By Melissa Clarke Posted Fri Aug 9, 2013

Photo: Tony Abbott's public appearances are limited and he rarely goes off script. (AAP: Alan Porritt)

Instead of trying to match Kevin Rudd for popularity, Tony Abbott remains staid. While he might not win the daily battles, he is looking to win the war, writes Melissa Clarke.

Three years of practice means Tony Abbott has his campaign routine down pat. One week into the official election campaign and it's clear he is sticking with the tried and true formula.

Whether pitted against Julia Gillard's governing or Kevin Rudd's campaigning, whether it is years out from an election or merely weeks, Tony Abbott's strategy is the same.

His public appearances are highly stage managed. They are almost always in environments where his team can control the circumstances. No rush of school kids or the chaos of walking through a shopping centre. Mostly, it's a friendly business, a local Liberal Party campaign launch, or a community roundtable that has been promoted through Liberal Party circles.

Abbott's words are just as carefully selected and delivered. Much has been made of his repetition of slogans, but it goes beyond that. The number of issues he is willing to do battle over is also limited.

The "No surprises" approach Abbott is taking means his campaign is not about launching a grand vision for the nation or announcing bold, new initiatives. In the opening week of formal battle, there has been only one major promise - a 1.5 per cent company tax cut, costing $5 billion over the forward estimates.

Even then, the promise had been made before. This announcement was to name a starting date and how much it would take from the budget bottom line. The remaining announcements in this first week of campaigning have either been made before (such as promising a judicial inquiry into the Government's trouble-plagued home insulation scheme) or small and localised (a $6.5 million jobs initiative for Tasmania).

The Coalition's election strategy is borne of two realities - Kevin Rudd's popularity and Tony Abbott's lack thereof.

The Liberals know they can't match Kevin Rudd on popularity. He has a legion of Twitter followers, and his cult-figure status among some school-aged kids and propensity to endear with selfies and out-dated idioms can't be equalled. Tony Abbott would be foolish to try - and he knows it.

The Opposition Leader's inner-circle has instead crafted an alternative strategy. His policy mantra of "no surprises" applies equally to the political approach. His team want him to appear measured and collected. Public appearances are limited, as is the time spent answering journalists questions. They want him to stick to the script of the economy, carbon tax and boats (but not in too much detail) and to never raise his voice or become agitated. As another member of Tony Abbott's inner-circle confided, "It's my job to keep him calm."

There have been a few moments during this first week where there have been glimpses of another Tony Abbott. As he rallied supporters of the Liberal candidate in Adelaide, Carmen Garcia, and in Bass, Andrew Nikolic, he dared to crack some jokes. At one point, he grinned as he waited for the crowd to quieten. "The longer Kevin Rudd lasts," he said, "the more nostalgic we get for Julia Gillard!"

Looking energised from the throng of party members, he dared to stray from the script. But not for long - and it's not likely to be evident to the cursory viewer.

Some in the Opposition Leader's inner-circle believe that if Tony Abbott can continue as he has for the past three years, they can win the election. They believe Kevin Rudd is trying to win the daily battle and that they will win the war.

It has been a highly successful strategy for Tony Abbott, Opposition Leader. In a few weeks, we will find out if it's successful for Tony Abbott, alternative prime minister.

Melissa Clarke covers federal politics for ABC News 24. View her full profile here.

Will slow and steady win the race? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)