Lenore Taylor, political editor

theguardian.com, Thursday 22 August 2013

Exclusive: Guardian poll finds Rudd struggling to hold previously safe Queensland seat of Griffith

Kevin Rudd: cancelled local debate appearance. Photograph: Getty Images

Kevin Rudd is trailing Liberal rival Bill Glasson in his apparently safe Brisbane seat of Griffith, in alarming news for Labor from the latest Guardian Lonergan poll.

Glasson, who is running an intensive local grassroots campaign, leads Rudd on a two-party preferred basis by 52% to 48%. The poll's margin of error is 4%, but its findings raise the possibility that without a big effort on his home turf, Rudd could become the third prime minister in Australian history to lose his seat, behind John Howard in 2007 and Stanley Bruce in 1929.

It raises a dilemma for Labor strategists who need to salvage Labor's national campaign but also give Rudd time to campaign in his seat. Rudd was criticised for pulling out of a local candidates' debate in Brisbane on Thursday night because he was campaigning interstate.

"This shows Mr Rudd needs to be very conscious of what is happening in his own electorate. He needs to focus on the battle as well as the war," Lonergan research managing director Chris Lonergan said.

The poll of 958 Griffith voters, taken on Wednesday night as Rudd and Coalition leader Tony Abbott debated at the Broncos leagues club in Brisbane, found Rudd had 38% of the primary vote, down from the 44% he achieved in 2010, with Glasson on 47%. The Greens candidate was on 11%.
The poll asked voters how they had voted in 2010 and found that nearly a quarter (23%) who voted for Rudd in 2010 intended to vote for Glasson on 7 September. Of those who voted for the Liberal National party in 2010, 84% intended to do so again this time.

Swing in voting intention in the seat of Griffith Illustration: Lonergan

It found the return of the local candidate to the prime ministership had made little difference to how his own constituents intended to vote.

Among the respondents 29% said Rudd's return had made them more likely to vote Labor, 24% said it had made them less likely and 47% said it had made no difference.

The poll found the economy was by far the most important issue for voters in the electorate, nominated by 47%, with 56% saying they thought the Coalition was best to handle the economic decision-making, and only 39% preferring Labor.

Responses to the question: "Which one of the following will have the most impact on how you will vote in this Federal Election? Illustration: Lonergan

Of those polled, 27% said leadership was the most important issue, with 48% saying Abbott had positive campaign messages compared with 35% who said the same of Rudd.

There were 10% who said asylum was the most important issue, with 58% saying the Coalition was best to handle it and 32% preferring Labor.

Of those questioned 9% said education was the most important issue. Labor led on this issue, with 49% saying the ALP had a better policy and 44% preferring the Coalition.

Responses on various issues

Labor

Greens

LNP

Which party do you think would be the most effective at stopping asylum seekers from arriving in Australia by boat?
32%
11%
58%

Which party do you think would treat asylum seekers who arrive in Australia by boat in the most humane manner?
25%
40%
35%

Which party do you trust the most to manage Australia’s Economy?
39%
5%
56%

Which party do you think has the best education policy?
49%
8%
44%

Abbott has campaigned in Griffith, which Rudd holds with a margin of 8.5%, and made a point of bringing Glasson, an ophthalmologist and former head of the Australian Medical Association, to Wednesday night's debate. He referred to Glasson's outstanding qualities when asked about the standard of political candidates.

Rudd had been scheduled to debate Glasson at the Brisbane Powerhouse on Thursday night, but cancelled and was instead scheduled to appear on Channel 10's The Project. Labor senator Claire Moore will appear in his place.

Behind in the national polls, Labor has rebooted its campaign this week, launching negative ads about Abbott's yet-to-be-released policy costings and alleging the Coalition's spending cuts will fall on essential services such as health and education. Rudd was more aggressive and confident in Wednesday's debate, again concentrating on Abbott's "cuts".

Glasson, who was pre-selected in September last year, has an enthusiastic band of local supporters, who dub themselves the "Glasson Gladiators". Rudd has held the seat since 1998.

Kevin Rudd trails in his own seat in shock poll finding for Labor | World news | theguardian.com