossibly dysfunctional style of governance, which led much of the caucus to detest him. Gillard's colleagues like and respect her, but in the final act simply couldn't abide her diabolically bad polling. No doubt the data reflected her constant political missteps, but they also reflected Rudd's constant undermining of her. Now the man who contributed so much to making her prime ministership impossible, who has done so much to put Labor in this catastrophic position, has been rewarded with the leadership. He held the party to ransom, and ultimately got paid.

This was sheer, bloody pragmatism. There's no central policy dispute or matter of principle at stake. Listen carefully to Bill Shorten's statement half an hour before the ballot: ''I have now come to the view that Labor stands the best chance to defend the legacies of this term of government, and to continue improving the lives of millions of Australians if Kevin Rudd is our leader,'' he explained. The emphasis is mine, but if you think about them, the italicised words are astonishing. The legacy he's protecting is Gillard's. His support for Rudd was, paradoxically, all about his admiration for the woman he helped eject from politics, a prime minister who has "accomplished remarkable things'' - ''once-in-a-generation reforms'' no less, and ''in very difficult circumstances in a minority government''.

Julia Gillard: showed the person the public rarely saw. Photo: Andrew Meares

That's one of the great ironies here. For now, the electorate clearly prefers Rudd to Gillard, and that's the only reason we now have him. But in policy terms, Gillard has the more impressive record. Rudd's time in office was frantic, but barren. Beyond his great symbolic moments (the apology and Kyoto), his biggest initiatives, such as the emissions trading scheme and his mining tax, fell over. His education revolution amounted to little - far less than Gillard's Gonski-inspired initiative. Gillard has her name on the national disability insurance scheme, the carbon tax and a newly negotiated, if deeply flawed, mining tax. She achieved a health funding deal with the states where Rudd couldn't. She has established a landmark wide-ranging royal commission on child sex abuse. Some of these (health, mining tax) were renewed, compromised versions of Rudd's failures. Others, (carbon tax, royal commission) were not her idea and were forced upon her. Still, her legacy is far more concrete than Rudd's.

Rudd's one virtue is that he gives Labor the spectre of a chance in this year's election. Not necessarily even the chance to win so much as the chance not to be utterly destroyed. That's why his caucus supporters rarely have glowing things to say about him. Foreign Minister Bob Carr was more spirited on Lateline, celebrating Rudd as ''the leader who saved us from the GFC''. No doubt, that was Rudd's great practical achievement in office. But that was a response to circumstances, not an agenda.

What is his agenda now? We know Rudd has long wanted the leadership, but to what end? The most emphatic reason he gave was to ''do what I can to prevent Mr Abbott from becoming prime minister''. Then came Shorten: "I believe that Tony Abbott and his conservative Coalition represent a once-in-a-generation risk to the advancement of this nation and its peoples''. Then came Carr: "Too much is at risk … [it's] overwhelmingly in Australia's interest that Tony Abbott not be our national leade''. It's no longer about what Labor will do. It's a little bit about what Labor has done - almost entirely under Gillard. But it's mostly about their stopping their opponents. Umpteen Labor voices have declared the importance of offering the Australian people a choice this year. But it's not yet clear exactly what that choice will be other than a choice between a man named Tony Abbott, and someone who isn't.

Illustration: Simon Letch

The upshot is this: we're now witnessing a contest between two opposition leaders. More than that, it's a contest between the two best opposition leaders we have seen in decades. Rudd's 2007 dismantling of Howard was so clinical and thorough that he looked destined forever to be a Labor hero. Abbott hasn't so much dismantled Rudd and Gillard as destroyed them. But the fact both men are skilled in opposition is scarcely encouraging. It means both excel in the symbolism and sharply crafted critique that opposition rewards. But as Rudd so spectacularly demonstrated after 2007, opposition and government are entirely different enterprises.

What we don't have is a leader. We don't have a government that can run energetically on its record, because while his colleagues might celebrate the NDIS and Gonski, Rudd simply doesn't own them, and will surely look ridiculous spruiking them. This is, in some ways, a re-run of 2010, when Gillard had no way of owning Rudd's economic management, so we didn't talk about it. The result that time was perhaps the most substance-free election campaign we've ever seen; one characterised by small ideas and mutual scare tactics. We might just be headed there again.

Columnist Waleed Aly hosts RN Drive on Radio National.

Fresh fire but using Gillard's ammo

Peter Martin Economics correspondent

June 28, 2013

Asked about the economy in his first question time as Treasurer on Thursday, Chris Bowen did something extraordinary.

He spoke succinctly and sat down.

Nothing could have distinguished him more from his predecessor. Wayne Swan would have spoken for the full four minutes and then used a follow-up Dorothy Dixer to keep going.

It wasn't because Mr Bowen was unprepared. He had the facts at his fingertips (as well-briefed treasurers always do) and he deployed them as well as anyone who has gone before him.

''I like his style,'' said Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Anderson, who Mr Bowen made a point of phoning during a day packed with Treasury briefings, question time, an interview on ABC TV's 7.30 and being sworn in.

''He told me he was sincere about wanting to repair relations with the private sector.''

Asked the one word that best describes the new Treasurer Mr Anderson picked ''serious''.

''I have dealt with him as small business minister, as assistant treasurer and as minister for immigration. He gets down to work.

''And he worries. As immigration minister I could feel the burdens on his shoulders whenever I walked into his office.''

Business Council president Tony Shepherd said Mr Bowen was ''decent''.

''He is straightforward, pro-business by inclination, and one of those people you can talk with rather than get caught up in the politics of division.''

At the small end of town, Peter Strong of the Council of Small Business said Mr Bowen was the most impressive minister he had met.

''He gets business and he gets the fact that we vote.''

Reportedly promised the job by Kevin Rudd during his unsuccessful attempt to regain the Labor leadership last year, Mr Bowen appeared to have been preparing to be Treasurer for years. He studied economics at Sydney University. His predecessors as treasurer had arts or law degrees. And he has applied economic solutions to broader problems. FuelWatch, promoted enthusiastically by a 34-year old Mr Bowen shortly after his appointment as assistant treasurer in 2007, was a textbook response to concerns about imperfect competition. If consumers felt they were being overcharged for petrol, why not let them know exactly what each supplier was charging?

The so-called Malaysia solution for asylum seekers was another essentially economic solution. It made use of incentives. Asylum seekers who arrived by boat would be sent to the back of the queue.

Labor abandoned FuelWatch and the High Court struck down the Malaysia solution, but both were innovative attempts to deal with intractable problems.

Some who have dealt with him as immigration minister describe him as ill at ease.

He will be watched as Treasurer even more closely, and he is trying to get off to a good start.

Economic warrior rides in

 Michael Gordon and Mark Kenny June 28, 2013

Kevin Rudd has dumped Julia Gillard's proposed September 14 election date and is weighing up whether to go earlier or delay the poll to maximise his chances of rebuilding public confidence in the Labor government.

As he prepares for a cabinet reshuffle to cover seven departures after he defeated Ms Gillard in a caucus ballot on Wednesday, the Prime Minister announced he would follow the practice of prime ministers from Menzies to Howard and call the date at a time of his choosing.

Australia's 28th (and 26th) prime minister, Kevin Rudd, with Deputy Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Photo: Andrew Meares

He also challenged Tony Abbott to debate the economy at the National Press Club and used the final day of Parliament to push the case for ''the politics of hope'' above ''the old politics of negativity''.

Although some are urging Mr Rudd to go earlier to capitalise on a bounce in the polls - including a Morgan poll showing Labor trailing by just 49.5 to 50.5 in two-party terms - Mr Rudd is weighing up a slightly later date.

As Mr Rudd and Mr Abbott had their first parliamentary faceoff, Defence Minister Stephen Smith announced he would quit politics at the election after two decades in the Parliament. Former cabinet ministers Craig Emerson and Peter Garrett had already announced their retirements.

In a gesture of healing, Mr Rudd attended Mr Garrett's heartfelt valedictory speech, along with Ms Gillard, and paid tribute to the former minister. Mr Rudd highlighted the clash of the September 14 date nominated by Ms Gillard with a G20 leaders' summit the previous week and the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur.

He also signalled that going earlier would mean dumping the planned referendum to recognise local government.

Despite the temptation to capitalise on any honeymoon period and go early, recent history - including Ms Gillard's experience in 2010 - suggests this can be risky.

Former ministers Simon Crean and Kim Carr appear poised for a cabinet recall and Ed Husic is set for promotion, though Mr Rudd is likely to keep changes to a minimum and opt for what, in effect, would be a caretaker cabinet.

Senator Carr is tipped to replace Climate Change Minister Greg Combet. If appointed, he would be the fourth big winner from Mr Rudd's victory after Mr Rudd himself, new Deputy Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Chris Bowen. New deputy Senate leader Jacinta Collins is tipped to replace Mr Garrett as school education minister.

With Mr Bowen, Mr Rudd will receive briefings from bureaucrats on the weekend that could incline him to going later and bringing back Parliament, especially if he decides to legislate to move more quickly for a floating price on carbon, which would require the return of Parliament before the poll.

Mr Abbott chose not to move a no-confidence motion in the government and instead urged Mr Rudd to end uncertainty and call the election - accusing him of, ''like Pontius Pilate'', washing the blood off his hands.

''The Australian people should control the prime ministership and the government of this country,'' Mr Abbott said. ''That is why, Prime Minister, you should not run away, you should name the date.''

While Mr Rudd delivered a question time performance that raised hopes on his backbench, others who had switched sides to support him were weighing the personal cost. Workplace Minister Bill Shorten, whose late defection helped deliver a comfortable victory, said: ''I believe there will be friends in the [labour] movement who will never talk to me again.''

He pleaded for people not to be ''mean to my kids'' because of the decision. Finance Minister Penny Wong, who switched and became Labor Senate leader, described her decision as the most difficult of her political life.

PM weighs up new poll date

Paul Sheehan Sydney Morning Herald columnist

June 27, 2013 - 2:11PM

Julia Gillard: her time was up. Photo: Andrew Meares

It was so very typical of Julia Gillard to choose the most conspicuous place in Parliament, short of the dispatch box during question time -the Aussies cafe - to sit and sup in full view, the morning after she died by the sword, having lived by the sword.

She seemed chipper, just as she was characteristically sturdy the night before in her concession speech. With time to reflect, she will see her political demise as a mercy killing. Her condition had been diabolical. She had become the issue. She had become the liability. She was leading her party to an annihilating defeat.

In his short political career, he had knifed both his leaders. He has blood on both hands and both arms.

And she was seen, rightly, as the worst kind of hypocrite. In knifing her leader three years ago, she had cited his poor opinion poll numbers, saying the public had lost confidence in him. Her poll numbers were far worse, with far greater consequence, and had been far worse for much longer. Yet she felt entitled to remain as leader. It was a double standard.

Bill Shorten: backed Kevin Rudd. Photo: Harrison Saragossi

She will see that now. She will know that being betrayed by Bill Shorten was far preferable to being pulverised by the public, creating the worst kind of precedent for the first female prime minister.

As for Bill Shorten, why would you hold a press conference half an hour before a leadership ballot, to announce that you were deserting your second prime minister? In his short political career, he had knifed both his leaders. He has blood on both hands and both arms. After weeks of stating that he was supporting Gillard, no one will trust him now. His former comrades at the Australian Workers Union regard him as a rat.

The only logical reason to hold a press conference was to seek to ensure he had made the winning switch, creating an impression of fracturing support for Gillard, and signalling the unions were no longer solid behind Gillard.

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Another big day in federal politics

Prime Minister designate Kevin Rudd leaves his Canberra hotel in the front seat on Thursday 27 June 2013. Photo: Andrew Meares

What he achieved was a massive dent to his role as Future Leader, which had looked very strong until 6.31pm yesterday.

Then there is Rudd, who can now take his time and announce an election date of his choosing. It won't be September 14, on principle. The Greens have given him until the end of September, but he can wait longer if he wants the public to get comfortable with his return.

I have been struck by the pervasive cynicism about Rudd in the Canberra press gallery. When his office put out a press notice from the "Prime Minister", even though he was still a backbencher, nobody believed it would take place on time, at 10.15pm. By the time he finally arrived at 10.42pm, there had been much droll comment in the room about "the new Rudd".

He did not even pretend to be new. There was no reference to any reasons why a cascade of ministers were pulling the pin as he spoke.

Rudd said there would be a "renewal" of the ministry. A fine word for carnage. By then, the Liberal Party had put out a video on YouTube made up of insulting comments about Rudd by Gillard, Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett, Stephen Smith, Stephen Conroy, Kate Ellis, former senator Graham Richardson and former leader Mark Latham, saying Rudd had been "universally despised by his cabinet colleagues".

Within an hour of Rudd's victory, Gillard, Swan, Garrett, Emerson, Greg Combet and Joe Ludwig had resigned from the ministry.

After the obligatory nod towards "humility", Rudd was fulsome in his praise for the woman on whom he had just exacted revenge: "She is a woman of extraordinary intelligence, great strength and energy."

That is not what he had been telling journalists during numerous background briefings over the past three years.

He spoke at length and said little. This was not the new Rudd. This was Rudd.

Blood on Julia Gillard's guillotine | Kevin Rudd Australia PM

27 Jun 2013, 1:50 pm   -   Source: AAP

Kevin Rudd is facing his first Question Time since regaining the prime ministership, after being sworn in by the governor-general this morning.

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Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has begun his first day back in the job calling for a kinder and gentler approach to politics.

Governor-General Quentin Bryce swore in Mr Rudd and his deputy Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Chris Bowen in a brief ceremony at Government House in Canberra on Thursday morning.

It came after Mr Rudd's 57-45 caucus vote victory over Julia Gillard, who ousted him in June 2010 and narrowly held onto power with the backing of the Greens and independents after the 2010 election.

Mr Rudd went straight from the ceremony to Parliament House, where his commission was accepted without a "no-confidence" motion by the federal opposition.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said he was not going to play "parliamentary games" by moving against Mr Rudd's government but urged the incoming leader to call an election as soon as possible.

Mr Rudd could announce an August 24 election, replacing the September 14 date set by Ms Gillard, but strategy discussions were continuing.

He still has to fill five vacancies in his cabinet with an announcement due on Friday.

Mr Rudd used his first speech to parliament since re-taking the Labor leadership to acknowledge political life is "a very hard life indeed".

"Occasionally it can be kind, more often it is not," Mr Rudd told the lower house.

"So let us try, just try, to be a little kinder and gentler with each other in the deliberations of this parliament," he said.

Mr Rudd praised Ms Gillard for her achievements on workplace reform and education funding and for being a "standard bearer for women" as the nation's first female prime minister.

Mr Abbott agreed politics was "sometimes far more brutal than it should be" before asking Mr Rudd why Ms Gillard had been "dragged down".

Labor's new Senate leader Penny Wong revealed she voted for Mr Rudd after previously backing Ms Gillard.

"I had to decide who I thought would offer the best contest at the next election against Tony Abbott," she said. Former Gillard backer Bill Shorten revealed he had been thinking of switching his vote to Mr Rudd for weeks and his final decision had been "incredibly difficult".

"But I also know the cause which I serve ... is more than just about individuals," he added. Former Labor leader Mark Latham likened Mr Rudd to a "snake in the pit".

"The saboteur of 2010 (federal election) is now the leader of the 2013 election campaign," he said.

Mr Rudd is still to announce any policy changes but Foreign Minister Bob Carr has already said Labor needs to take a more "hard-edged" approach to people-smuggling.

Mr Rudd's still to confirm whether he will travel to Indonesia next week for scheduled Australian government talks with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on July 5.

Rudd eases back into PM role | Rudd parliament | SBS World News

Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent

June 27, 2013

Rudd: 'I cannot stand idly by'

Prime minister elect Kevin Rudd and his deputy Anthony Albanese address the media for the first time after the Labor leadership spill. Play Video

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Kevin Rudd will again be sworn in as Prime Minister by the Governor-General at 9.30am on Thursday after winning the Labor leadership in a ballot against former prime minister Julia Gillard.

In a day of high drama Mr Rudd defeated Ms Gillard 57-45 in a party-room vote, but the switch came with significant political fallout as six ministers resigned, including Treasurer and deputy leader Wayne Swan, who is replaced by the Left's Anthony Albanese as deputy Labor leader and leader of the House of Representatives. The job of Treasurer is likely to go to former immigration minister-turned key Rudd numbers man Chris Bowen.

Off to be sworn in: Prime Minister designate Kevin Rudd leaves his Canberra hotel on Thursday morning. Photo: Andrew Meares

Ms Bryce on Wednesday sought the advice of her solicitor-general as how to proceed with appointing Mr Rudd, after Ms Gillard recommended the governor-general appoint him prime minister.

The Acting Solicitor-General Robert Orr, QC, said Ms Bryce would seek an assurance from Mr Rudd that he would announce his appointment to the House of Representatives ''at the first possible opportunity''.

This would give the lower house the opportunity for ''whatever, if any, action it chooses to take''.

Kevin Rudd: will be sworn in at 930am. Photo: Andrew Meares

Mr Rudd could face his first parliamentary test on Thursday, if the opposition moves a motion of no confidence in the minority government. Should that happen he is likely to get support from crossbenchers Andrew Wilkie, Peter Slipper, Craig Thomson, Bob Katter and Adam Bandt.

Mr Rudd's promotion marks a stunning turnaround for the former prime minister and polling suggests the federal election scheduled for September will be more closely fought.

Addressing reporters in Canberra on Wednesday night, Mr Rudd said he resumed his old job with ''humility, with honour, and with an important sense of energy and purpose''.

Quitting politics: Julia Gillard. Photo: Andrew Meares

The new Labor leader praised Ms Gillard as a ''remarkable reformer'', describing her as a  woman of great intelligence, strength and energy.

But Mr Rudd said that in recent years politics had failed the Australian people.

''There has just been too much negativity all round,'' he said.

Facing a new challenge: Tony Abbott. Photo: Andrew Meares

Mr Rudd said he was taking on the challenge of the Labor leadership for a simple reason.

''I simply do not have it in my nature to stand idly by and to allow an Abbott government to come to power in this country by default,'' he said.

Mr Rudd said that his government would work "very closely" with business.

New team: Kevin Rudd and Anthony Albanese. Photo: Andrew Meares

"We have been natural partners in the past, we can be again in the future."

He also had a special word for young people, urging them to re-engage with politics.

"I understand why you have switched off. It is hardly a surprise,” he said. “But I want to ask you to please come back and listen afresh."

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Explosive day in Parliament

An emotional Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott announced they will not recontest the next election at Parliament House. Photo: Andrew Meares

Ms Gillard will return to the backbench and will leave politics altogether at the election. Her demise brings to an end a tumultuous three years in which she broke through the ultimate glass ceiling, but saw Labor's vote slump to a position where it faced almost certain defeat.

But it has also plunged Labor into more turmoil, with several senior figures resigning in protest and the party showing few signs of being able to present a united front.

Ms Gillard reflected on her role as Australia's first female prime minister, and attributed in part, her political troubles to her gender.

''It doesn't explain everything, it doesn't explain nothing, it explains some things,'' she said.

Ms Gillard congratulated Mr Rudd and visited Governor-General Quentin Bryce late on Wednesday night.

"Three years ago I had the very great honour of being elected as Labor leader ... This privilege was truly humbling," she said.

Ms Gillard said she had faced a minority Parliament and internal division within Labor during her time as Prime Minister.

"It has not been an easy environment to work in," she said.

Ms Gillard also commented about the fact that she has been Australia's first female prime minister.

She said that the reaction to her being the first woman to serve in the position did not explain everything about her prime ministership. But, she said, "it explains some things".

Ms Gillard said she was proud of her government's achievements, nominating the school funding reforms - which passed the Senate on Wednesday, establishing the Royal Commission on Child Abuse, a price on carbon and the introduction of DisabilityCare as highlights.

Finance Minister Penny Wong has become the government's No.3 minister, replacing Communications Minister Stephen Conroy as government leader in the Senate.

Other high profile ministers to go include Climate Change Minister Greg Combet; Trade Minister and Gillard confidant Craig Emerson; Agriculture Minister Joe Ludwig; and School Education Minister Peter Garrett.

In his pitch to colleagues made publicly as he announced his intention to stand, Mr Rudd promised there would be no retribution against Gillard-aligned MPs.

Mr Rudd's return has dramatically redrawn the political landscape, forcing Tony Abbott's Coalition to reset its campaign approach for another, more popular opponent.

Mr Abbott has condemned Labor's leadership change, saying the Australian people deserve better.

He says Kevin Rudd needs to quickly confirm a polling day, preferably before September 14. Mr Abbott says the Australian people should vote for the Coalition if they want strong and stable government.

Ms Gillard's spectacular removal followed a sustained campaign of destabilisation by backers of Mr Rudd which culminated in the circulation of a caucus petition seeking a leadership spill followed by Ms Gillard's decision to call it for 7pm.

Citing the ongoing damage inflicted on her government by three years of disunity since she took over as leader, she eventually yielded to the pressure on the strict condition that whoever lost the contest would agree to leave the parliament at the election.

''We cannot have the government or the Labor Party go to the next election with a person leading the Labor Party and a person floating around as the potential alternate leader,'' she told Sky News just after 4pm.

''In those circumstances I believe anybody who enters the ballot tonight should do it on the following conditions: that if you win, you're Labor leader; that if you lose, you retire from politics.''

She said she had faced a near impossible task effectively taking on two opposition leaders.

''We cannot be in a circumstance … for much of my prime ministership if the truth be told, where I have been in a political contest with the Leader of the Opposition, but I've also been in a political contest with people from my own political party,'' she said. ''No leader should be in that position; certainly no leader should be in that position in the run-up to an election.''

In a hastily convened 5pm press conference in which he took no questions, Mr Rudd advised that he would break his word, take Ms Gillard's deal, and confirm he was a candidate for the leadership.

''The truth is many, many MPs have requested me for a long, long time to contest the leadership of the party, because of the parlous circumstances we now face,'' he said. ''And less politely perhaps, various ministers have been free and frank in their public advice to me as to the desirability of contesting the leadership in recent days. For the nation's sake I believe it's time for this matter to be resolved.''

Mr Rudd's declaration set off furious counting, and prompted the defection of the high-profile Bill Shorten to the Rudd camp. That was seen as an important signal to other MPs and a tacit admission by Mr Shorten that he had erred in moving against Mr Rudd in 2010.

Earlier, Parliament's two most prominent independents, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, announced their retirements, with neither man recontesting their NSW seats. The pair, who had maintained their support for Ms Gillard, signalled the end of an era of legislative horse-trading which had sat uncomfortably with many voters, despite its virtues.

While Mr Rudd will not enjoy a parliamentary majority either, he has already received expressions of support from four of the seven independents and needs just one more to remove the danger of losing a no-confidence vote in the House of Representatives.

with Judith Ireland and AAP

Updated: 05:44, Thursday June 27, 2013

 

Kevin Rudd will lead Labor to the federal election after prime minister Julia Gillard lost a leadership ballot, one of her key backers switched camps and six ministers resigned.

A 57-45 caucus vote in favour of the former prime minister was the third time the Labor leadership had been tested since Ms Gillard ousted Mr Rudd to become Australia's first female leader in June 2010.

The decision by Labor powerbroker Bill Shorten, one of the so-called 'faceless men' of the 2010 coup against Mr Rudd, to switch allegiance to him was a crucial step in her ousting on Wednesday.

Mr Rudd could face his first parliamentary test on Thursday, if the opposition moves a motion of no confidence in the minority government on the final sitting days of the 43rd parliament.

However, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott talked down its prospects, saying Mr Rudd should instead name an election date as quickly as possible.

'It is up to the prime minister to demonstrate that he has sufficient support to confirm and maintain a government ... and tell us when the election will be,' Mr Abbott said.

Mr Rudd could call an August 24 election, instead of the September 14 poll decided by Ms Gillard.

The new leader is likely to receive the support of crossbenchers Andrew Wilkie, Peter Slipper, Craig Thomson, Bob Katter and Adam Bandt if it came to a confidence vote in the house.

Mr Rudd said he was resuming the prime ministership, which he first secured at the 2007 election, with a sense of 'energy and purpose'.

'I simply do not have it in my nature to stand idly by and allow an Abbott government to come to power in this country by default,' he said, adding the opposition leader was 'steeped in the power of negative politics'.

If confirmed as prime minister by Governor-General Quentin Bryce, Mr Rudd will have wide scope to put together his government's cabinet, after deputy prime minister Wayne Swan quit the position and was replaced by Anthony Albanese.

Ministers Swan, Stephen Conroy, Joe Ludwig, Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett and Greg Combet also resigned their ministerial roles. Dr Emerson and Mr Garrett also decided not to contest the upcoming election.

Ms Gillard, who brought on the leadership spill after a petition started to circulate seeking a special caucus meeting, said in her resignation statement Labor needed to put the divisions of the past behind it and unite.

She had faced the twin problems of a minority parliament and 'internal division' within Labor.

'It has not been an easy environment to work in,' Ms Gillard said.

Ms Gillard won't recontest her Melbourne seat of Lalor at the upcoming election.

Mr Swan, who will recontest his Brisbane seat of Lilley, described Ms Gillard as one of Labor's 'toughest warriors' who had achieved much in the past three years.

Mr Rudd had previously stated that under no circumstances would he return to the leadership.

But he said he had gone back on his pledge for three reasons.

'The request that I have received from my colleagues, my belief that the Australian people deserve a competitive choice at the next election and my fear that if we don't offer it Mr Abbott will win by the biggest landslide since Federation,' he said.

Finance Minister Penny Wong unanimously becomes Labor's Leader in the Senate, taking over from Senator Conroy. Jacinta Collins becomes the senate deputy leader.

The Liberal party immediately launched a new advertisement campaign quoting Mr Rudd's 'broken' promise not to contest the leadership.

'I will leave it to you, the Australian people, to judge if I have made the right call,' Mr Rudd said earlier.

Mr Abbott said voters should choose the prime minister, not the 'faceless men' of Labor.

Asked when he would be sworn in as prime minister, Mr Rudd said he would await advice.

'We will await the Governor-General on that matter,' he said.

Sky News: Rudd returns to tackle election

Some in the Labor Party see former prime minister Kevin Rudd as the reason for the Government's parlous position in the polls. Some see him as the only person with any chance of avoiding an electoral wipeout. And some see him as both.

With the three-year anniversary of Mr Rudd's ousting from the top job only just passed, his forces are at work to restore him as prime minister and leader of a party riven by three years of internecine conflict.

Those tensions had most recently come to a head in March, when another former leader, Simon Crean, urged Julia Gillard to call a leadership spill after months of flatlining polls pointed to a clear win for Tony Abbott’s Coalition at the September election.

Ms Gillard brought on the spill within hours, forcing Mr Rudd to not contest a ballot he would have lost. He said then that there were "no circumstances" under which he would return to the Labor leadership. By last week, that position had been amended to that he "did not believe" there were circumstances that would facilitate a return.

That was seized upon as a signal that the manoeuvrings and deals were back on, despite Mr Rudd's vow that he would not launch a challenge.

Instead, he would only accept the position again if drafted by an "overwhelming majority" of Labor MPs. The petition being circulated among the caucus could be used to satisfy that part of Mr Rudd's pledge.

Kevin Rudd

• Born September 21, 1957
• Elected as MP for Griffith in 1998
• Elected Opposition Leader in December, 2006
• Elected Prime Minister in December, 2007
• Ousted by Julia Gillard in June 2010
• Foreign Minister from September 2010 to February 2012

For his part, Mr Rudd, the former diplomat, has said he is a changed man, having taken on board the criticisms levelled at him from disgruntled colleagues in the wake of his 2010 removal. His office was accused of micromanaging ministers - or excluding them from decision-making altogether – and Mr Rudd himself had a reputation for bursts of anger and brusqueness.

It is a reputation that stayed with Mr Rudd from his time as chief of staff to then Queensland premier Wayne Goss and later as his state's top bureaucrat.

To assuage MPs' concerns, he has now promised a decentralised management style and a more conciliatory personal tone.

How conciliatory Mr Rudd could be with a deposed Ms Gillard in this year’s campaign – and what role she would accept within it – remain to be seen.

In the 2010 campaign, Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard posed for a photo opportunity in Brisbane intended to show the pair working together. They then formed a fractious relationship from September 2010 until February 2012 with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister Gillard’s foreign minister.

Their relationship finally broke down after the leaking of a video showing Mr Rudd swearing in frustration while attempting to record a video message in Mandarin. Mr Rudd resigned from Cabinet and launched a challenge that was resoundingly swept aside by the Gillard camp, 71 votes to 31.

That vote came after an extraordinary barrage against Mr Rudd from ministers and MPs who served under him. Wayne Swan called Mr Rudd’s tenure "dysfunctional", Tony Burke described an office paralysed by chaos, while Stephen Conroy said Mr Rudd had "contempt" for his colleagues.

Video: Andrew Green profiles Kevin Rudd (ABC News)

Mr Rudd's power was always founded on his public popularity, honed through years of media saturation first as shadow minister pressuring Howard ministers on the Iraq war fallout and later via regular appearances on morning television.

After sitting out ballots for the Labor leadership during the tenures of Crean, Kim Beazley and Mark Latham, Mr Rudd assumed the position in December 2006 with Ms Gillard as his deputy.

The pair rode a wave of anti-Howard sentiment evident in the Kevin07 campaign to a convincing win. Early achievements included the apology to the Stolen Generations and ratifying the Kyoto protocol.

But with the failure of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and a sustained attack against Mr Rudd’s proposed mining tax, his personal approval rating began to slide and a one-term Labor government seemed a distinct possibility. Mr Rudd’s factional weakness was exposed and he was ousted.

His return would be predicated upon an expected bounce in the polls – although his honouring of Ms Gillard's commitment to hold the election in September would need to be tested.

So too would be the reaction of Gillard-aligned ministers, especially those most vocal against him a year ago.

While an election earlier than planned could allow Mr Rudd to capitalise on a honeymoon period in a bid to revive the Kevin07 momentum, the 2013 campaign would involve a far greater spotlight on the make-up of his team.

Kevin Rudd: spoiler or saviour? - Labor in Turmoil - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent

June 24, 2013

• Play Video

Kevin Rudd's three-stage siege on the Labor leadership has cost the party direct political support and could destroy it for a generation according to a Gillard camp review of opinion polls before and after his two previous leadership tilts.

The figures ... show Labor's standing with voters has headed south.

Its release represents a new stage in the internecine warfare between the current and former prime ministers as Labor MPs stare electoral annihilation in the face.

The constant shadow cast by Kevin Rudd over the Labor leadership could cost the ALP the election. Photo: Getty Images

As Ms Gillard braces for her toughest week as Prime Minister with a final bruising showdown widely expected, a senior minister has told Fairfax Media that the only certain effect of Mr Rudd's "revenge mission" has been to send the ALP's stocks into the basement, guaranteeing that Tony Abbott will be prime minister after the election.

The figures, based on the results of the monthly Fairfax-Nielsen poll, the fortnightly Newspoll, and others, show Labor's standing with voters has headed south immediately following the last two raids on the top job by Mr Rudd and his backers.

It shows Labor trailed by just four points with 48 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to the Coalition's 52 per cent in Newspoll's March 10 survey.

Smiling all the way to the polls: Tony Abbott is the only winner in the Labor debacle.

However, this gap quadrupled to 16 percentage points in the Newspoll taken just after the March 21 leadership crisis in which Mr Rudd forced a spill, but then failed to stand.

In the corresponding Fairfax-Nielsen poll, Labor's deficit blew out from eight points to 14 points across the two polls taken before and after the March 2013 no-show.

In February last year, Labor's poll deficit also more than doubled from six points before the ballot - which Ms Gillard won easily by almost two to one - to 14 points in the month after the contest, according to the Fairfax-Nielsen poll.

Illustration:Rocco Fazzari

And on Monday, a Newspoll showed Labor's primary vote at 29 per cent with the Coalition on 48 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor's one percentage point gain to 43 per cent still remains far behind the Coalition on 57 per cent.

The poll also shows Opposition Leader Tony Abbott leads Ms Gillard by 12 percentage points as preferred prime minister, 45 to 33 per cent.

The Gillard camp assessment of the impact of the leadership tensions reveals it wants to leave no doubt as to who is to blame for the destabilisation, as the gloves come off before the final sitting week of Parliament.

What the poll assessment does not factor in, though, is the negative impact of a series of political blunders and tactical errors by Labor which have rocked the confidence of MPs in Ms Gillard's political judgment and brought the government into disrepute.

Labor is now all but consumed by its own troubles. The Gillard camp, which at this stage includes the entire ministry, maintains that it is up to Mr Rudd to make a move if he has the numbers.

But the release of the poll assessment is evidence of the wider battle within the ALP parliamentary party for the hearts and minds of MPs terrified of losing their seats, and of their party being consigned to opposition for several parliamentary terms over a personal rivalry they have no way of controlling.

Neither side seems to know if the stand-off will lead to another leadership ballot this week amid concerns over the constitutional complications of Labor not commanding a parliamentary majority in its own right, and the attitudes of crossbench MPs.

But hostilities will need to be put on hold on Tuesday afternoon anyway as the antagonists attend the Hazel Hawke memorial in Sydney.

Rudd to blame for Labor disaster, says Gillard poll review

Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent

June 25, 2013

Gillard appears safe in leadership battle

Prime Minister Julia Gillard looks set to avoid a major hurdle to her leadership on Tuesday.

• Play video
• The Pulse Live: Politics from Parliament with Stephanie Peatling

A third push to reinstall Kevin Rudd as Labor leader was in disarray on Monday evening as it emerged its singular strategy of forcing pro-Gillard ministers to take the initiative and ''tap'' the Prime Minister on the shoulder had come to nothing.

With no plan B, it now looks increasingly likely there will be no change of leader as time for a final showdown runs out.

In disarray: Kevin Rudd's leadership challenge. Photo: Andrew Meares

Instead, pressure is intensifying on the former prime minister to back up his camp's faux campaign with a formal challenge as frustrated MPs on both sides of the stand-off come to the realisation that Julia Gillard will not give in.

Mr Rudd was not present when Labor caucus met on Tuesday morning as he travelled to Sydney to attend the memorial for Hazel Hawke from 1.30pm. Any ballot this week is also thrown into doubt as the former prime minister is travelling to China on Thursday to attend a conference.

Ms Gillard, who will also attend the Hazel Hawke memorial, offered Mr Rudd a lift in her VIP jet, but he declined, with his office explaining he had already made travel arrangements.

Absolutely confident of her causcus majority: Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Photo: Andrew Meares

As the destructive stalemate enters its presumed end-game in the last days of the 43rd Parliament, an uneasy consensus is emerging that it will be up to Mr Rudd to force a spill through demonstrating overwhelming support in the 102-member caucus.

But with the cabinet and her backbench holding firm, Ms Gillard is standing her ground.

The Rudd camp, which continues to say its man must be drafted, is uncertain of its next move, unable even to say if he would nominate in a ballot, or do as he did in March and sit on his hands.

Time for resolution: Climate Change Minister Greg Combet. Photo: Kate Geraghty

Ms Gillard affirmed on Monday that she was ''absolutely'' confident of her caucus majority, insisting the leadership question had been dealt with in March.

But others acting on her behalf taunted Mr Rudd to end the destabilisation by either launching a formal challenge or pulling back.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said the leadership needed to be settled this week. ''We certainly can't have this go on,'' he told Radio National. ''It's just got to be resolved. Kevin Rudd has to decide whether he's a candidate or not and then do something about it. The ball's in Kevin Rudd's court.''

According to a caucus spokesman, leadership was not discussed at the last scheduled caucus meeting before the election.

Instead, Ms Gillard told MPs on Tuesday morning that the September election would feature a choice between ''investment in the future'' and ''cuts to the bone''.

The Prime Minister also said that when Parliament rose at the end of the week, Labor would be running with three issues: education reforms, DisabilityCare and the NBN roll out.

Earlier on Tuesday, Labor senator and Rudd backer Mark Bishop said that Labor should be led by the person who gave it the best chance of winning the election.

But he would not be drawn on whether that should be Ms Gillard or Mr Rudd.

''I'm not going to address those sorts of issues now. We have a leader. We’ve had a set of words for 12 months. And Ms Gillard is our leader,'' he told Fairfax Media's Breaking Politics program.

Senator Bishop also hit out at cabinet ministers, such as Peter Garrett and Senator Stephen Conroy, who have recently restated they would quit their frontbench posts if Mr Rudd returned to the leadership.

''I've been somewhat disappointed by some of public commentary of my more senior colleagues in the last two or three days,'' he said, explaining that MPs should be more disciplined.

''You don't have the option where I come from of saying 'well, I like Jack, I don’t like Jill and I’ll only work under Jack'. So that's been a disappointing sideshow that cabinet ministers have engaged in.''

With the internal contest increasingly being fought on the airwaves, a Rudd supporter, NSW MP Stephen Jones, warned that the party faced a ''thumping'' and should hold a ballot this week.

The sense of desperation was added to by the latest national poll showing Labor's primary vote dipping below 30 per cent, and Ms Gillard's popularity losing more ground to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

Pro-Rudd forces continue to discuss the idea of a senior delegation of ministers calling on Ms Gillard to stand down ''for the good of the party'', but privately strategists admit they are out of ideas.

Rudd push out of puff, Gillard going nowhere

Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent

June 17, 2013

Gillard's poll woes

Another disastrous opinion poll for Labor and Julia Gillard - but not for Kevin Rudd - places more pressure on her leadership.

Returning to Kevin Rudd could forestall an electoral train wreck by adding as much as 11 points to Labor's primary vote, the latest Fairfax Nielsen poll has found.

The poll shows the ALP's first-preference vote languishing at just 29 per cent to the Coalition's 47 per cent, portending a 7 per cent swing against Labor and the loss of nearly half its MPs. Dejected caucus members filing back into the capital will notice that according to the poll, under Mr Rudd's leadership their 29 per cent share could suddenly become 40 and the Coalition's 47 per cent could be pulled back to 42.

That would take the race back to the nil-all draw achieved at the 2010 election after distribution of preferences to be 50-50.

Switching to Kevin Rudd could keep Labor in the election race. Photo: Harrison Saragossi

Some of the recovery would come from Greens voters but most would be from a group disaffected by the present leader: male voters - all age groups.

However, pollster John Stirton reminds readers of hypothetical head-to-head comparisons, such as that between Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd, not to overlook how the change would occur and how resilient the latter's apparent popularity turns out to be.

Mr Rudd is the preferred Labor leader, with 58 per cent to Ms Gillard's 32 per cent - a very significant lead of 26 points.

The question is, how much of that comprises conservative voters who have no intention of voting Labor when the time comes?

The former prime minister's popularity is also likely to be inflated by nostalgia and the simple fact of him not being her.

This is the ''ABG'' answer, where voters opt for ''anyone but Gillard'' without spending time thinking about what happens next. Ms Gillard's loyalists argue that Mr Rudd's support in the electorate is ''a mile wide and an inch deep'', being based more on celebrity than durable political popularity.

Mr Stirton has also described as ''a magical scenario'' the possibility of Mr Rudd acquiring the leadership seamlessly, leading a united party, and of his ''honeymoon'' lasting all the way to polling day.

Switch to Rudd would boost chances, but figures are slippery

The Coalition says asylum seekers who commit serious crimes should be deported without having access to the right of appeal.

Foreigners who commit crimes in Australia can already have their visa cancelled if they are sentenced to more than a year in prison.

However, the Coalition argues foreign criminals have been exploiting the appeals process.

Shadow attorney-general George Brandis says the lengthy appeals process should be ditched except in exceptional circumstances.

"There is a very direct link between the security of our borders and the safety of our streets," Senator Brandis told Channel Ten.

The Coalition says the changes would apply to all foreigners, including asylum seekers who are released into the community while they wait for their refugee applications to be considered.

Deputy Coalition leader Julie Bishop says the party would not violate international law, but it intends to send asylum seekers convicted of criminal offences back to the countries they have fled from.

"Australians deserve to be protected from people who come here and then commit crimes punishable by more than 12 months and then we would see to turn them back," she said.

"Now obviously there will be circumstances where countries won't take them back and I understand that."

The policy announcement comes after Egyptian asylum seeker Sayed Abdel Latif was found to have been living in community detention in Australia, despite the issuing of an Interpol "red notice" showing he had been convicted of murder and terror-related offences.

On Friday, murder and weapons convictions against Mr Abdel Latif were dropped by the international crime body at the request of Egyptian authorities.

Convictions of belonging to an illegally-formed extremist organisation and travel document forgery remain on his red notice.

Mr Abdel Latif, his wife and children remain in immigration detention.

Coalition announces plans to deport foreigners convicted of serious crimes - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)