By Terry Barnes Friday 19 December 2014

Photo: I believe that Tony Abbott will yet prevail in 2015, but he needs to get some things under control. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

Since the budget the Government has lost a mountain of political capital for little or no gain. So as it ends 2014, what does it need to do in 2015? Tony Abbott's former adviser Terry Barnes writes.

A year ago I wrote on The Drum that Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his Coalition team had had an unexpectedly rocky first 100 days.

The Government had fallen behind in the polls just three months after winning office, trailing new Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and a divided Labor Party after the disastrous Kevin Rudd-Julia Gillard years. I wrote then that Abbott "has the makings of a great Prime Minister within him. But first he must fix the teething problems dogging his Government, and head off negative voter perceptions from becoming entrenched."

These fixes largely didn't happen and opinion polls indicate consistently that negative voter attitudes are well entrenched. The shredding by an implacably hostile Senate of the Government's budget, resistance to unpopular measures like the $7 GP co-payment and university fee deregulation, and regular ministerial own goals like Treasurer Joe Hockey's "poor people don't drive" gaffe largely have overshadowed policy successes, notwithstanding especially Abbott and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop's impressive performances on the world stage. The PM's own acknowledgment that the Government's performance has been "ragged" is an understatement.

Back then I suggested four Government regrouping points: getting its story straight; keeping its promises; re-jigging its political management; and taking a summer break. Only on promise-keeping can Abbott and his team be said to since have delivered. They have stopped the boats, repealed the carbon tax, started the task of budget repair and began investing in the roads of the 21st century.

Beyond those four key pillars, election commitments large and small are being honoured, and the Government belatedly is learning the art of compromise to pass contentious measures, like the GP co-payment (a version of which I originally advocated), university fee deregulation and Abbott's paid parental leave scheme.

But especially since the budget the Abbott Government has lost a mountain of political capital this year for little or no gain. So as it ends 2014, what does it need to do in 2015?

First, the Government needs not only get its story straight, but have one. It never seems to have grasped that it was not embraced in its own right: it was elected because it wasn't Rudd-Gillard Labor. Abbott needed only to keep his team focused and disciplined to win, and consequently there's been little overarching narrative on which Abbott, as PM, has explained consistently to Australians what he's doing, why he's doing it, and where he is leading our nation.

Given it hasn't successfully defined itself, it's no wonder that the Abbott Government largely is being defined very negatively by its adversaries and detractors in Parliament and the mainstream and social media.

Abbott badly needs a narrative circuit-breaker to reboot the Government's fortunes. He could consider kicking off 2015 with a parliamentary scene-setter similar to an American president's State of the Union address, reflecting on where the Government's been (including acknowledging mistakes made), where it is now and setting both its agenda and narrative for the political year - and years - ahead.

Despite their ragged year, however, all is not lost for Abbott and the Coalition. But their revival window is small.

Budget speeches traditionally play that role, but 2014's political fallout means that there simply aren't five more months to waste. And showing a clear vision makes it a lot harder for the Government's political opponents to justify their own intransigence to a jaded voting public.

The Government's political management still troubles a year on. Abbott's high-profile chief of staff Peta Credlin has become a lightning rod, but the Government shaking the electorate's faith is a team effort. Its neglecting to till the ground for a tough cutting budget (narrative again!), with contentious measures like university fee deregulation appearing as if from nowhere, and its not selling these consistently well afterwards, have cost the Coalition dearly.

Labor outflanking it in courting crossbench mavericks like former Palmer United senator Jacqui Lambie hasn't helped either. The awful day late last month, when the Government had more positions on the GP co-payment than the Kama Sutra, was all the more embarrassing because it was so avoidable by communication and coordination between ministers and their offices.

The Government also has too few consistent performers doing the heavy lifting in telling the Government's story. Abbott, Bishop, Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann are standouts. Education Minister Christopher Pyne has been dogged, and dogmatic, in pursuing his policy agenda, and Trade Minister Andrew Robb has achieved three huge free trade deals. But beyond that, team performance has been patchy. When the overall quality of the Coalition backbench and junior ministry exceeds that of the Cabinet, with talents like Josh Frydenberg, Sussan Ley, Alan Tudge, Christian Porter and Kelly O'Dwyer demanding promotion, Abbott needs to bite a hard bullet and reshuffle sooner rather than later, and having an external management consultant go through the back office might also help.

And for goodness sake Abbott and his team must get some time off this summer. While they badly need a break, we badly need a break from them, and from Shorten's mob too for that matter. Besides, holidays recharge, rejuvenate, and allow exhausted leaders to reflect. Governments' poll ratings traditionally improve after summer breaks, and refreshed ministers make better judgments and decisions on their return.

Despite their ragged year, however, all is not lost for Abbott and the Coalition. But their revival window is small. If the Government's position hasn't improved by the next budget, its chances of electoral success in 2016 - let alone in a 2015 double dissolution if the Senate remains feral - will be slim.

I believe that Abbott will yet prevail. As he's yet again showed us this week around the horrific events in Sydney, he has the character, confidence and inner strength of a natural leader. Reviving the Coalition's fortunes after its largely self-made dog of a year will test the PM's leadership to the limit in 2015, but he's up to it.

Terry Barnes is a policy consultant and formerly advised Howard government ministers, including Tony Abbott. View his full profile here

After a ragged year, where to for Abbott? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)