Some in the Labor Party see former prime minister Kevin Rudd as the reason for the Government's parlous position in the polls. Some see him as the only person with any chance of avoiding an electoral wipeout. And some see him as both.
With the three-year anniversary of Mr Rudd's ousting from the top job only just passed, his forces are at work to restore him as prime minister and leader of a party riven by three years of internecine conflict.
Those tensions had most recently come to a head in March, when another former leader, Simon Crean, urged Julia Gillard to call a leadership spill after months of flatlining polls pointed to a clear win for Tony Abbott’s Coalition at the September election.
Ms Gillard brought on the spill within hours, forcing Mr Rudd to not contest a ballot he would have lost. He said then that there were "no circumstances" under which he would return to the Labor leadership. By last week, that position had been amended to that he "did not believe" there were circumstances that would facilitate a return.
That was seized upon as a signal that the manoeuvrings and deals were back on, despite Mr Rudd's vow that he would not launch a challenge.
Instead, he would only accept the position again if drafted by an "overwhelming majority" of Labor MPs. The petition being circulated among the caucus could be used to satisfy that part of Mr Rudd's pledge.
Kevin Rudd
- Born September 21, 1957
- Elected as MP for Griffith in 1998
- Elected Opposition Leader in December, 2006
- Elected Prime Minister in December, 2007
- Ousted by Julia Gillard in June 2010
- Foreign Minister from September 2010 to February 2012
For his part, Mr Rudd, the former diplomat, has said he is a changed man, having taken on board the criticisms levelled at him from disgruntled colleagues in the wake of his 2010 removal. His office was accused of micromanaging ministers - or excluding them from decision-making altogether – and Mr Rudd himself had a reputation for bursts of anger and brusqueness.
It is a reputation that stayed with Mr Rudd from his time as chief of staff to then Queensland premier Wayne Goss and later as his state's top bureaucrat.
To assuage MPs' concerns, he has now promised a decentralised management style and a more conciliatory personal tone.
How conciliatory Mr Rudd could be with a deposed Ms Gillard in this year’s campaign – and what role she would accept within it – remain to be seen.
In the 2010 campaign, Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard posed for a photo opportunity in Brisbane intended to show the pair working together. They then formed a fractious relationship from September 2010 until February 2012 with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister Gillard’s foreign minister.
Their relationship finally broke down after the leaking of a video showing Mr Rudd swearing in frustration while attempting to record a video message in Mandarin. Mr Rudd resigned from Cabinet and launched a challenge that was resoundingly swept aside by the Gillard camp, 71 votes to 31.
That vote came after an extraordinary barrage against Mr Rudd from ministers and MPs who served under him. Wayne Swan called Mr Rudd’s tenure "dysfunctional", Tony Burke described an office paralysed by chaos, while Stephen Conroy said Mr Rudd had "contempt" for his colleagues.
Video: Andrew Green profiles Kevin Rudd (ABC News)
Mr Rudd's power was always founded on his public popularity, honed through years of media saturation first as shadow minister pressuring Howard ministers on the Iraq war fallout and later via regular appearances on morning television.
After sitting out ballots for the Labor leadership during the tenures of Crean, Kim Beazley and Mark Latham, Mr Rudd assumed the position in December 2006 with Ms Gillard as his deputy.
The pair rode a wave of anti-Howard sentiment evident in the Kevin07 campaign to a convincing win. Early achievements included the apology to the Stolen Generations and ratifying the Kyoto protocol.
But with the failure of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and a sustained attack against Mr Rudd’s proposed mining tax, his personal approval rating began to slide and a one-term Labor government seemed a distinct possibility. Mr Rudd’s factional weakness was exposed and he was ousted.
His return would be predicated upon an expected bounce in the polls – although his honouring of Ms Gillard's commitment to hold the election in September would need to be tested.
So too would be the reaction of Gillard-aligned ministers, especially those most vocal against him a year ago.
While an election earlier than planned could allow Mr Rudd to capitalise on a honeymoon period in a bid to revive the Kevin07 momentum, the 2013 campaign would involve a far greater spotlight on the make-up of his team.
Kevin Rudd: spoiler or saviour? - Labor in Turmoil - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
