Analysis by political editor Chris Uhlmann Tuesday 12 May 2015
Photo: Joe Hockey has swapped savings for salvation. (AAP: Sam Mooy)
There is a useful theological term that should be applied to Australia's increasingly polarised political class: scotosis, or intellectual blindness.
Because, across the divide, party members share a common trait.
They all apparently believe their own spin, no matter how much it jars with everyone else's reality.
As proof, take the second Abbott budget. It is utterly at odds with the first, and its apparent unifying principle is self-preservation.
Just a year ago the Government's primary goal was averting a fiscal "crisis" by making big savings and paying down debt.
This was the opening statement in the 2014-15 budget papers: "This budget is about asking all Australians — from households to businesses and the public sector — to make a contribution today to repair the budget and build a stronger, more prosperous future for all".
Treasurer Joe Hockey's speech echoed the theme, repeating the word "contribute" or "contribution" 18 times and declaring: "The days of borrow and spend must come to an end".
You didn't have to be a genius to work out that it would quickly hit rough water, because so much of how everyone would contribute came as a complete surprise.
This column noted that on budget night.
But, suffering a bad case of scotosis, the Government appeared genuinely shocked when the faithless pointed out awkward broken promises.
When, repeatedly, confronted by them, the rote response was "the most solemn promise we made at the last election was to fix the budget and strengthen the economy".
The Government will argue that its small business and workforce participation plans are aimed at strengthening the economy. But how is the solemn promise to fix the budget not now breached?
In delivering this new fiscal blueprint, the Government clearly believes that people will focus on everything it says from now on, rather than everything it said last year and for years before that.
Compared with last year's budget, the combined deficits rise by $55 billion from 2014 to 2018.
Budget cheat sheet: What you need to know
11 key questions you need answered to understand Treasurer Joe Hockey's second budget.
The path to surplus slows. In the space of a year, debt has climbed from a peak of 14.6 per cent of GPD in 2016-17 to 18 per cent.
That's $313 billion in net debt, with interest payments of $12 billion a year.
Spending this year will be 25.9 per cent of GDP, higher than in all but one of the Rudd-Gillard years.
Over the forward estimates it falls only marginally to 25.3 per cent.
The target last year was for it to fall quickly to 24.2 per cent before rising to the long-run spending average of 24.9 per cent.
Imagine what a Joe Hockey in Opposition would make of these numbers if they were delivered by Wayne Swan.
In fact it's scary how much of the character of the former Labor treasurer is being assumed by the incumbent.
The Coalition's theme now is "a credible path back to surplus", a line lifted from the Swan playbook.
The Treasurer notes he has lost $90 billion in tax revenue. That was something that also plagued Mr Swan.
But in those days Mr Hockey said Labor had a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
The measures proposed in this budget might be worthy, and they will be discussed at length elsewhere. But, at its heart, the second Abbott budget is aimed at fixing the political crisis created by the first.
Last year's budget was a breach of trust with the electorate. This one is about restoring faith and building confidence.
Then it was all about saving, now is all about salvation.
Budgeted revenue changes
The Government expects to raise $21 billion more in the next financial year compared to the current financial year.
See how revenue changes by
Full interactive: See where every dollar goes.
