By Dale Hughes 23 January 2015
Photo: When Tony Abbott won the Liberal Party leadership from Malcolm Turnbull, he didn't have the faith of the party; he had the timing. (AAP: Alan Porritt)
Tony Abbott's problems don't centre around what he has or hasn't achieved in government, but with how he achieved the leadership in the first place, writes Liberal party member Dale Hughes.
The rumblings have started. Talk about Tony Abbott's leadership is growing louder, and disgruntled Liberal members are venting their frustration with the government's seeming inability to navigate a clear path.
I for one am underwhelmed with the government's performance thus far. As one Liberal voter reminded the Prime Minister on talkback radio this week, it's not so much the policies (although some have been ill-considered) but the botched sell and the backflips. Voters will generally accept that a government will experience difficulties from time to time, as long as there is a clear narrative and the ability to present it to the electorate in a logical manner.
As for members of the party, they are left with the job of defending the party brand in the face of criticism on the streets and in the community. It is reasonable to argue that the debt needs to be paid and that we need to live within our means, but the job is made much more difficult when the government doesn't stay the course, or when the Treasurer proves out of touch by saying that the poor "don't drive cars".
The people who hurt the most from a backflip or a gaffe aren't the general voters, but the members of the party that have pledged their allegiance to the government cause. They have the most to lose, for it's not only a matter of parochial interest, but pride that's at stake. It's not surprising that after a frustrating 2014, Liberal members are starting to voice their concern.
Did Liberal members dislike Malcolm Turnbull? Some did, but for the majority of the party base, no. Turnbull's problem was that he wasn't gaining traction.
That Abbott is currently experiencing dissent in the ranks is hardly surprising. Yet the root of his problems doesn't sit at what he has or hasn't achieved in government, but with how he achieved the leadership in the first place. Abbott's election as leader of the party in December 2009 was not the product of design, but circumstance.
The truth is, the Liberal Party has never handled being in Opposition well. There is a born-to-rule mentality ingrained in the party's culture; this is not necessarily a bad thing. The party is always looking for the leader to deliver it from the wilderness. The leader who will deliver power. Without power, the cause is worthless.
When Malcolm Turnbull was at the helm, the party was languishing in the polls and morale was low, as it appeared a foregone conclusion that Rudd would coast to victory at the 2010 election.
Turnbull's support for the Rudd government's emissions trading scheme was not popular within the party, as it was a massive concession to the government with little electoral gain. Hence Abbott's election as leader by one vote. It was never intended that Abbott would end up the face of the party, but that's how it played out.
David Marr, in his essay about Abbott, "Political Animal", recalled the day:
The party was almost as stunned as the nation. "God Almighty," one of the Liberals cried in the party room that day. "What have we done?"
Abbott didn't have the faith of the party, but he had the timing.
His performance in Opposition caused members to bite their tongue. Here he was, the man we all underestimated, getting under Rudd's skin and applying pressure on Labor for the first time. For Liberal pundits, concerns were brushed aside as Abbott came within a whisker of power in 2010. It's amazing what a sniff of victory can do.
That victory came in 2013. However the celebration was for the Liberals returning to power, not for the man at the helm.
Why? Because we also know an uncomfortable truth: Abbott is Prime Minister not because the voters wanted him, but because they didn't want Labor. As long as power was the end result, it didn't matter.
What we are seeing now is the inevitable playing out of a narrative where reservations previously left silent are now presenting themselves, as the reality sets in that the government's grip on power is slipping as it edges painfully to the 2016 election.
Leadership talk is occurring for one reason only: power, and the want to retain it. Did Liberal members dislike Malcolm Turnbull? Some did, but for the majority of the party base, no. Turnbull's problem was that he wasn't gaining traction. He would not be the leader to bring government, and that more than anything else brought about his demise.
Abbott delivered government. Yet now as the clouds set in and the weather changes, the question lies with whether or not he can retain it. Circumstance is what elevated him, and circumstance will bring about his demise. That's politics.
His leadership of the party hinges not on faith in the man, but delivery of power. For a party without power is a party without purpose, no matter who is at the top.
Dale Hughes is a member of the Victorian Liberal Party and a blogger at thoughthub.com.au.
The power politics of Tony Abbott's leadership woes - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
