Katharine Murphy Deputy political editor

Wednesday 20 May 2015

While ‘Tony’s tradies’ message has been a hit, most voters believe last week’s budget was more about a political reset than about improving the economy

Two-thirds of the poll’s respondents thought last Tuesday’s budget will be good for small businesses, a highlight of Joe Hockey’s 2015 budget measures. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

A new survey of voters suggests the Abbott government hasn’t obtained much of a post-budget bounce, with half the Essential sample believing last week was more about a political reset than improving the economy.

The latest Essential poll, released on Tuesday afternoon, has produced a two-party preferred measure where federal Labor remains ahead on 52% to the Coalition’s 48% – a metric unchanged from last week, and broadly in line with post-budget surveys undertaken by Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL.

But the survey does deliver the government some positive news. Two-thirds of the poll’s respondents think last Tuesday’s budget will be good for small businesses, suggesting the prime minister’s “Tony’s tradies” message has cut through.

This time last year, disapproval of the government’s handling of its first budget stood at 52%. This year, that’s down to 33%.

Around one-third of respondents approved of the way the government handled this year’s budget – up 4% compared to the initial post-budget reaction last year.

But while fewer people disapproved than last year, more voters were undecided – 26% of the sample, up 12% from 2014.

A chunk of the survey, 45%, think last week’s budget is better than last year’s, while 15% think it is worse, and 31% thought the two economic statements were much the same.

Fifty per cent of respondents agreed with the statement that the budget was “more about improving the government’s popularity than improving the economy”; 47% agreed with the statement that the budget “favours businesses over workers,; 37% thought the budget didn’t do enough to reduce the deficit, while 18% disagreed with that statement.

Respondents were more likely to disagree with the statement that “this budget fixes the problems in last year’s budget”. Only 20% agreed, while 37% disagreed.

The sample was split over whether the budget is “fair and balanced” or is “the budget Australia needs at this time”.

The view of the sample about whether the economy is heading in the right direction has remained static since August.

Just over half the voters surveyed agreed that there is a budget “emergency” – but that’s down 5% since budget time last year.

Just under 20% agreed with the idea that there was a budget emergency, and the 2015 budget would help fix it – but 32% said there was an emergency but last week’s budget didn’t help, up 8% since May 2014.

Government insiders report the budget has been well received where it needs to be – in the all-important marginal seats.

The Ipsos poll, published by Fairfax Media this week, had the Coalition and Labor neck-and-neck on its two-party preferred measure – making it the slight outlier in all the post-budget polls produced thus far.

An analysis of aggregated polling data over the past 12 months indicates that the government has recorded incremental improvements in its standing since the leadership spill in February, but remains behind Labor.

New survey puts Abbott government's post-budget poll bounce in doubt | Australia news | The Guardian