Daniel Hurst, political correspondent Friday 6 February 2015
Senior minister says he hopes the prime minister will survive, but predicting leadership votes is ‘a very inexact science’
Christopher Pyne’s comments have further fuelled leadership speculation. Photograph: AAP
Christopher Pyne says he cannot be sure Tony Abbott has the numbers to survive a potential leadership spill next week.
Pyne, the education minister and leader of the house, said he did not know whether someone would move a spill motion at the first Liberal party room meeting of the year, but hoped the prime minister would retain the leadership.
“My job is to find out what my colleagues are thinking, and I have been talking to my colleagues and there is obviously some people who are saying that there should be a vote on Tuesday because they said it publicly and they have said it privately,” Pyne told the Nine Network on Friday.
“I can’t rule it out. I can tell you this – I will not be moving a vote on Tuesday in the party room.”
Asked whether Abbott had the numbers to survive such a vote, Pyne said: “That is a very inexact science, but I hope he does.”
Pyne’s doubts were widely reported as a sign of waning confidence in Abbott’s prospects. A few hours later, Pyne gave a follow-up interview on Sky News “to clear up any misinterpretation whatsoever” of his “entirely unremarkable” comments.
Pyne said the media had “completely overreacted” and he reiterated that he did not believe there should be a spill motion or that Abbott should be replaced. The comments he made when tired at 6am were “in no way designed to kick any story along”.
“Obviously I can’t know what is in the minds of my colleagues,” Pyne told Sky News.
“I was simply pointing out the obvious: I can’t pretend to have extrasensory perception, but I don’t want there to be a leadership change and I don’t think the Australian public does.”
On Friday the Liberal MP Sharman Stone became the latest backbencher to publicly call for the leadership issue to be resolved next week, saying the speculation should not be allowed to “drag on and dribble on”.
Stone said a change of leadership, or a vote to keep Abbott, would allow the party to “get back to the business of governing this country”.
There is still no declared alternative contender for the leadership. The communications minister and former Liberal leader, Malcolm Turnbull, said Abbott had “had utter loyalty and consistency from his frontbench”.
“There is no tension between Tony and any of his senior colleagues; we are a very, very cohesive team and we are all supporting him,” Turnbull told a community forum on Thursday evening. “He is not being undermined by anyone, any of his senior colleagues whatsoever. It’s a very very united team.”
Abbott played down expectations of a spill motion next week, saying the government had had “a rough trot” but needed to “end the navel gazing”.
“I’m not expecting it,” the prime minister told 2GB on Friday.
“I’m expecting business as usual because this is a government with a very full agenda. Our immediate agenda is a much better families package focused on childcare, it’s a tax cut for small business … so I’m expecting just to get on with business and I’m confident I have the full support of the cabinet.”
Abbott said he did not know who the so-called dissidents were, but he encouraged them to speak to him directly about the concerns.
The prime minister cited the scrapping of the carbon and mining taxes and the negotiation of three free trade agreements as examples of his achievements, but said he was “focused on the future”, including budget repair.
“I am spending every ounce of energy, I am dedicating every fibre of my being to try to ensure that this country flourishes,” Abbott said.
In a TV interview on Thursday evening, Abbott said he trusted assurances from Turnbull and the deputy leader, Julie Bishop, that they were not campaigning for the top job.
“Yes, I do,” Abbott told Sky News.
Internally, Abbott’s supporters are no longer arguing that he will win the next election but that he needs to be given more time to try to turn around the government’s fortunes.
The trade minister, Andrew Robb, said on Thursday that Abbott had heard the message and warned detractors against moving an “amateur-hour” spill motion next week.
Stone, who represents Murray in Victoria and had a public dispute with the cabinet last year over support for SPC Ardmona, said the issue must be resolved promptly.
“If Tony gets through this then, right, we’ve got to get behind Tony,” she told Guardian Australia.
“If someone else does, right, that’s our leader and we get behind that person and we diminish the prospect of having Labor back in because that would be totally catastrophic.”
Stone declined to say which alternative leader she would support and, when asked whether she would consider moving the spill motion herself, said: “I think there’ll be a lot of conversations over the weekend about this.
“My key point is that we can’t let this go on. It’s destructive and we only have 18 months to the next election which is not long at all; we have only weeks to the New South Wales election. The people of Australia are sick to death of this introspection when there are very important, significant issues in constituencies like mine.”
