Sean Nicholls Sydney Morning Herald State Political Editor
December 23, 2014
ANALYSIS
John Robertson was always going to replaced as Labor leader before he had the chance to become premier, but few could have predicted it would end like this.
Only a few days ago the ALP was gearing up to take the man who had slogged it out as opposition leader for the past four years into the crucial 2015 election campaign.
True, the polls were showing Robertson was not personally popular but party bosses were reasonably satisfied with the direction they were heading.
Labor was on track to achieve a swing in the order of 10 or 11 per cent and claw back about 15 seats. This achievement, although modest, would put it in a competitive position for the 2019 poll.
Under the ALP rules, Robertson was certain to face a leadership spill after the election, assuming a Labor loss. He was expected to lose.
But then came the revelations about Man Haron Monis and Robertson's fateful decision to sign a letter of request to the department of community services.
Incredibly, it seems Robertson volunteered the information in a bid to show that he had done nothing wrong; that he had treated Monis as he would any other constituent.
That might have washed with any other figure, but not with a man who has become such a reviled character.
Any legitimacy in Robertson's actions was swept away by the opportunity the story presented to those who have long been dissatisfied with his leadership. They quickly took the opportunity to strike, forcing him to jump before he was pushed.
So how will the decision to effectively topple yet another Labor leader play out for the ALP?
The Monis revelations meant Robertson had become a liability in the looming electoral contest.
The Baird government would never be able to use them directly against him for fear of being accused of politicising a tragedy.
But there's little doubt it would have sought to dog whistle on the issue by questioning his "judgment" – the same questions which motivated his own colleagues who lost faith in his leadership.
The more positive view is that – like Barry O'Farrell before him – Robertson's demise gives the ALP a much-needed chance to present a rejuvenated leader and party to the public at the election.
If Labor chooses its new leader wisely it has the chance to wrong foot the government. Who knows? As Mike Baird has demonstrated a change of leader can work wonders for a party. But only, of course, if it can find the right person.
