Nick Efstathiadis

By ABC's Barrie Cassidy

In the event of an easy Coalition victory, the rubberneckers will have plenty to see. Photo: In the event of an easy Coalition victory, the rubberneckers will have plenty to see. (AAP: Alan Porritt)

Those among us with a morbid desire to witness political train wrecks will have been disappointed by this disciplined election campaign, but it won't be long before the lid blows, writes Barrie Cassidy.

Political journalists, well some of them, anyway, enjoy covering politics in much the same way as rubberneckers enjoy car crashes.

They might feign interest and concern, but it's really the tragedy of it all, the sheer carnage, that attracts them.

During election campaigns, when the leaders come under extraordinary scrutiny and personal pressure, that unhealthy pre-occupation with the problems of others is usually satisfied.

But not this time.

Those who expected Tony Abbott to screw up, to commit one faux pas after another, have been disappointed. He has so far run a disciplined, accident-free campaign.

And likewise, those who thought Kevin Rudd would blow up when all seemed lost are off the mark as well. That's partly because Rudd is running two races. Even if beating Abbott eludes him, he needs to win enough seats to reasonably argue that the leadership change was worthwhile. A final tally of seats in the 50s will bring that notion into doubt.

But those with an unsatisfied morbid curiosity of all things political need to exercise just a little patience. Satisfaction is not far away.

That's because in the event of the most likely outcome, a comfortable Coalition victory, there will be plenty to slow down and stare at on either side of politics in the months ahead.

Let's start with a defeated Labor Party.

Labor's internal hatreds have been percolating ever since the negotiated victory in 2010. After September 7, the lid will blow sky high.

So many players on one side have wanted to go to town on the initial Julia Gillard coup. They want to publicly argue, free of the constraints of office, that Labor's problems started with that event, and went downhill from there.

The other side wants to settle some scores over the sabotaging of Gillard's 2010 campaign, and the undermining that went on beyond that.

And they will target, in particular, Bill Shorten, who they see as the crucial pivot in the decision of the caucus to finally abandon Gillard.

It matters not that Gillard will be gone after the election, and perhaps Rudd as well. For the next few years at least, the party will nevertheless split between those always loyal to Gillard and those who ultimately backed Rudd.

Pretty little pitches


With Abbott you always get the same lines but with Rudd it's the luck of the draw, writes Annabel Crabb.

That divide will be just as bitter and probably more difficult to manage than the traditional left versus right battles of the past.

There will be challenges in government for Abbott as well.

For years, he has operated effectively as an opposition leader, creating a sense of chaos around the government, exploiting every policy and political error, while at the same time maintaining discipline in his own ranks.

But in government, he will have to reconcile the contradictions between established Liberal principles and the indulgences of some of his policies.

He will need to fund the big ticket Labor policies that he has embraced, such as the NDIS, education reform and the NBN, while keeping faith with his own promises. All the while, he'll be working towards a budget surplus to deal with what he has always said is a budget emergency.

On top of that, a Coalition government will set out to reduce greenhouse emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 with a problematic policy approach and limited spending.

And in that environment, Abbott will need to deal with a large and restless backbench, eager to prove they are more capable than the survivors of the Howard years.

In the event of an easy Coalition victory, the rubberneckers will have plenty to see on the Labor side in the first few months.

Beyond that Abbott will need to be just as effective in government as he has been in opposition. Otherwise it won't be long before the rubberneckers are gawking at him too.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders. View his full profile here.

This is the calm before the political storm - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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