By Toby Ralph 5February 2015

Photo: On the one hand Tony Abbott is said to be likeable in private, but on the other hand the public don't see that. (AAP: Montage/ABC)

Tony Abbott's rating as a leader flounders somewhere between asbestos and Ebola, and history suggests he doesn't have the time to turn this image around and stave off a backbencher attack, writes Toby Ralph.

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a politician in possession of a bad public image is very probably charming in private.

This curiously counter-intuitive phenomenon tends to work equally successfully in reverse. It perplexed me for years until I realised that the gruesome business of cultivating mass acceptability invariably requires the sacrifice of authenticity, just as those that remain authentic customarily surrender popularity.

Political image matters, but is oft misunderstood. Many conflate likeability and leadership, but were congeniality the criteria by which we selected our politicians Kylie Minogue would be PM with Wil Anderson Treasurer, ably supported by a cabinet of the Wiggles and Bananas in Pyjamas.

Australians recognise the need for a bit of mongrel in our leaders - we hire them to do difficult and unpopular things - but it's a fine line as Campbell Newman has just discovered.

Sacking 14,000 public servants to repurpose a billion bucks or more annually while simultaneously increasing public sector efficiency was no small achievement, while the decision to go to the election on the wobbly platform of leasing state assets was politically heroic.

If you get too tough too fast you'd better have a deep reservoir of goodwill to drain, or you'll be publicly thanked for your decisive action with an unemployment slip.

Ms Minogue might have sold it: Can-Do Campbell couldn't.

Which brings us to the comings and potential goings of Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

It is often said of our Prime Minister that if you want to hate him you'd best not meet him - but a fraction of one per cent of our 23,734,369 strong population has the luxury of forming this view - while the millions that do not increasingly line up to scoff at his actions.

Unwarranted or not, his rating as a leader flounders somewhere between asbestos and Ebola, causing some parliamentary colleagues to question if replacement might be more prudent than renovation.

The truth is that image, once damaged, is formidably difficult to repair.

In opposition Mr Abbott positioned himself as a fierce combatant, surrounding himself with a team that excelled at attack. That skill and team have been carried into Government, and his finest moments in office thus far have been those in which he could oppose something: Russians shooting down planes, turbaned terrorists and people smugglers.

However, he has yet to create a sturdy leadership narrative, so his image is being characterised by largely inconsequential but seemingly haphazard decisions like the perplexing knighting of a Duke.

Worse still his time may have run out, for the media smell blood and backbenchers are fretting in public.

How does a politician fix unpopularity fast? A well-trod path is to find a bigger menace and stand against it based on the notion that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

War works rather well.

In 1982 Margaret Thatcher was the least popular leader in recent British history. Then, apparently miffed by Argentinian involvement in an island of 1820 souls off their coast, she launched a naval task force.

A year and a thousand deaths later she was re-elected in a landslide.

Sadly an invasion of the Australian Antarctic Territory seems unlikely and were the Cocos to annex Christmas Island or New Zealand endeavour a hostile seizure of Tasmania I suspect few would care, so that seems to rule out a military adventure.

Without the drama of conflict, image repair requires the tedious slog of explaining what is envisaged, then why it will be of benefit and how it will happen.

Traditionally this is the domain of spin doctors, pollsters and other backroom ne'er-do-wells who conjure up uber-researched glib three word slogans in the patronising hope that punters will accept and echo them.

This hasn't worked for Mr Abbott since he won the fancy office and the big car with the flag, and I would counsel against it, for repeating a strategy that has manifestly failed would be foolish.

Authenticity and a prudent well-communicated plan with seamless execution pave the road to redemption.

But is there time to create that path?

History suggests not, for once backbencher clamour for change moves from their back rooms to our lounge rooms a dreadful inevitability looms.

Shakespeare had a view:

There is no help.
The bitter disposition of the time
Will have it so.

Toby Ralph is a marketing, strategy and communications consultant who has worked on nearly 50 elections across three continents.

The Abbott image: renovation or replacement? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)