Gabrielle Chan Wednesday 28 January 2015
- Swing voters angry at Medicare co-payment and university fees
- ReachTEL survey will increase unease among backbenchers
- See full poll data
Prime minister Tony Abbott will try to reboot the government’s agenda with a speech in Canberra next week. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
Coalition MPs are trailing in eight of 11 marginal seats held by the government, new polling shows, with swing voters turned off by the government’s two key budget policies of a Medicare co-payment and university fees.
The ReachTEL polling was conducted in January for the activist group Getup. It shows significant numbers of undecided voters in 11 marginal seats with strong resistance to two issues: the Medicare co-payment and university deregulation, both of which have yet to pass the Senate.
The polling was conducted on 21 January, after the government backed down on planned cuts to Medicare rebates for GP consultations shorter than 10 minutes but before the controversial decision by Tony Abbott to award Prince Philip a knighthood.
The Coalition still plans to go ahead with what has been widely known as a Medicare co-payment which effectively cuts the doctors’ rebate by $5 for adult non-concession patients. GPs are likely to pass on the cost.
The poll results will increase the pressure on nervous backbenchers in the government party room just as the prime minister is set to deliver an important address to the National Press Club next week to reboot the government’s agenda.
The poll surveyed 7,368 people, including 742 undecided voters, in the seats of Barton, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Reid and Banks in NSW, Petrie and Capricornia in Queensland, Lyons in Tasmania, Solomon in the Northern Territory, Hindmarsh in South Australia and Deakin in Victoria.
In the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in southern NSW held by Liberal MP Peter Hendy, the Coalition is trailing Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 38.8% to 47.7%, with 13.5% undecided.
Among those undecided voters in Eden-Monaro, 66.7% strongly oppose or oppose the government’s plan to introduce a Medicare co-payment. Of those undecided voters, 53.8% said the co-payment would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition at the next election.
Eden Monaro has swung towards the elected government since the 1970s.
In the provincial Queensland coastal seat of Capricornia, held by LNP MP Michelle Landry, the Coalition is trailing Labor on a 2PP basis by 43.5% to 51.4% for the ALP. Already in the grip of a state election, the polling results show the fewest undecided voters in any of the 11 electorates, at 5.2% of those polled.
One in three undecided voters polled in Capricornia said they were less likely to vote Coalition as a result of the Medicare co-payment, while 38.9% said they were less likely to vote Coalition due to the deregulation of university fees.
Also in Queensland, in the outer metropolitan seat of Petrie held by Liberal MP Luke Howarth, the Coalition is trailing Labor by 43.7% to 50.4%, with 5.9% undecided.
In the Tasmanian electorate of Lyons, held by Liberal MP Eric Hutchinson, Labor leads on a 2PP basis by 47.9% to 43.6%, with 8.5% undecided.
While it is usual for there to be high numbers of undecided voters so far out from an election, the co-payment and university deregulation still loom large for undecided voters, eight months after the budget that revealed the changes.
And four months before the next budget, the measures have yet to pass the Parliament.
Getup campaigns director Mark Connelly said the polling bore out the distaste for the federal budget, which was widely seen as unfair by voters.
“Australians are angry about these policies across the board, but it’s especially strong among the swing voters who will decide the outcome of the next election,” said Connelly.
“These policies are an attack on the Australians who do most of the working and paying and living and lifting in our communities. It’s no wonder Liberal backbenchers have been getting an angry earful about the GP co-pay and university deregulation from their voters. Now these numbers back up those backbench concerns.”
