By ABC's Marius Benson Thursday 1 January 2015

Photo: The earnest hope of the Abbott Government as it steps gingerly into 2015 is that the new year will be as unlike 2014 as possible. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

If a "ragged" year saw the Government reaching for the reset button in December, will another bad 12 months see them turning to the eject button, asks Marius Benson.

The earnest hope of the Abbott Government as it steps gingerly into 2015 is that the new year will be as unlike 2014 as possible.

Whether they will succeed is unknowable, but the balance of evidence indicates that the coming year is likely to see the current downward trajectory confirmed rather than reversed.

The old year began with promise and promises - open for business, adults in charge, governing for all, tough but fair economic management. It ends with the Government looking with surprise and disappointment at a political path that has seen the glory days immediately post-election transformed into poll figures that through the year had the Government trailing Labor by significant margins.

The troubles of 2014 saw Tony Abbott hitting reset buttons at the end of the year, policies trimmed, the ministry reshuffled and his own office rejigged. If the Government's fortunes don't improve over the next 12 months, December 2015 could see that final month regain its recent standing as the political "killing season".

Andrew Robb, the Trade Minister, put his finger on a key political truth when he was reviewing the defeat of the Coalition government in Victoria in November - and explaining why the federal government could not be blamed for that loss. The polls, he told Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, had been running against the state government for a long time and he knew, as a former campaign director, that when that pattern is set it won't be changed in the short term or in an election campaign.

Exactly the position you are in now, said Barrie Cassidy. "What do you mean?" asked a genuinely puzzled Robb. When it was pointed out that the Abbott Government had been in a polling trough for a long time Robb laughed a little uneasily and said there was a long, long way to go till polling day. True enough, but if there is to be a change of fortunes where will it come from?

On policy there has been some change. The paid parental leave policy, the leader's call, the signature policy, is friendless, diminished and fading from view. A tax review will provide a basis for a rethinking of the tax system but the Government has already ruled out changes to superannuation taxes and the GST and other key areas in this term. The temporary 2 per cent levy on top incomes is held up as evidence that the Government is spreading the pain in its measures to bring spending and revenue into line.

But the overall measures, like cutting family tax benefits, the GP co-payment and fuel indexation hit low and middle incomes hardest, because high incomes don't rely on government support in those areas. Voters do not believe the pain is being evenly shared, because it is not. John Hewson put the impact on lower income households of the May budget at 10 per cent and more, while high incomes suffered a temporary sting of just 2 per cent on incomes.

The announced changes of policy could bring a change of view from the voters but the Government shows no sign of taking significant measures to look at taxing assets or superannuation differently - changes that could address the unfairness charge.

In fact, on New Year's Eve the newest member of the federal ministry, Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, was repeating the Government's determination to stay on the course it has set. He told Simon Santow on AM: "We are very conscious that we need to improve our message next year ... I understand is that some of the reforms have not been popular, but that doesn't mean they haven't been right. And it is our responsibility and our opportunity to convince the Australian people why we believe we are on the right path going forward."

Mr Frydenberg and other Government representatives point out that the Howard government was at times as far behind and still managed to come back. But many governments who have been trailing have not come back. Just ask Denis Napthine.

In addition to selling the policies that are still in play, Mr Abbott stresses the policy achievements of his first 15 months: the boats stopped, the carbon tax scrapped, the mining tax gone and then a medley of references to repairing the roads and the budget. The boats issue has been a plus, but its importance is likely to fade with time and it is an achievement of varying importance in different parts of the country; Queensland and NSW care much more than Victoria. In fact Victoria is now quite a problem for the Coalition, but more on that in a moment.

The carbon tax saving is priced by the Government at $550, an annual improvement per household. But it is a well tuned household that will notice a $10 a week change in its fortunes, and its effect is dwarfed by other budget measures. As for the mining tax, by the time Labor had finally come up with a form that was achievable even the miners didn't mind it.

On the Labor side in 2015 they are likely to continue conducting their politics in line with the Tony Abbott playbook. That is, attack the Government on a few issues with endlessly repeated slogans: "Unfair, broken promise, internal discord" - and toss in a bit of a scare campaign on the GST as well.

Mr Abbott's greatest weapon in achieving power was Labor disunity, but that resource is unlikely to be provided again. The trauma of the Rudd-Gillard four-year death-roll is entirely fresh enough to keep any internal Labor dissatisfaction contained. And Bill Shorten, while far from embraced by the Australian electorate, will enjoy the harmony that goes with improving polling numbers. The reverse is true for the Coalition, which has already seen tensions manifest as public support dwindles.

So if Labor is not going to co-operate and polices are not going to change, what else can improve the Abbott Government's fortunes?

What outside event, what deus ex machina, can change the political settings? It has happened before. In 2001 Kim Beazley looked set for The Lodge, but 9/11 and asylum boats rose up to save the Howard government.

The same could happen again, but so far one-off events have had no lasting impact on the fall and fall of the Abbott Government's standing. The APEC meeting in Brisbane, which brought world leaders to our shore and to Mr Abbott's side, had little effect beyond a blip of approval for the promise to "shirtfront" Vladimir Putin. When MH 17 went down in Ukraine in July, approval for the Prime Minister's and the Government's response saw support rise, but only briefly.

Nothing has had a lasting impact on a growing public disenchantment with the Government, evidenced by polls, by anecdotal evidence, by party polling, focus groups and by the seemingly universal agreement of politicians and pundits. And at the end of the year The Australian pointed to a specific worrying trend for the Government. It is losing the South. Victoria is shearing off from what is seen by many, including Victorian state Coalition MPs, as a NSW operation. South Australia too, according to the Australian's Newspolls, is a state where Government seats stand to be lost as voters worry about the loss of industry.

Toss into that the complexities of the Senate and a dawdling economy and Mr Abbott and his Government find themselves in a tougher position at the beginning of 2015 than they did at the start of 2014 - and it is easier to see reasons to believe that for the Coalition things will get more difficult rather than easier.

If a "ragged" year saw the Government reaching for the reset button in December 2014, will another bad 12 months see them turning to the "eject" button in a year's time?

Marius Benson can be heard covering federal politics on ABC NewsRadio Breakfast each weekday morning. View his full profile here.

Can Abbott go from 'ragged' to riches in 2015? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)