Peter Hartcher, Mark Kenny February 2, 2015 - 8:12AM
Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop, under growing pressure from their colleagues to challenge Tony Abbott for the prime ministership, are now actively considering their options, bringing closer the prospect of a strike against Mr Abbott in the weeks ahead.
The two top candidates for the Liberal leadership had been rebuffing their colleagues' demands, but the shock loss of the Queensland election on Saturday jolted the party.
Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop and Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull are understood privately to be talking to each other about the future leadership. Photo: Andrew Meares, Nic Walker
By Sunday, Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop had started actively weighing their options for the first time. The two are close political friends. They are understood privately to be talking to each other about the future leadership of the party, raising the prospect of a joint ticket.
Both publicly declared their loyalty to Mr Abbott on the weekend. But a new Fairfax-Ipsos poll will do nothing to calm jangling Coalition nerves, despite Mr Abbott attempting to tie off more unpopular policies.
With his leadership under extreme pressure, Mr Abbott will finally walk away from his signature paid parental leave scheme on Monday after doggedly defending it as a core belief for years.
Itself a widely criticised $5.5 billion "captain's call" which was announced without reference to the party room, Mr Abbott will finally run up the white flag at the National Press Club, accepting his friendless policy – a high profile election promise – was unaffordable and is henceforth "off the table".
"I have listened to the feedback from my colleagues and from mums and dads around Australia – and they have said that, with our current budget constraints, the better focus now is on childcare if we want higher participation and a stronger economy. So a bigger, better PPL scheme is off the table," he will say, according to speech notes provided by his office.
He will instead propose a new childcare assistance deal, and will also use the speech to flag a jobs package, new tighter national security laws, and changes to foreign investment rules.
It comes as voters across the country are abandoning the Coalition in droves.
Just three in 10 expect Mr Abbott to make it to the next election compared to seven out of 10 who say Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is safe in his position. Mr Shorten has also widened his advantage on the question of preferred prime minister, with half of all voters, or 50 per cent, choosing him over the incumbent, on 34.
A Queensland-style electoral rout now looms as a genuine possibility in 2016 with a Fairfax-Ipsos poll, showing the ALP has surged to the lead with a primary vote of 40 per cent, equalling its best performance in the months following the unpopular May budget last year.
The Coalition's percentage has slipped backwards to 38.
The result puts Labor solidly ahead after preferences with 54 per cent of the vote to the Coalition on just 46 per cent. That represents a 7.5 swing away from the Coalition approaching the halfway mark of its first term and would see around 36 Coalition seats surrendered if the swing were uniform.
The statistically weighted nationwide telephone survey of 1405 adults was conducted from Thursday to Saturday – before the stunning Queensland result which looks to have wiped roughly the same number of state seats off the LNP column in the Sunshine State.
Mr Abbott's approval rating – those voters who approve of his performance (29 per cent) minus those who disapprove (67 per cent) – has tanked after a disastrous start to 2015 and now stands at minus 38. That represents a precipitous 19-point deterioration in his approval rating since December when it was already in strongly negative territory at minus 19.
It is a lower approval rating than any of the previous three prime ministers at the same point of their first terms in office with John Howard registering an approval of 46 per cent and Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard registering 74 and 33 respectively.
Mr Shorten's approval is in positive territory with fewer detractors than supporters giving him an approval rating of plus 10 – up five points since December.
The result is sure to strengthen the arm of a growing number of Coalition MPs who believe Mr Abbott should relinquish the leadership in favour of either Communications Minister Turnbull, Foreign Affairs Minister Bishop, or Social Services Minister Scott Morrison.
The Coalition's first preference vote has dipped 3 points since December to be just 38. It reached 45 per cent at the September 2013 election while Labor's was just 33 at that time.
Based on preference flows from that election, Labor enjoys an 8-point buffer with 54 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to the Coalition on 46. The Coalition achieved an actual share of the vote in 2013 of 53.5 to Labor's 46.5.
However when voters were asked where their second preference would go now, Labor's lead grew to a landslide-inducing 12-point advantage with a 56 per cent share of the overall vote to just 44 for the combined Liberal and Nationals parties.
Liberals are now actively discussing the leadership in the wake of a horror start to 2015 capped off by the Prime Minister's self-inflicted knights and dames controversy, and the spectacular repudiation of the Liberal National Party government in Queensland.
Many worry that the Newman LNP government was of a similar ilk to the Abbott administration in Canberra, suggesting it will go the same way unless radical surgery is undertaken.
Senior ministers continue to rally to the Prime Minister's cause, claiming he will lead the government to the next election. A two-day planning and policy cabinet meeting is scheduled to begin on Tuesday with ministers preparing to confront Mr Abbott on his performance.
They will be watching nervously on Monday during the Press Club address. The address has now assumed critical significance in his survival with MPs looking for evidence that he has the plans and the communications wherewithal to carry them to voters. But insiders admit a process of questioning and destabilisation is under way which may now be unstoppable.
A senior backbencher, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Mr Abbott's tenure as Prime Minister was already terminal, with the only questions being how it ends and when.
He said it was in a "death spiral" primarily because Australians had decided on him and they "would not come back" to the Coalition under his leadership.
The government's woes appear to be particularly focused on the leadership with voters expressing relatively high levels of confidence and satisfaction on some of the key policy issues.
For example, nearly three quarters of voters (72 per cent) say they are confident that the government is doing a good job of responding to the terrorist threat, and comfortably more than half think action needs to be taken to rein in potentially burgeoning Medicare costs – including via a $5 cut in the rebate for non-concessional patients.
A surprisingly high one in four voters even backed the awarding of an Australia Day knighthood for the Queen's husband, Prince Philip, despite the "captain's pick" decision of the Prime Minister becoming the flashpoint for what may be an assault on his leadership.
Labor is now bracing for the possibility of a switch to a new prime minister and the potential of an election this year if the new leader gets a poll bounce and seeks to capitalise on it by seeking a fresh mandate.
Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop actively considering their options as leadership crisis looms
