Photo: What began as a dreary and trivial election campaign, characterised by petty point scoring, has suddenly been jolted into life with the injection of an X-factor called Peter Beattie. (News Online Brisbane)
If Peter Beattie's dramatic return to politics does deliver Labor the seat of Forde, it will give the party a very real chance of reforming and regrouping, writes Norman Abjorensen.
What began as a dreary and trivial election campaign, characterised by petty point-scoring, has suddenly been jolted into life with the injection of an X-factor called Peter Beattie.
Beattie, a proven election winner and something of a vote magnet in Queensland, will have an undoubted impact, although it might not carry all the way through to a Labor victory.
For starters, his candidacy offers real confidence that the ALP can wrest the marginal seat of Forde from the Coalition, with only a 1.6 per cent swing needed for a change. Given the profile and status of the man who, in the same way that Mike Hussey was dubbed Mr Cricket could be called Mr Queensland, his dramatic entry into the contest might even trigger a ripple effect through Queensland where Labor looked all but gone a few months ago.
Arguably the most readily identifiable face in Queensland, Beattie is certain to spearhead Labor's campaign there, perhaps even consigning fellow Queenslander Kevin Rudd into second place.
On the safe assumption that Beattie is worth a couple of per cent, all of a sudden the shaky marginals such as Moreton (1.1), Petrie (2.5), Lilley (3.2) Capricornia (3.7) and Blair (4.2) might just be retained.
If he can pick up Forde, as he should be able to, other Coalition-held marginal such as Brisbane (1.1), Longman (1.9) and Bonner (2.8) might realistically be on Labor's radar.
Beattie's vote-winning qualities are well documented. Coming into office at the head of a minority government in 1998, Beattie was powerfully affirmed by the electorate in 2001 with a ten per cent swing and an unprecedented 22 seat gain for Labor. His subsequent victories in 2004 and 2006, while not of the same magnitude, nevertheless stamped him as one of the most electorally successful political leaders of the modern era.
As a tactician, Beattie also has achieved distinction, being instrumental as ALP state secretary in reviving a moribund Labor Party in Queensland after the 1981 federal intervention and overseeing much of the successful campaign that returned Labor to office under Wayne Goss in 1989 after 32 years in the wilderness.
He was not afraid to criticise Goss for being out of touch – and was kept on the backbench for six years after his election to parliament in 1989.
So, we have here a high-profile figure entering the fray with the head start of recognition, a candidate with significant experience plus the political smarts, and renewed hope that Labor can not only avoid a bloodbath in Queensland but actually make some gains.
But there are longer term implications for the Labor Party should Peter Beattie get up in Forde, but with Labor still losing the election, as seems likely.
Back in the days when John Howard dominated the political landscape nationally, and the ALP tried a succession of leaders – Kim Beazley, Simon Crean, Mark Latham and then Beazley again – many Labor eyes looked to the north and contemplated the possibility of a Beattie translation from Brisbane to Canberra. But of course it never happened.
If Labor loses in September, will Kevin Rudd want to stay on as Opposition Leader, a post he last held in 2007 before he first became prime minister? Will the party even want him to stay on?
Speculation has long centred on Bill Shorten as the leader in waiting, but with Peter Beattie added to the available talent pool, there is a real alternative to Shorten, and short of winning the election in 2013, this might just be the next best thing for Labor.
The party is in poor shape. Not only has it been ripped apart by the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd turmoil, it has been reduced to a parliamentary rump in Queensland and little better in New South Wales, to say nothing of the quagmire of scandal and corruption that engulfed the party in that state.
Labor needs to rebuild, both organisationally and politically. Bill Shorten, for all his undoubted talents, represents much of what is wrong with contemporary Labor – the union block vote, shabby conspiracies, union office being used for personal political advancement and political careerism.
Shorten's shameless courting of the big end of town, most notably in his championing of the failed attempt to win ALP pre-selection for Peter McMullin, son of Spotless catering owner, Ian McMullin, in Corangamite in 2007, is a big part of the problem that afflicted NSW Labor.
Peter McMullin, after his tilt, showed his true colours by winning election as president of the Victorian Employers' Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Victoria's most powerful and influential employer group. This is about as far as you can get from the Labor heartland.
Beattie's ascension, assuming he wins Forde, gives Labor a very real chance of reforming and regrouping. Whether Beattie become leader or not, he will be in there with a big say, and it's a voice that Labor sorely needs inside the tent.
Dr Norman Abjorensen teaches public policy at the ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy. View his full profile here.
Can Beattie-mania get Labor over the line? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
