Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent
June 25, 2013
Gillard appears safe in leadership battle
Prime Minister Julia Gillard looks set to avoid a major hurdle to her leadership on Tuesday.
A third push to reinstall Kevin Rudd as Labor leader was in disarray on Monday evening as it emerged its singular strategy of forcing pro-Gillard ministers to take the initiative and ''tap'' the Prime Minister on the shoulder had come to nothing.
With no plan B, it now looks increasingly likely there will be no change of leader as time for a final showdown runs out.
In disarray: Kevin Rudd's leadership challenge. Photo: Andrew Meares
Instead, pressure is intensifying on the former prime minister to back up his camp's faux campaign with a formal challenge as frustrated MPs on both sides of the stand-off come to the realisation that Julia Gillard will not give in.
Mr Rudd was not present when Labor caucus met on Tuesday morning as he travelled to Sydney to attend the memorial for Hazel Hawke from 1.30pm. Any ballot this week is also thrown into doubt as the former prime minister is travelling to China on Thursday to attend a conference.
Ms Gillard, who will also attend the Hazel Hawke memorial, offered Mr Rudd a lift in her VIP jet, but he declined, with his office explaining he had already made travel arrangements.
Absolutely confident of her causcus majority: Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Photo: Andrew Meares
As the destructive stalemate enters its presumed end-game in the last days of the 43rd Parliament, an uneasy consensus is emerging that it will be up to Mr Rudd to force a spill through demonstrating overwhelming support in the 102-member caucus.
But with the cabinet and her backbench holding firm, Ms Gillard is standing her ground.
The Rudd camp, which continues to say its man must be drafted, is uncertain of its next move, unable even to say if he would nominate in a ballot, or do as he did in March and sit on his hands.
Time for resolution: Climate Change Minister Greg Combet. Photo: Kate Geraghty
Ms Gillard affirmed on Monday that she was ''absolutely'' confident of her caucus majority, insisting the leadership question had been dealt with in March.
But others acting on her behalf taunted Mr Rudd to end the destabilisation by either launching a formal challenge or pulling back.
Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said the leadership needed to be settled this week. ''We certainly can't have this go on,'' he told Radio National. ''It's just got to be resolved. Kevin Rudd has to decide whether he's a candidate or not and then do something about it. The ball's in Kevin Rudd's court.''
According to a caucus spokesman, leadership was not discussed at the last scheduled caucus meeting before the election.
Instead, Ms Gillard told MPs on Tuesday morning that the September election would feature a choice between ''investment in the future'' and ''cuts to the bone''.
The Prime Minister also said that when Parliament rose at the end of the week, Labor would be running with three issues: education reforms, DisabilityCare and the NBN roll out.
Earlier on Tuesday, Labor senator and Rudd backer Mark Bishop said that Labor should be led by the person who gave it the best chance of winning the election.
But he would not be drawn on whether that should be Ms Gillard or Mr Rudd.
''I'm not going to address those sorts of issues now. We have a leader. We’ve had a set of words for 12 months. And Ms Gillard is our leader,'' he told Fairfax Media's Breaking Politics program.
Senator Bishop also hit out at cabinet ministers, such as Peter Garrett and Senator Stephen Conroy, who have recently restated they would quit their frontbench posts if Mr Rudd returned to the leadership.
''I've been somewhat disappointed by some of public commentary of my more senior colleagues in the last two or three days,'' he said, explaining that MPs should be more disciplined.
''You don't have the option where I come from of saying 'well, I like Jack, I don’t like Jill and I’ll only work under Jack'. So that's been a disappointing sideshow that cabinet ministers have engaged in.''
With the internal contest increasingly being fought on the airwaves, a Rudd supporter, NSW MP Stephen Jones, warned that the party faced a ''thumping'' and should hold a ballot this week.
The sense of desperation was added to by the latest national poll showing Labor's primary vote dipping below 30 per cent, and Ms Gillard's popularity losing more ground to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.
Pro-Rudd forces continue to discuss the idea of a senior delegation of ministers calling on Ms Gillard to stand down ''for the good of the party'', but privately strategists admit they are out of ideas.
