By Lewis and Woods Tuesday 2 December 2014
Photo: Even compared to Ju-liar, Tony Abbott is suffering a serious trust deficit. (AAP: Lukas Coch)
Tony Abbott's pursuit of Julia Gillard over broken promises set the benchmark for his own rule, applying a strait-jacket to each and every commitment he was to make, write Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods.
In an effort to haul his Government into dry-dock to clear the barnacles, Prime Minister Tony Abbott has exposed some fundamental structural flaws with his ship of state.
While the pretence of this week's marathon press conference was to draw a line through a 'ragged' week, the reality is it has been a ragged year and a bit since the federal election.
The reason for these problems, highlighted in this week's Essential Report, comes down to three key elements: the Coalition's fundamentally negative election agenda, its incessant attack on Labor's lies, and the construction of its first federal budget.
And the problem for the Prime Minister is that these are not discrete issues to be managed - they are flaws that feed into each other. Worse still, each of the flaws were incubated in opposition and have come back to haunt the government in power.
First, the Government's agenda. Despite the Prime Minister being a self-styled conviction politician, voters don't really seem to be sure what the conviction is. Tony Abbott rates poorly on vision, trust and being in touch with ordinary people.
Behind this confusion is the problem that Tony Abbott's vision has been a negative one - articulated in opposition as stopping the boats, cutting the carbon and mining taxes, and reining in the debt.
There is no doubting the Coalition was successful in elevating these issues into vote-changers. It is also true that on boats and taxes at least, the government has delivered on those promises.
But in all three instances, the Coalition in opposition created problems that didn't really have a significant impact on the lives of voters or the future of the nation: stopping asylum seekers did not get cars off the road, cutting the carbon tax has not significantly driven prices down, the mining tax was not collecting money anyway.
All three issues were symbolic issues - successfully transformed into matters of national import by the Opposition, but issues that have no bearing on the day-to-day lives of voters.
The second flaw was the way Tony Abbott ran on trust and the truth, a tried tactic in opposition, but one that this opposition leader evolved into political art.
Julia Gillard conceded she had changed her position on carbon pricing in the following terms: "Yes, I did say that and circumstances have changed."
Abbott and his media cheer squad were unrelenting in response.
The PM was "Ju-liar" and the issue of dealing with the crisis of global warming was degraded into an issue of trust in Government.
But in setting these ground rules, the PM was also establishing the benchmark for his own rule, applying a strait-jacket to each and every commitment he was to make.
In this week's marathon press conference, it was Prime Minister Abbott who attempted to justify reneging on a promise not to cut ABC or SBS funding with the eerily familiar refrain : "... things have moved on, circumstances are different."
Circumstances do change in politics, but for a leader who came to power on the basis of absolute truth, it is not a position that is tenable. Even compared to Ju-liar, Tony Abbott is suffering a serious trust deficit. His 'trustworthy' rating of 30 per cent is exactly the same as Gillard's in June last year, immediately before being replaced by Kevin Rudd.
For Abbott, most voters aren't inclined to split hairs on the particulars of promise-breaking.
The third and perhaps most serious structural flaw however is Joe Hockey's first budget, still becalmed in the Senate more than six months after it was handed down.
It is here that the Government's more visible barnacles are exposed - the Medicare co-payment and the deregulation of higher education.
While the PM attempted to 'soften' a few policies yesterday, the truth is the public has largely rejected them in principle and want the Senate to block their passage.
That's because the budget has been perceived as being unfair from day one, the perception being that the delivery on the promise to cut the debt was actually a fig leaf for wider ideological indulgences.
Finally, with reports of the budget position set to deteriorate further and no prospect of getting the budget through the Senate, all three of the government's structural flaws look set to sink them.
When global commodity prices declined under Labor the Coalition gave Wayne Swan no leeway, making the size of the debt his personal political issue. In the campaign, Tony Abbott promised to cut the debt regardless of external circumstances. And he promised to do so with no cuts to health or education.
Negativity, absolute truth and a budget out of step with community values - these flaws feed into each other until it's hard to see how the Coalition will be able to right its ship.
The lesson for Tony Abbott, and indeed Bill Shorten, is that governments are largely defined by the sort of opposition they were. As any ship owner will tell you, if you are trying to make your ship seaworthy, far better to begin with a sound design and good materials than trying to retrofit a leaky hulk once it has started to take in water.
The survey was conducted online from November 28 to December 1, 2014, and is based on 1,001 respondents.
Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications. View his full profile here. Jackie Woods is a communications consultant at Essential Media Communications. View her full profile here.
Tony Abbott is haunted by his past self - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
