Nick Efstathiadis

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Louis Nowra January, 2010

 

Tony Abbott. © MystifyMe/Flickr

A couple of days after Tony Abbott became leader of the Opposition, I found myself in an emergency ward waiting for an operation. It was a Saturday and, given that St Vincent’s is part of New South Wales’ increasingly stressed hospital system, the staff were doing the best they could after misplacing me in a storeroom for several hours. My surgery was postponed half a dozen times due to the backlog; on the second night I was operated on. I was lucky enough to get the final bed available in the whole hospital.

The two days I spent in emergency, I whiled away my time trying to block my ears to the cries of angry injured drunks and moaning victims, and listening to conversations from the other curtained-off beds. A nurse came in to tend to a fellow opposite my cubicle. A news item about Abbott must have been on the patient’s television because the nurse casually asked him what he thought of the new Opposition leader. “I live in his electorate,” he said, “but even though I don’t vote Liberal, I met him once and he took time out to talk to me. He’s also part of our local surf lifesaving club. He’s like a regular bloke.” He asked the nurse what she thought of him. “Oh, he’s into sport and I don’t like sport, but I saw a picture of him in his bathers the other day and he looks very fit,” she said admiringly.

St Vincent’s is in Malcolm Turnbull’s Wentworth electorate and I also live there. From the time Turnbull ran for Wentworth in 2004, I have heard him described, even by his supporters, as a narcissist, as an opportunist who is only in the Liberal Party for himself, and as his own worst enemy. This is why the conversation I overheard in the emergency ward made me realise that voters, far from thinking Abbott was merely the Mad Monk of caricature, were keeping an open mind about him. It made me think that there was a chance he could win the next election.

All I knew of Abbott when he entered Parliament in 1994 at the age of 36 was that he had been educated by Jesuits, had wanted to be a priest and had described himself as “a junkyard dog savaging the other side”. It was only in early 1998 that I began to take serious notice of him, and that was because of a statement he made in Parliament about Bob Santamaria, who had recently died. Abbott called him “a philosophical star by which you could always steer” and “the greatest living Australian”. I thought that Santamaria had lost all political relevance decades earlier and was astonished that anyone would honour a man who inspired so much hatred.

It became clear that Santamaria had been a crucial mentor for Abbott, ever since the early 1970s. As Michael Duffy remarks in his 2004 dual biography of Mark Latham and Tony Abbott, Santamaria’s effect on the latter was “immediate and profound”. A Catholic intellectual, Santamaria created an organisation known as ‘the Movement’. Using the idea of communist cadres, he had his followers infiltrate the unions to counteract their leftish ideology and to stop the spread of communism. He was president of the organisation from 1943 until 1957, when the Movement evolved into the National Civic Council. Even more insidious was his part in helping keep the Labor Party out of office throughout the 1950s and 1960s. He was a major influence in the formation of the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) – a breakaway group of the ALP. He hoped to siphon the Catholics from the ALP into the DLP, and attract the anti-communist vote.

There are people, like Abbott, who believe that Santamaria’s crusade against communism was a success. His major weapon was to create a climate of fear; he was constantly hectoring people with the idea that communists in Australia were buying up arsenals and guns in preparation for the revolution. Another tactic was to prophesy the end of civilisation as we know it. He likened Australia to the fifth century when the Roman Empire collapsed, and he viewed the Vietnam War as a crusade. Yet despite his anti-communism, he disliked capitalism, especially in its guise of economic rationalism. Santamaria’s ideal epoch was the Middle Ages and, as such, he wanted to turn us into a nation of farmers and cottage industries, with women permanently barefoot and pregnant. He vigorously opposed abortion and birth control. He blamed the Bloomsbury Set (Virginia Woolf and the like) for contemporary sexual decadence and the undermining of family values. As he became increasingly sidelined politically, his view of the world shrank to a hermetic and clammy chamber of religious and political certainties. Near the end of his 60-year career, he had doubts about liberal democracy, and in his wish to return to traditional Catholic values there was a touch of the theocratic Taliban about him.

One of the reasons Santamaria was so loathed by many Catholics was that, by politicising religion, families were often riven apart. With the formation of the DLP came intimidation: if you stayed a supporter of the ALP then you were not a true Catholic. What disturbed many Catholics was that the priests would order their congregations to vote DLP. (I remember my mother returning from Mass one morning furious with the priest for telling the St Mark’s congregation to vote for the DLP.) Santamaria also confirmed all the suspicions the rest of Australia had about Catholics – that they were secretive and merely paid lip service to the idea of the separation of Church and State.

Abbott has said that what impressed him about Santamaria was “the courage that kept him going as an advocate for unfashionable truths”. And indeed Santamaria was regarded as a has-been by the time young Abbott was attracted to him. The 1960s era of the young overturning traditional moral, social and sexual values arrived in Australia in the 1970s. Yet in 1972, at the age of 15, Abbott was drawn towards the DLP, despite the traditionalist party being in its death throes.

While I might have been puzzled by his attitude towards Santamaria, in 1998 he made me realise that I couldn’t take his politics for granted. At the time Pauline Hanson’s populist One Nation party, which had been formed in 1997, was beginning to gain considerable electoral ground through racist rhetoric, and its attacks on gun laws, multiculturalism and economic rationalism. Despite her racially inflammatory comments, John Howard did not criticise Hanson or her party. He seemed morally paralysed, as if he agreed with much of what she had to say but also didn’t want to attack her for fear of alienating conservative voters. It was Abbott who realised that One Nation was “a conservative’s cry of rage and fear” that made “non-Anglo Australians feel like strangers in their own country”. But there was a bigger problem in that Hanson had the potential to divide the conservative vote.

If Abbott had learned one thing from Santamaria’s undermining of the Labor Party and formation of the DLP, it was that such ideological splits were catastrophic for both parties. Without telling Howard, he launched a campaign against Hanson. Instead of ridiculing her like the media and the Labor Party did, he saw that the easiest way to destroy her influence was on technical grounds – her One Nation party was not validly registered for public funding. His actions were successful and he saw the campaign “as the most important thing I have done in politics”. It was this attack on One Nation that intrigued me: it seemed Abbott was driven by more complex and at times contradictory impulses than I had first thought.

Abbott had a simple, happy childhood. Even he recognises that he came from a well-off, middle-class family and had privileges denied to many others. He was born in England and at the age of three came to Australia, where he was brought up on Sydney’s North Shore. It was until recently a very Anglo enclave of spacious suburban houses, families and, in the Abbotts’ case, swimming pools.

His father was a dentist and his mother had a science degree. A former pilot who, much to his disappointment, never flew in the war, his father had wanted to be a priest and always impressed on his son that it was better to be a good man than a successful one. There were four siblings, with Abbott the only boy. He was spoiled and, as one sister later remarked, “Tony was always the star”. His mother thought so highly of him that she predicted he would become either pope or prime minister. With this sort of parental adoration it was no wonder that Abbott was a loud-mouthed, attention-seeking boy who saw himself as always being in the right. His parents were gregarious and liked parties. This trait has served their extrovert son well.

He was also studious and fond of books about great leaders and the glory of the British Empire, its Christian virtues and traditional institutions like Parliament. His first school was the Jesuits’ St Aloysius; his next school, St Ignatius, Riverview, on the lower North Shore, was also a Jesuit college. He was quickly attracted to the Jesuit fondness for intellectual argument – for observing issues from opposing sides. There was also a strongly athletic side to him and he did well in sports but, when he failed to play rugby for the school firsts, he could not conceive that it was because he wasn’t good enough – it must have been a conspiracy against him. This arrogance and sense of self-entitlement annoyed many of his peers.

He found a mentor at Riverview in Father Emmet Costello, the chaplain, a worldly Jesuit from a wealthy background who was fascinated by politics. He knew many of the important political players and Abbott often sought him out. Like Santamaria, Costello saw politics as a vocation, a way of giving glory to God in the human realm. Indeed, by the time he went to Sydney University, Abbott was convinced that he had a bright future, perhaps in politics.

His constant use of ‘mate’ or ‘fair dinkum’ made him seem more like a trade unionist than the usual Liberal supporter. His drinking, which would result in some minor acts of vandalism, and his ability at sport also seemed at odds with the stereotype of the socially cautious, nerdy young Liberal. He was never one to shy away from a stoush, and stated his opinions wherever he went. He gained a reputation for being a braggart, a blabbermouth and a larrikin. There were even rumours that he had been thrown out of a student house because of his propensity to walk around naked.

In his second year at university, he had a girlfriend, whom he loved – and yet their relationship was an on-again, off-again affair because Abbott was strongly drawn towards the idea of becoming a priest. When she fell pregnant, Abbott knew he was too immature to help raise the baby, and it was adopted. This decision was to haunt him for many decades. When he married, he told his wife, Margie, about it and, when they reached appropriate ages, his three daughters: Louise, Frances and Bridget.

As far as he was concerned it was more than a young man’s mistake. He had sinned, and he did not marry the mother of his child, which was an abject dereliction of moral duty. As for his dream of entering the priesthood – at this time he felt he wasn’t morally strong enough and was spiritually unworthy. His escape clause was when, through the influence of Father Costello, he won a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford University.

He arrived in a state of great excitement. Oxford, for Abbott, was the ultimate university. It was a bastion of tradition, educational achievement and the embodiment of all that was good about England. As he has often said, he is an “incorrigible Anglophile”. He flourished there, studying philosophy and politics, and immersing himself in the works of eighteenth-century conservative philosopher Edmund Burke.

Commentators have overlooked Burke’s influence on Abbott, as they’ve attempted to find religious underpinnings to his ideas. Yet Burke’s theories embedded themselves deeply in Abbott’s mind. He took especial note of Burke’s notion that “We fear God, we look up with awe to kings: with affection to parliaments; with duty to magistrates; with reverence to priests; and with respect to nobility”. He was also profoundly influenced by Burke’s idea that society is a “partnership” not only between those who are living, but “between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are to be born”. Even now, as leader of the Opposition, these two ideas guide Abbott in the way he sees not only the responsibilities of politicians but also the responsibilities people must have towards their own communities. His dislike of what he perceives as laziness, welfare dependency, anti-social behaviour and loose morals derives from the idea that citizens thereby break this vital partnership; he sees it as his duty to restore it.

While at Oxford, Abbott found another mentor in an American trainee Jesuit priest, Paul Mankowski, whom he calls the finest man he has ever met. Deeply religious and keeping to a vow of poverty, Mankowski wore the clothes of dead priests. He was intelligent and a boxer. He fully endorsed the idea that “a healthy body means a healthy mind”, which was not so much a strand of Irish Catholicism but its English and American forms. The notion of “muscular Christianity” was especially important for Catholics, who emphasised sexual chastity before marriage and celibacy in priests. Physical activity was a way of finding a physical outlet for sexual frustration.

Boxing is called the ultimate sport and no wonder. It is two men pitted against each other, with no protection other than their gloves and sometimes a helmet. It is a profound act of bravery to face an opponent who is out to hurt you and could possibly kill you. There is nowhere to hide, and any momentary act of perceived cowardice is magnified. Boxing is, however, more than just punching: one has to duck, weave, guard, counterattack, parry blows and, of course, conquer fear.

Whenever Abbott entered the ring he was, as he once said, “terrified. It’s one of those things you make yourself do.” In his first bout – against Cambridge in March 1982 – he knocked out his opponent within the opening minute, and his three other fights were equally successful. He had little technique but a brutal sense of attack, which he called “the whirling dervisher”.

When interviewed by the local press, it was obvious that Australian politics, and his role in it, wasn’t far from his mind. His third bout was decided before the end of round one and he bragged: “I just made believe that my opponent was Bob Hawke, the leader of Australian Labor Party.” His skill may have been limited but it didn’t matter; once the blood mist descended only the rules kept his savagery under control.

Upon returning to Australia, Abbott didn’t hide his pride at what he had achieved academically and in sport. When I was recovering at St Vincent’s, a surgeon who had gone to Riverview told me he vividly remembered Abbott giving a talk to the school after his Oxford sojourn. I asked what he was like. “Oh, he preened,” said the surgeon. “No sense of humility at all. He just preened about his achievements.” No doubt one of the reasons for this was to show off his Oxford Blue to the sports masters who had rejected him. This inability to be humble is a debilitating feature of his personality, as he frequently acknowledges.

Back in Australia Abbott made a decision that stunned his family. He wanted to become a priest. Although he went to Mass regularly, he never seemed so much a spiritual man as one whose faith was based on the traditional values of the Church. At the age of 26, he was much older than most of the men entering St Patrick’s seminary at Manly. No doubt Mankowski was a huge influence on the decision.

Yet instead of finding a form of Catholicism that featured social engagement, poverty and service to the community, he found himself surrounded by a strongly homosexual fraternity. A Catholic friend of mine who mixed with the St Patrick’s priests said, still with surprise in his voice, that they were “the most effeminate men I had ever seen. And this was when the Church unconditionally condemned homosexuality!” With this indulgent atmosphere came an emphasis on self-absorption. Abbott may have disliked homosexuality, but he agreed with Santamaria that “introspection is the first step towards insanity”. He was and is a man who likes being around other people and he’d sooner act than spend time contemplating his own navel. He regarded this aspect of Catholicism as solipsistic – and he also couldn’t hack celibacy. Like half of the young seminarians, he left before becoming a priest.

In March 1987, at the age of 29, he found himself without prospects and not a little envious of friends who were now making serious money. He began to write for the Bulletin and the Australian, his articles being a way for him to work out his political philosophy and to clear his thoughts on the issues of the day. His writing style became simple and muscular with a deft ability to throw colloquial words into the mix without sounding patronising.

He found a job as press secretary for John Hewson, the leader of the Opposition, but he was more attracted to John Howard, then shadow minister for industrial relations, employment and training. Their friendship continued throughout Howard’s time as prime minister, and Abbott continues to look up to him. But Howard was not very religious, and on spiritual matters Abbott turned to Cardinal Pell. Like all his mentors, from Santamaria onwards, he hero-worshipped him uncritically. To Abbott, Cardinal Pell is “one of the greatest churchmen that Australia has seen”.

Pell is the type of Catholic Abbott likes – someone who excelled at sports, is not introspective and takes a close interest in politics. He is a divisive man who was at the centre of a controversy over his maladroit dealings with victims of sexual abuse by priests. Pell is intelligent but no intellectual (like Howard, in this sense), which suits Abbott. Pell’s articles, however, have none of Abbott’s clarity; they are frequently full of platitudes and non sequiturs as he rails against the “aggressive paganism” of contemporary society. Vegetarianism makes him uneasy and he loathes the Greens because they can cause thousands of people to lose their jobs when they set out to save “turtles who breathe through their bottoms”. As for climate change claims, they are “a symptom of pagan emptiness”.

Pell acts as Abbott’s personal confessor. But Abbott is very touchy about his close friendship with him, no doubt because Pell pushes hard, like Santamaria did, for Catholic intervention in politics. A few years ago, at a conscience vote overturning a state ban on therapeutic cloning, Pell announced: “Catholic politicians who vote for this legislation must realise that their voting has consequences for their place in the life of the Church.” This was a thinly veiled threat of excommunication, running completely counter to secular values.

Abbott’s conservative politics, his instinct to defer to authority and tradition, and his English Catholicism – with its position as a bulwark of tradition rather than a spiritual force – have been the bedrock of his beliefs since he was young. All of his mentors have opinions that have polarised the public, and they are all people who act upon rather than internalise any problem. They are thoughtful but not great thinkers. Above all, they regard the traditional institutions of marriage, family and community based on the principles of Christianity as essential for social cohesion.

Abbott has often been criticised for bringing his religious convictions into the world of politics. And although he has strenuously denied this, he has also said that: “A minister of the crown is scarcely supposed to abandon his principles simply because he is a minister of the crown. You don’t become an ethical-free zone just because you are a minister.” The institution that has made him, the Catholic Church, has also shaped his principles, so that he finds it difficult to disentangle his religious convictions from his political agenda. Like all his mentors he loathes abortion, IVF, the morning-after pill and RU486. He sees abortion as a national tragedy, as he does no-fault divorce. He questioned whether Medicare should be funding 75,000 abortions a year and he tried to restrict RU486. He also opposes stem-cell research and gay marriage.

Throughout his life, Abbott has needed the Church and its teachings, sometimes to a desperate degree, because he realises that without it he would be morally and even psychologically lost. He knows he has personal demons to quell. Between his belfry-bat ears is a coil of such saturnine weirdness that no one, not even his closest friends, would want to unravel it. This makes him do things he comes to regret. His wife, Margie, knows this. In 2005 when she heard that John Brogden had resigned as NSW Opposition leader, after being found in his office with self-inflicted wounds, she told her husband, “Whatever happens, don’t you say anything about it.” The next day, Abbott, then health minister, joked about Brogden’s actions in relation to a change to a Liberal policy: “If we did that, we would be as dead as the former Liberal leader’s political prospects.” Abbott’s response to the subsequent outcry was, “Look, I’ve never claimed to be the world’s most sensitive person.”

And he is right. When dying asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton, suffering from terminal cancer, tried to deliver a petition to Abbott’s electorate office in Manly, Abbott, who wasn’t there, called Banton “gutless”, the event “a stunt” and remarked that “just because a person is sick doesn’t mean that he is necessarily pure at heart in all things”.

Rudd may use swear words to his staff and flight attendants but Abbott takes it into the public arena, one time snapping back “Bullshit” at Labor opponent Nicola Roxon, in response to her comment that he could have been on time for a nationally televised debate, and referring to Julia Gillard as having a “shit-eating grin”. He just can’t stop himself. His excitement and adrenaline get the better of him. He always offers a mea culpa and confesses his weakness, but that impulsiveness is hard for him to control. He is a naturally exuberant man. A photographer friend who has shot him several times remarked to me that Abbott had “an adolescent’s energy”. Journalists have called his obsessive cycling and gym-going “self-flagellation”, but it’s more subtle than that. The body is a source of energy that equals that of the will. If he can will his body to overcome its limitations, then he can train his mind to do the same thing.

Abbott also has many attractive characteristics. He does truly listen to people, as the patient in emergency remarked on; even Pro Choice’s NSW spokeswoman, Jane Caro, conceded: “On a personal level, I like Tony Abbott, having found him to be a respectful, intelligent, humorous and civil opponent whenever we debated the issues.” He’s a brave man. When he was at university he rescued a boy from drowning, and another time he helped rescue some children from a burning house. On neither occasion did he big-note himself. He is a lifesaver and he fights bushfires. He is honest in public about his failings and he is immensely loyal. When he discovered that he was not the father of the baby that was adopted, he was gracious in his disappointment and forgiving towards the woman who had wrongly identified him as the father. He forgives and forgets. He may act goofy around women occasionally, but he’s capable of self-mockery, as when he repeats one of his daughters’ descriptions of him as “a gay, lame churchie loser”. He also tries to be as straightforward and clear as possible, which will become a virtue given that his opponent, Kevin Rudd, seems like a hologram that hasn’t been taught proper English.

In December last year, when he became leader of the Opposition, Paul Howes, the national secretary of the Australian Workers’ Union, labelled him a zealot; MP Greg Combet called him an extremist; Robert Manne called him a troglodyte. But Abbott is much more complicated than those labels suggest. His defeat of the ETS prompted Julia Gillard to call him a denier, a particularly pernicious tag given that it alludes to the Holocaust. But Abbott did tap into a large group of Australians who didn’t understand the ETS and, because they didn’t and were scared of paying higher taxes and losing their jobs, were derided by their own government. He is astute and thoughtful enough to realise conservatives have to embrace the diversity of contemporary Australian society. He also knows that he cannot be seen as extreme, as he has been portrayed. He will try to get to the middle ground, at the same time taking the lower socio-economic groups with him. His idea of the Commonwealth taking over the funding of hospitals will appeal to many who have found themselves caught up in the hospital system, as I was. His Achilles heel will be economics, at which he has shown no expertise, and it is there that the Labor government will trounce him.

It remains, however, that his greatest weakness is himself. He is as complicated a man as Keating, and that’s a problem. Voters like their prime ministers to be simple and pragmatic, and with no personal agenda. Keating was lucky in that the baton was passed on to him while in government. If he had been in Opposition, in all likelihood he would not have been elected PM. Abbott’s continuing struggle since he was young has been to balance his conservatism with his impetuous actions. He has tried to remain true to his 15-year-old self in a time of fast-changing social mores and morals. The tension between his religious beliefs and his political life will remain challenging to navigate. He also has to fight his natural tendency to hero-worship in order to become his own man. Since he was young he has dreamt of himself becoming a hero. But if he did become prime minister, he would view it as an honour beyond himself. It would confirm his ideal that politics is the highest and noblest form of public service.

His great political flaw is like that of his boxing, when he defeated his opponents with his whirling dervish attacks on them. If his opponents had had better defence, they would have avoided his initial attacks, let him become exhausted and then picked him off, slowly and relentlessly. Abbott places everything on attack and as such leaves himself wide open to dying a death of a thousand cuts. In all likelihood his term as leader will end in either tears or farce. His value may lie in the way he defines the Liberals as a true conservative party.

Is it possible that he could win the next election? Stranger things have happened. Certainly he has more charm, humour and common appeal than Rudd, who seems merely a willy-willy of spin. But would Abbott make a good prime minister? In wartime he would be excellent because then issues are so clear-cut, but in our present society the tension between his traditional values, formulated by both Catholicism and thinkers like Burke, and society’s insatiable need for change would be a constantly tense balancing act for him.

But, whatever happens, his elevation to leader of the Opposition has given the voters a real choice between the two parties and 2010 should prove a fascinating, even tumultuous lead-up to the next election. Abbott has won the ETS battle for the moment. I hear the bell ringing for the start of round two.

Louis Nowra's picture

Louis Nowra

Louis Nowra is an author, screenwriter and playwright. His books include Ice and The Twelfth of Never, and he is co-winner of the 2009 NSW Premier’s Script Writing Award for First Australians.

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Published in The Monthly, February 2010, No. 53
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Nick Efstathiadis

By Paul Karp

Locals help asylum seekers who survived the boat capsizing off the coast of Indonesia. Photo: Locals help asylum seekers who survived the boat capsizing off the coast of Indonesia. (AFP)

As the Federal Government has learned, if it chooses not to speak about asylum seekers, plenty of others will step in to fill the void, writes Paul Karp.

The deaths of 31 asylum seekers at sea are an unspeakable tragedy which should cause Australians to reject cruel policies which are evidently still incapable of deterring the perilous journeys.

The tragedy and the response to it also shows why attempts to slow the 24-hour news cycle in general - and hide the failure of asylum seeker policy in particular - are doomed to failure.

Government attempts to reduce media scrutiny on boat arrivals had already got off to a poor start. First, it shifted from a policy of total blackout on the issue to weekly briefings by Scott Morrison. The early signs were that the media would still get the information in a timely and accurate manner, thanks to journalists and citizens on Christmas Island like local councillor Gordon Thomson, who is tweeting news of boat arrivals.

The second crack in the plan was demonstrated by the tragedy of a boat sinking off Java on Friday, with 24 asylum seekers perishing at sea, a toll which may rise to 50 or more. With the Government initially refusing to comment, all the Australian public had to go off was the claim that asylum seekers had been abandoned. Survivors from the tragedy said the rescue effort took 26 hours despite them giving Australian authorities GPS coordinates and being promised help in just two hours. Despite the preference for weekly briefings, Scott Morrison was forced to give two briefings in the space of two days to deny the claims.

The wisdom of not announcing the boats is debatable, although we should be deeply suspicious of any such limitation of information in a free society. Most people saw it as a disgusting ploy to escape accountability, to con Australians into believing that an irresponsible election promise had been fulfilled, not by stopping the boats but by hiding them. Some believed that while that may have been the intention of the policy, it may yet have a silver lining if it made the Australian public less fearful of boat arrivals. It might have proved galling to reward the party which has done the most to whip up fear on the issue, but if the Coalition stopped feeding the beast, we might have found our way to a more humane policy.

But the events of the past week show that radio silence is not an option. What it shows is that if the Government says nothing, someone else will fill the vacuum. This week it was the victims of Australia's asylum seeker policy, who the Government said were in Indonesia's search and rescue zone - as if any human beings are ever outside our jurisdiction when we have the capacity to protect them.

But in the coming years on this and other issues, people will be lining up to fill the vacuum: the Labor opposition (especially when they have a new leader); disgruntled backbenchers, enigmatic Nationals or former Coalition parliamentarians; and sectional interests or lobby groups, whether they be unions, rent-seeking corporations, or disadvantaged groups.

The Government is naive to think it can change the fundamentals of the 24-hour news cycle. Just because it promises to be a government of "no surprises" that will "only make announcements when it has something to say" does nothing to change the fact that column inches will have to be filled. Tony Abbott may try and cultivate a reputation like that which Barry O'Farrell appears to enjoy as a "do-nothing" (and impliedly, therefore, do-no-harm) premier. But as social and economic problems emerge and develop, inaction and failure to communicate will be criticised just as heavily as any particular policy response.

The Howard government promised to decide "who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come". The results of that mindset are there for all to see this week. The Abbott Government goes one step further - to determine what we know about who comes to this country, and therefore the circumstances in which we can talk about it.

The Australian people and the media will not be controlled in this way, and will continue to hold the Government to account. They will be forced to break their silence eventually, as Morrison was this week.

The sooner the Government focuses on real solutions to the tragedy of deaths at sea and other public policy problems, the sooner they will have a good-news story to tell. But not this week. The Abbott Government starts with the ignominious record of being both a do-nothing and say-nothing government.

Paul Karp is a freelance journalist with interests in Australian politics and social policy. View his full profile here.

Asylum seeker problem won't quietly go away - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Nick Efstathiadis

By Mungo MacCallum

Julie Bishop meets Marty Natalegawa Photo: Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop meets her Indonesian counterpart Marty Natalegawa in New York. (ABC News)

Tony Abbott may have control over his ministers, but his control extends only to his own domain, as the Indonesians were at pains to warn him last week, writes Mungo MacCallum.

Tony Abbott promised us a grown up government.

But apparently what he meant was that he would be the only adult in it. His ministers are to be treated as children - worse than children, in fact, because while children should be seen but not heard, Abbott's team cannot even be seen in public without permission from the top.

Before they emerge they must gain a leave pass from his office, where his chief enforcer, Peta Credlin, in her new found role as Nurse Ratched, will vet their applications, check that they have washed their ears and have a clean handkerchief before allowing them out.

And even then they really shouldn't open their mouths except to paraphrase Abbott's message. Why, even his favourite choir boy, little Christopher Pyne, got it wrong this week with his talk about killing off university student unions - he was absolutely sure that was what Mr Abbott wanted him to do, but he was sent straight to the naughty corner for suggesting it prematurely. The other kiddies have apparently got the message; the airwaves have been freakishly Liberal-free ever since.

But Abbott's control extends only to his own domain, as the Indonesians were at pains to warn him last week. The newly minted Foreign Minister Julie Bishop met her counterpart, Marty Natalegawa, in New York for what she described as cordial, friendly and constructive talks, as a forerunner to Abbott's visit to Jakarta. But alas, her (or rather, of course, Abbott's) message was not greeted with the servility demanded at home.

Natalegawa commented (cordially, amicably and constructively): "Unilateral action [by which he meant turning the boats back, sending gents Indonesia to buy boats or solicit information about them] would risk the tight cooperation and trust that has been bounded in the Bali process and should be avoided."

And obviously exasperated by Abbott's continued refusal to acknowledge, much less accept, their repeated objections to a number of aspects of his Stop-The-Boats ranting, the Indonesians took the unusual step of releasing their record of the conversation to the media.

This, of course, was exactly what Abbott didn't want; he was still hoping that sooner or later the problem would go away, and if it didn't perhaps it could be sorted out in private; Bishop had already told Natalegawa that Australia would prefer to manage the issue "behind the scenes" and Abbott had deplored "megaphone diplomacy."

The point having been well and truly made, Jakarta declared that the record had been released by mistake - not an apology and certainly not a withdrawal. Abbott blustered that he would never even dream of infringing on Indonesian sovereignty - heavens to betsy no, it was absolutely the last thing in his mind.

But then Alexander Downer, materialised on the ABC's Drum program, - eschewed by Abbott and all his ministers - to put in the biff on Australia's behalf: "Let me make this point for Mr Natalegawa's benefit: Indonesian flagged boats with Indonesian crews are breaking our laws by bringing people into our territorial waters. This is a breach of our sovereignty and the Indonesians need to understand that instead of a lot of pious rhetoric about the Australian government breaching their sovereignty." And, picking up his megaphone, he retreated back into well-merited obscurity.

Natalegawa no doubt noted that there is a considerable difference between unauthorised incursions by people smugglers and an official policy which orders a country's armed forces to encroach national boundaries, but for the moment at least held his peace; perhaps he was leaving it to his president, Bambang Susilo Yudhoyono, to explain the distinction to Abbott during this week's visit. But Abbott is still playing down the issue; it is, he insists at worst a 'passing irritant'.

Hang on a minute: a passing irritant? A month ago the boats were a national emergency, a threat to our sovereignty, to our freeway traffic, to our very way of life. Their continued arrival constituted the greatest policy failure since, well, at least since the pink batts. Stopping them was a key policy of the new government and not effort would be spared. The nation would go on a war footing, the campaign was to be run as a military operation, with all the propaganda, secrecy and misinformation that our armed forces could command.

And now, suddenly, they are just a minor irritant, a distraction from the main purpose of Abbott's visit, to be glossed over and sidelined so that the leaders can talk about what's most important to both of them: money, or at least trade and investment. Of all Abbott's miraculous transformations from opposition attack dog to considered, moderate leader in government his is surely the most confusing, the least convincing.

And of course it won't work: having spent three years conditioning the public and media about the unparalleled, unmitigated horror of the asylum seekers, he will not be allowed to brush them aside, or pretend they no longer matter by hiding all information about them. The latter policy has already proved futile: the leaks from private and, one suspects, government sources have proved so prolific that Scott Morrison's next briefing session has already been rendered superfluous.

About the best Abbott can hope for is that the slowdown in arrivals that has been underway since Yudhoyono and Kevin Rudd put the Bali process in place -- the process which Indonesia still regards as the basis for all future negotiations on the issue - continues to the point where the boats cease to be a political problem and Abbott can quietly abandon the policies which Indonesia finds unacceptable. In the meantime, he will have to hope that Yudhoyono proves more understanding than his foreign minister, or at least more discreet.

Still more importantly, he will have to pray that the public and the media react to his policies of concealment, silence and obfuscation with the same acquiescence he expects from his ministers. For the moment at least, he is determined to press ahead with the mushroom policy: keep them in the dark and feed them bullshit.

Mungo Wentworth MacCallum is a political journalist and commentator. View his full profile here.

Stopping the boats is not going to plan - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Nick Efstathiadis

Sun 29 Sep 2013

Barnaby Joyce and George Brandis Photo: Barnaby Joyce and George Brandis are at the centre of the Fairfax report. (AAP)

Coalition frontbenchers George Brandis and Barnaby Joyce have denied any wrongdoing after reports they used taxpayer funds to attend a wedding.

Fairfax Media says the men claimed over $3,000 in travel expenses to attend the wedding of radio presenter Michael Smith in 2011.

Senator Brandis has confirmed he claimed nearly $1,700 on flights, accommodation and a hire car, but says he attended the wedding primarily for work purposes.

He told Fairfax that he used the wedding as an opportunity to collaborate with Smith over his work covering the Health Services Union scandal involving former MP Craig Thomson.

Senator Brandis today wrote a letter to the Department of Finance with a cheque for the costs, saying he would pay them to "resolve any uncertainty" about the issue.

"It is clear that the relevant criterion is the purpose of the travel, not the nature of the event. However, I accept that there can be uncertainty about the circumstances in which attendance at a private function for work-related purposes is within the entitlement," he said.

Fairfax newspapers reported that the cost of flights, hire cars and incidental expenses were among travel expenses lodged with the Department of Finance.

Mr Joyce rejected the Fairfax report, saying he may have used a Commonwealth car on the day, but that he did not claim flights or accommodation.

"The only thing I can see in this, and it was two years ago, was the use of a COMCAR on the same day as the wedding," Mr Joyce said.

"I will now dig back and do what I can to find out about that and if there's some ambiguity I'll pay it back, but the idea I claimed thousands of dollars is just wrong."

Shorten calls for investigation

Federal MP Bill Shorten told ABC's Insiders program there should be an investigation into the politicians' use of taxpayer funds.

"It is not normal to say that the reason why you get the taxpayer to support you to go to a wedding is so that you can network with journalists," he said.

"There may be an explanation. I don't know all the facts, but should there be an explanation? Yes."

Meanwhile, Smith defended the actions of the politicians on his website and said he and his wife paid for the politicians' limousine to the wedding.

He says any expense claims were justified because both men engaged with journalists at the wedding and their attendance at the celebration "did not demur in any way from their paid elected role as prominent federal parliamentarians".

Smith asked of Fairfax: "Is it your interpretation of the [guidelines] that where an expense is incurred in speaking with local media that cost should be personally borne by the member?"

According to the federal Department of Finance and Deregulation's entitlements handbook, expenses for official business such as "meetings of a government advisory committee or taskforce" or "functions representing a minister of presiding officer" are allowed for.

Meetings with journalists and other members of the media are not sanctioned under the handbook's guidelines.

George Brandis and Barnaby Joyce deny wrongdoing over travel expenses claims - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Nick Efstathiadis
Kenneth Davidson

Kenneth Davidson Senior columnist at The Age

September 30, 2013

The latest climate change report is the most scrutinised document in the history of science, according to one expert who helped write it.

As Tony Abbott said ad nauseam during the campaign, the 2013 federal election was about three things: the onerous level of public debt, stopping the boats and abolition of the carbon tax.

Compared to Britain, and indeed most European countries, Australia has a climate denial government.

Ignored until after the election was the question of whether the moderate level of debt was a major factor in Australia avoiding the recessionary consequences of the global financial crisis. Then the new government (and its media apologists) segued effortlessly and without explanation into arguing that the deficit wasn't a life-and-death issue after all. In fact, the budget couldn't be brought back quickly into balance without risking undermining the still soft recovery.

'As Prime Minister, Abbott has demonstrated his contempt for climate science by an immediate wholesale assault on the climate change infrastructure left by the previous government.'

'As Prime Minister, Abbott has demonstrated his contempt for climate science by an immediate wholesale assault on the climate change infrastructure left by the previous government.' Photo: Nic Walker

All the information needed to make that judgment was publicly available by the beginning of 2013. But to recognise the economic reality would have involved a different election narrative: that there was room for expansionary budgetary policies. There was no debt crisis. But the truth didn't fit the narrative that Abbott constructed to win the election: that the Labor government was incompetent and illegitimate.

On the matter of stop the boats, it is important to remember that one area where political leadership counts in Australia is how issues involving race are framed. This was shown by the leadership shown by Malcolm Fraser and Gough Whitlam in response to the first wave of boat people after the Allied defeat in the Vietnam war. Their leadership has proved to be of long-term advantage to Australia.

By contrast, the latent xenophobic fear and resentment of the latest wave of boat people - fanned by both major parties during the 2013 election - will have long-term costs in terms of social solidarity, national self-respect and economic opportunities forgone, as well as damaging relations with Indonesia.

But this election campaign entered darker territory. On my reading of history, this was the first post-enlightenment election in which a core policy was based on denial of fundamental laws of science.

Edward Davey, the British Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, is quoted in Pushing our Luck - Ideas for Australian Progress, published by the Centre for Policy Development, as saying: ''Two hundred years of good science - teasing out uncertainties, considering risk - has laid the foundation for what we now understand. It screams out from decade upon decade of research. The basic physics of climate change is irrefutable [and] human activity is significantly contributing to the warming of our planet.''

The Centre for Policy Development notes there is bipartisan agreement between Britain's Conservative-led coalition government and the Labour opposition that global warming is both a serious challenge (Britain is committed to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, from 1990 levels, of 34 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050) and a major economic opportunity. (Prime Minister David Cameron said this year that: ''It is the countries that prioritise green energy that will secure the biggest share of the jobs and growth in a low carbon sector set to be worth $4 trillion by 2015.'')

In contrast, Abbott went into the 2013 Australian election falsely implying that living standards were falling and that a major component in rising electricity prices was the carbon tax. He said the effect of policy action on climate change was ''to put at risk our manufacturing industry, to penalise struggling families, to make a tough situation worse for millions of families around Australia''.

By comparison to Britain, and indeed most European countries, Australia has a climate denial government. Abbott is on the record as saying ''the science isn't settled'', the world is ''cooling'', and ''whether the carbon dioxide is quite the environmental villain that some people make it out to be is not yet proven''.

As Prime Minister, Abbott has demonstrated his contempt for climate science by an immediate wholesale assault on the climate change infrastructure left by the previous government - closing the Climate Commission, instructing the Environment Department to prepare legislation to scrap the Climate Change Authority (which was independently responsible for allocating $2 billion a year for programs designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions), and sacking two department heads who had been involved in development of the emissions trading scheme.

Worse, Abbott has appointed the former head of the ABC and the Australian Stock Exchange, Maurice Newman, as chairman of the government's Business Advisory Council. Newman recently complained (in The Australian Financial Review on September 17) about the former government's cavalier attitude to the carbon tax ''and related climate myths''. He went on to say: ''The money spent on agencies and subsidies pursuing these myths was wasted. Their legacy continues to undermine Australia's international competitiveness.''

Rubbish. Action by the previous government to impose a price on carbon was a small step to improve Australia's long-term viability as a wealthy country. Dismantling these measures is a futile defence of early 20th-century industrial capitalism.

Australia cannot make the transition to a low-carbon, post-industrial state when we have a governing elite that is hostile to established science and therefore prepared to back Abbott's ideological obsessions.

As David Spratt, the co-author of Climate Code Red - the case for emergency action, has pointed out, Abbott successfully used the politics of fear to win the 2013 election. ''The challenge for the opposition is to construct a narrative that recognises this apprehension and fear and provides a clear path to climate safety so that Howard's battlers become safe climate champions,'' Spratt says.

It's a difficult but essential task.

Kenneth Davidson is a senior columnist for The Age.

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Nick Efstathiadis

Oliver Laughland theguardian.com, Friday 27 September 2013

Prime minister says the issue is a 'passing irritant' that he hopes will not complicate the two countries' strong relationship

Tony Abbott

Tony Abbott will visit Indonesia next week, his first foreign trip as prime minister. Photograph: Penny Bradfield/AP

Tony Abbott has played down the ongoing diplomatic turbulence between Indonesia and Australia over asylum seeker policy, describing the issue as a "passing irritant" in an otherwise "strong relationship".

Speaking before his visit to Indonesia next week, his first foreign mission as prime minister, Abbott said he hoped relations between the two states would not be "defined by this boats issue".

"That's one of the many reasons it is so important to stop the boats, because I don't want what is in so many respects our most important relationship to be needlessly complicated by this," Abbott told Fairfax radio on Monday.
The comments follow a week of diplomatic wrangling, which saw the Indonesian foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa, apparently take the forthright move of releasing details of a meeting between himself and his Australian counterpart, Julie Bishop, held at the UN headquarters in New York.

Natalegawa described elements of the Coalition's hardline Operation Sovereign Borders as "unilateral" and "worrying".

The plans, which include turning boats back and offering cash to Indonesians who offer information on people smugglers, "risk the close co-operation and trust that has been gained under the framework of the Bali process, and with that should be avoided", Natalegawa appeared to say in a statement.

But when Guardian Australia contacted the Indonesian ministry for foreign affairs it said the statement was not "an official press statement" and that it was unaware of how it had found its way into the public domain.

On Friday, Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior adviser to Indonesian vice-president Boediono, said if the boat turnaround policy was enacted it risked provoking a naval confrontation between the two countries.

Anwar told ABC radio: "I think it [boat turnaround] would create unnecessary conflict because I can just imagine that the Indonesian navy would not take kindly to that.

"So let's not be hypothetical about it. Any act by a foreign navy that infringes on a neighbouring country's territorial waters could cause incidents at sea and clearly that is not in the spirit of the framework of the treaty of co-operation that Indonesia and Australia have already signed."

Anwar added that she believed the issue of asylum was a "regional problem", echoing comments made earlier in the month by an Indonesian MP and member of the foreign affairs commission, Tantowi Yahya.

Abbott said on Friday that the Coalition would "do strong and sensible things that build on the strong relationship we already have with Indonesia".
He continued: "The key change since the swearing in is now anyone who gets here illegally by boat is out of the country to Nauru or Manus within 48 hours, and they're never coming back."

The 48-hour turnaround target has drawn criticism from medical groups, which say vital medical assessments of asylum seekers are unlikely to be adequately completed in that timeframe.

Speaking on Friday, the Royal Australasian College of Physicians president elect, Professor Nicholas Talley, also condemned the government's apparent decision to transfer unaccompanied minor children for offshore processing.

"We are especially concerned for unaccompanied minors but also children more broadly, as they are particularly vulnerable to the effects of detention and a lack of transparency is not conducive to protecting their health," Talley said.

Abbott and the Indonesian president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, will hold bilateral talks next week.

Tony Abbott plays down diplomatic row with Indonesia over asylum seekers | World news | theguardian.com

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Nick Efstathiadis

 

Acting Labor leader Chris Bowen says the Coalition must "come out of hiding" to address former foreign minister Alexander Downer's blunt rebuke of Indonesia's stance on asylum seekers.

Mr Downer directly addressed Indonesia's foreign minister Marty Natalegawa on ABC television last night, saying Indonesian crews are breaching Australian sovereignty and he should not be "taking shots" at the Coalition.

The comments came after Dr Natalegawa made the rare move of releasing the details of a private meeting he had with Foreign Minister Julie Bishop in New York.

The release said the foreign ministers discussed the Coalition's plans to turn back asylum boats, and also noted that Australia wanted to work on the issue "behind the scenes" and "quietly".

Diplomatic row brewing


Alexander Downer's rejection of Marty Natalagawa's comments is significant because he was a minister in the former Coalition government, writes Asia editor Catherine McGrath.

It also warned Australia's plans to turn back asylum seeker boats could jeopardise trust and cooperation between the two countries.

The unusual move to release the statement is further evidence the Indonesian government, who says it will reject the Coalition's Operation Sovereign Borders policy, is unhappy with the Government.

Mr Downer called on Indonesia to stop what he labelled "pious rhetoric" and rejected the claim that turning back boats may infringe on their sovereignty.

He told The Drum that Indonesia has a heavy responsibility to bear in helping Australia deal with asylum seekers.

"Let me make this point for Mr Natalegawa's benefit: Indonesian-flagged boats with Indonesian crews are breaking our laws bringing people into our territorial waters," he said.

"This is a breach of our sovereignty and the Indonesians need to understand that, instead of a lot of pious rhetoric about the Australian Government breaching their sovereignty."

Turning back boats will create conflict, Indonesian adviser says

Mr Downer's comments come as a senior Indonesian government advisor warned that turning back boats would create conflict between Australia and Indonesia.

Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior advisor to the Indonesia's vice-president, says an incident could be provoked if the Australian Navy turned a boat back to Indonesia.

"I think it will create unnecessary conflict," she told RN Breakfast.

"I can just imagine the Indonesian navy will not take kindly to that, so let's not be hypothetical about it.

"Any act by a foreign navy that infringes on a neighbouring country's territorial waters, as you know, could cause incidents at sea.

"Clearly, that is not in the spirit of the framework of strategic cooperation that Australia and Indonesia have already signed."

Prime Minister Tony Abbott will due to travel to Indonesia next Monday for talks with the Indonesian government.

Mr Bowen told Lateline that Mr Downer's comments may be seen as reflecting the Coalition's stance, and the Government must either endorse or repudiate them.

"This matches the rhetoric we heard from then leader of the opposition Abbott when he says these are Indonesian-flagged vessels disgorging people in Australian waters," he said.

"It's simply not good enough now for the Prime Minister and Minister Bishop and Minister [Scott] Morrison to remain in hiding about this issue."

Natalegawa trying to make message 'crystal clear'

Mr Bowen says Dr Natalegawa's decision to release details of his meeting with Ms Bishop is a sign he is not pleased with the Coalition.

Is turning boats back illegal?

ABC Fact Check examines whether international law allows the Coalition Government to turn back asylum seeker boats.

 

"I can only assume that he is saying that he needs to make it crystal clear, given that he feels the message is not getting through to the Australian Government, about how strongly the Indonesian government feels about this," he said.

"And he's not impressed by the characterisation of this being a minor issue which could be worked through.

"This is not an irritant to the Indonesian government; this is a clear matter of principle for them."

Mr Morrison is currently in Papua New Guinea ahead of a visit to the asylum seeker processing centre on Manus Island.

Meanwhile, 70 asylum seekers have been rescued by an Australian Navy ship off the Indonesian island of Java.

An official with Indonesia's search and rescue agency says the boat got into trouble 40 nautical miles out to sea.

Those onboard will be brought back to Indonesia, where they will be dealt with by Immigration Authorities and the International Organisation for Migration.

More on this story:

Chris Bowen says Coalition must address Alexander Downer's comments on Indonesia's asylum seeker stance - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Nick Efstathiadis

 Luke Mansillo

Luke Mansillo theguardian.com, Thursday 26 September 2013

The Abbott opposition repeatedly claimed there would be no changes to higher education; the government is now considering reintroducing a cap on university places. Australians should be appalled

SCENE WITH TROJAN HORSE Film 'TROY' (2004) Directed By WOLFGANG PETERSEN 12 May 2004 CTR59963 Allstar/Cinetext/WARNER BROS **WARNING** This photograph can only be reproduced by publications in conjunction with the promotion of the above film. For Editorial Use Only Entertainment Orientation Landscape Group Shot Film Still Horse Dancing 'Just as the Greeks gave the city of Troy a wooden horse as a gift, the Opposition claimed repeatedly there would be no changes to higher education'. Photograph: Allstar/Cinetext/Warner

The gates of mercy have been all shut up on Australian students. The tory Trojan horse has opened.

Just as the Greeks gave the city of Troy a wooden horse as a gift, the Abbott Opposition claimed repeatedly there would be no changes to higher education. Australians accepted this as a gift, and on that proviso elected the Coalition.

Night time fell; the Greeks came out of the horse and butchered the city of Troy. Abbott won, and now ignobly reveals his true intentions: leaving higher education in waste and desolation, maiming Australian students in the process.

It’s not as if we did not have a clue: in August 2012, a remarkably similar policy was leaked from the Coalition’s “policy development” discussions. This included the cap on university places – an unbearable idea for everyone caring about equity and ending entrenched access to education.

The Coalition cites the quality of degrees as the rationale for capping places. But if they were serious about the quality of undergraduate degrees, they would end the corporatised model of the university. There is no question that education quality is declining, but that decline is a result of the federal government's cuts. Tutorial sizes have doubled in the last 22 years. When the Liberals came to power in 1996 the student to teacher ratio in universities was 15 to 1, when the Liberals left government it was 21 to 1.

The cuts to education are not to preserve the quality of education; Christopher Pyne’s statements saying that any loss of quality would “poison” the sector's international reputation and that “quality is our watchword” is mere rhetorical guff. The Liberals' history of inflicting wounds on higher education speaks volumes on their commitment to maintain standards. If you are under any doubt, watch the documentary Facing the Music detailing the collapse in education standards at the University of Sydney’s School of Music after Howard decided to be the universities’ vivisectionist.

It is pure and simple: the less government money, the lower the quality of higher education. When students use private money through HECS debts they are buying a commodity; something universities in their present economic relationship with students are not inclined to withhold. If the Coalition were serious about improving standards, they would give universities appropriate public monies to support their staff, regardless of how many students they fail.

It was Abbott himself who said the Coalition needed to “purposefully, calmly and methodically” deliver on their election promises now that the Coalition has “won the trust of the Australian people.” The Coalition denied there would be a cap on university places in 2012; blatantly lied to the public on ABC’s 730: “We have no plans to restore the cap. We do believe that the more students who are doing university, the better”. Their Real Solutions manifesto stated: “we will strengthen higher education and encourage Australian of all ages to further their education.” Those newly announced plans prove otherwise.

Abbott accused Julia Gillard of being a liar by endlessly squawking her “there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead” quote, conveniently cutting off her repeated statements about carbon pricing. Funny, then, that the Coalition repeatedly lied to the Australian public , leading us to this Trojan horse surprise.

Australia should be bubbling with rage.

University reforms: Australia should be bubbling with rage | Luke Mansillo | Comment is free | theguardian.com

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Nick Efstathiadis

Lenore Taylor, political editor theguardian.com,

Wednesday 25 September 2013

New Senate likely to wave through carbon tax repeal but minor parties are sceptical of the Coalition's Direct Action plan

Tony Abbott

Tony Abbott may be forced to make major policy concessions to win support for Direct Action. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

Australia could be left without any policy to combat climate change with a new Senate likely to wave through the repeal of Labor's carbon tax but sceptical of the Coalition government's alternative $3.2bn Direct Action plan unless Tony Abbott makes major policy concessions.

Labor and the Greens remain determined to block the carbon tax repeal in the existing Senate, which sits until next July, but after that the Coalition appears likely to get the necessary six of eight independent and minor-party votes that will hold the balance of power in the new Senate.

But winning the necessary six votes in favour of Direct Action – which offers competitive government grants to reduce greenhouse emissions – could be much more difficult.

The Liberal Democratic party's David Leyonhjelm, set to win a Senate seat in NSW, told Guardian Australia he was "agnostic" about the science of global warming but "even if it is eventually confirmed government spending in Australia will not make the slightest bit of difference".

He said he would be voting for the carbon tax repeal and against Direct Action "unless the government offers some very significant concession that will make a big difference to the economy, for example lowering the company tax rate from 30% to 25%, or making a big reduction in the personal income tax rate, or possibly abandoning the alcopops tax and both of the last two increases in tobacco tax."

The government has already delayed a return to a budget surplus and any of the LDP's tax propositions would blow a large hole in government revenue.

Family First's Bob Day, set to take a seat in South Australia, said his party did not accept the science of global warming and would vote for the repeal and against Direct Action.

CClive Palmer, whose Palmer United party candidate in Tasmania, Jacqui Lambie, has been confirmed as the party's second senator – the party may win a third spot in Western Australia – said his senators would vote for the repeal but his party "needed more information" on Direct Action.

But the mining magnate, who is waiting for federal government environmental approval for his $8bn coalmine, rail and port project in Queensland's Galilee basin, added: "The evidence shows 97% of carbon emissions are natural and 3% are human so we probably need to look at what is happening in nature."

The DLP senator John Madigan has said he will vote for the repeal but he is concerned about the burden Direct Action puts on taxpayers. During the election campaign he proposed an entirely different approach.

"Instead of imposing a tax we should instead have a penalties scheme, whereby a company must, for example, reduce pollutants from 100% to, say, 75% within a defined time period, which is then broken down into yearly reduction targets," Madigan said.

"If that company fails to adhere to its annual target it must pay a financial penalty that would come straight out of its back pocket, not the consumer's."

The South Australian independent senator Nick Xenophon has said he won't vote for the carbon tax repeal until the Coalition agrees to change Direct Action to incorporate the intensity-based emissions trading scheme proposed by Frontier Economics.

The Motoring Enthusiasts party's likely Victorian senator, Ricky Muir, is declining to comment on policy until he has more information.

And if the PUP does win its third Senate seat in Western Australia, where the battle for the final Senate spot is between it, Labor and the Sport party, the prime minister will need the mining magnate's three votes to achieve the necessary six out of eight votes on every piece of legislation, unless he decides to negotiate with Labor or the Greens.

The Coalition is likely to have 33 seats in the new Senate, meaning it will need six of the likely eight crossbench votes to achieve the 39 votes needed to pass legislation in the 76-seat Senate.

Leyonhjelm said he was opposed to Abbott's planned "green army" to do environmental cleanups while working for the dole and to the carbon farming initiative – a Labor policy the Coalition intends to continue and expand – which he said was just a scheme to "pay farmers to plant trees they can't cut down for 100 years".

Abbott has said the carbon tax repeal will be his first piece of legislation when parliament resumes. He vowed to call a double dissolution election if it was blocked in the Senate.

But with a more friendly Senate just months away it is much more likely he will wait until next after July to remove Labor's tax – a move the power industry says means household power bills are unlikely to come down until July 2015.

Australia could be left with no policy on climate change | World news | theguardian.com

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Nick Efstathiadis

By ABC's Jonathan Green

In opposition every boat was paraded for full political effect. In government the shutters come down. Photo: In opposition every boat was paraded for full political effect. In government the shutters come down. (Alan Porritt: AAP)

Having spent three years shouting about every new boat arrival, Tony Abbott now says it is this information flow that has been a boon to people smugglers, writes Jonathan Green.

Changing the pace. How deft. And this was no subtle variation.

As opposition leader Tony Abbott toured the country, warning day in, day out - his message amplified by the florescent gleam of the inevitable hi-viz vest - of looming crises in border security and the economy, as well as the emergency for families and small businesses confronting first the prospect and then the reality of the carbon tax.

There was no time to be lost. An election ... now! That was the top line melody that came daily, against a steady bass of 'stop the boats' and 'abolish the tax'. Day in, week out. For three outraged years.

And then he was gone: the incredible vanishing Prime Minister. The sudden political calm was greeted by the muted golf clap of the political commentariat, who recognised the dexterity of this political craft work. The discipline. The sense of ordered, deliberate cunning.

Tony Abbott has been Prime Minister now for eight days, a period marked by his sudden withdrawal from public life, part of a broader closing down that clearly aims to remove the sense of urgent emergency that has been the backdrop for our politics since 2010.

A backdrop Tony Abbott created, of course. A backdrop manufactured against all the available evidence: of a robust economy, the steady but tiny trickle of hapless refugees, the neutral impact of the carbon tax. By rights then this backdrop is his to remove at will. And again, you've got to admire the skill. The political polish.

And that might be all very well around the technocratic margins of economic management, that playing field of Australian politics where two sides test their incapacity to truly alter global events against a set of mutually agreed and entirely sensible objectives. No-one really gets hurt there; they can do as they will.

The asylum seeker issue is a little different.

For three years the Abbott opposition did its best to generate a sense of chaos around the steady trickle of boats testing our borders, compassion and policy resolve. There were never that many, that was the truth, and most had reasonable claims to our protection; that was true too. And coming by sea involved an extraordinary and mortal risk, a calculation that was a fair indication of desperation.

For three years every arrival was proclaimed. From the blogs of the enthusiastic election-now! right, from newspapers of like mind. In the recent federal campaign, Tony Abbott even gave his support to a touring billboard that counted down every new boat arrival. The political line was simple and eager: the then government had lost control of our borders, it was unable to secure the perimeter. And worse: through its incapacity it threatened the lives of people tempted by a trade that had been fostered by the Gillard/Rudd governments' abandon and dysfunction.

This became a central pillar in the argument led by Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison: that the asylum seeker issue had urgency because of the terrible loss of life at sea. The proposition was a simple equation: which was the more compassionate response, to tear down the borders and encourage behaviour that risked life, or strengthen those deterrents and stop the boats and their cargo, all potential victims of death by drowning?

Then this week this issue moved from the noisy clamour of opposition to the quiet whirr of industrious government. No daily updates, no eagerly set upon numbers around the steady flow of boat arrivals.

In another master class in political craft, border protection was now a military operation, an area in which secrecy is a commonplace. Loose lips sink ships.

None of it is consistent, of course, none of it rings true. In opposition every boat was numbered and paraded for full political effect. In government the shutters come down.

We are now told that providing a regular flow of information, the "shipping news" as Minister Morrison called it this week, was a boon to the people smugglers, people capable of running complex multinational systems of human movement, but unable, it seems, to track their operations without the assistance of press releases from an obliging Australian government.

Hypocritical, of course.

And morally?

If as Morrison now claims the provision of this information has aided the smugglers, then we can assume it also, by his own arguments, put lives at risk. Logically that is precisely what Messrs Morrison and Abbott have spent the past three years in opposition doing: spreading information for political purpose that by their own standards of "shipping news" encouraged the smugglers and thus put the lives of asylum seekers in terrible jeopardy.

It's just politics, that's the consensus analysis. Just the sort of canny switch of gears we admire as the deft prosecution of the politician's art. And it's all we expect of them really: to play politics for the sake of political advantage and power.

The fact that they do it is not the thing that should bother us. The fact that we shrug our shoulders and recognise the political calculations for what they are and give them grudging admiration, that's the troubling bit.

We let ourselves be taken for this ride, by participating mutely in a structured political drama that can argue for people's very lives in one month then turn around the next and do the opposite straight faced. One of these elections we might demand better.

That we collude quietly for now is a particularly dark piece of moral turpitude. It shouldn't be assessed against the standards of political cunning, it should be judged against the standards of simple decency.

Jonathan Green is the presenter of Sunday Extra on Radio National and a former editor of The Drum. His book, The Year My Politics Broke, is out on October 1. View his full profile here.

Tony Abbott's incredible disappearing act - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Nick Efstathiadis

By ABC's Alan Kohler

Malcolm Turnbull waits for Abbott to arrive Photo: The NBN is now in Malcolm Turnbull's hands. (AAP: Dean Lewins)

The NBN is a complex Government-owned, ubiquitous monopoly wholesale broadband network. It's not a mess yet but oh boy, it could be. And it would now go down as Malcolm's Mess, writes Alan Kohler.

Watching the new Minister for Communications, Malcolm Turnbull's performance yesterday, one was forcefully struck by the thought that the NBN is now his, quickly followed by a second realisation that sometime in the past two weeks he has been struck by the same thought, which would, in turn, have been quickly followed by: "Oh Shit".

The NBN is a complex Government-owned, ubiquitous monopoly wholesale broadband network, connecting Earth's least populated continent, on a very tight business plan, that is running about as far behind schedule as a normal house renovation - that is, it's more or less on track.

It's not a mess yet but oh boy, it could be. And it would now go down as Malcolm's Mess, which perhaps explains the tightness of the ministerial lips yesterday and why the key exhortation in his first "Statement of Expectations" to the NBN board, whose "offers of resignation" he has requested, was: "Keep Calm and Carry On". As if.

The 2013-2016 draft NBN corporate plan, not released publicly but leaked yesterday to your correspondent and others, is 140 pages of terrifying, mostly incomprehensible detail. It describes an infrastructure project that, to the untrained eye, looks basically impossible.

The document revises the forecast revenue down by $1.4 billion because of the three-month rollout delay, but the forecast internal rate of return is still 7.1 per cent.

That return relies on this statement on page 21 of the document:

"Subject to a limited number of exceptions, Telstra has agreed that it will use the NBN FTTP network exclusively as the fixed-line connection to premises in the NBN Fibre Footprint for a 20-year period from commencement of the Definitive Agreements. This means that following the Disconnection Date in respect of Rollout Region, Telstra will… only use the NBN FTTP Network to provide fixed line carriage Services to End-Users' premises…"

It goes on:

"Typically all households and business will migrate off the copper and HFC Networks within 18 months from the date on which NBN FTTP services are first available in their community."

Later the document says:

"NBN Co's systems are being designed to provide an experience for Service Providers that is as close as possible to owning their own network."

In other words, the NBN's forecast return of 7.1 per cent, something only a government would be satisfied with, depends upon it being a monopoly wholesaler - a socialist throwback in which the state owns the means of communication.

And now it's Malcolm Turnbull's socialist throwback.

Coalition policy, for which it has both a mandate and an obligation, is based on the more contemporary notion of competition.

As the full-stop-rich policy document (Hope. Reward. Opportunity. Fast. Affordable. Sooner.) says:

"Competitive and free markets have driven innovation and cost reductions in telecommunications since the early 1990s. The Coalition will remove or waive impediments to infrastructure competition introduced to provide a monopoly to Labor's NBN."

The change that matters with the change of government is allowing Telstra not to migrate all of its customers to the NBN, and allowing firms like TPG Telecom to connect the most profitable parts of the cities to its own wholesale fibre networks.

It is a matter of ideology. Malcolm Turnbull is right: the technology doesn't matter - FTTN will be fast enough, and if the 7.1 per cent IRR can be improved with more copper, it should be done. And who's on the board doesn't really matter, as long as they are sentient beings who know how to recruit and govern.

What matters is whether it's a wholesale monopoly. If it's not, best to cancel it now while we still can.

Alan Kohler is Editor in Chief Business Spectator and Eureka as well as host of Inside Business and finance presenter on ABC News. View his full profile here.

Will the NBN become Malcolm's Mess? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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Nick Efstathiadis
By Alan Austin Posted Friday, 6 September 2013

According to the argument advanced frequently in recent years by the federal Coalition and the mainstream media, the Howard-Costello years – 1996 to 2007 – were a period of sound management.

Above: much fun can be had, and hours wasted, googling images that evoke the spirit of Costello v Howard, the rumble in the jungle, the smack down of smack downs

"The Government of John Howard now looks like a lost golden age of reform and prosperity" is a favourite Tony Abbott mantra.

But is this true? Outside Australia, the Howard years are actually widely regarded as dismally disappointing.

Some in Australia, like veteran economics writer Kenneth Davidson, agree:

"What has happened under Costello's watch is a major financial disaster."

In 1996, Treasurer Peter Costello inherited an economy in promising shape. The tax system had been overhauled, the public service had been trimmed to size and the budget returned to structural surplus after decades of deficits.

Australia's economy strengthened remarkably through the Hawke-Keating. The world watched in awe as Paul Keating deregulated the banks, floated the Aussie dollar, reduced tariffs on imports, "snapped the stick" of inflation, moved from centralised wage-fixing to enterprise bargaining, and privatised publicly-owned non-monopolies.

From about the 20th-ranked economy in 1982 Australia had risen by 1996 to sixth in the world, only behind the United Arab Emirates, Norway, Singapore, Japan and the United States.

That's measured by the variables: income, growth, wealth, jobs, inflation, interest rates, taxes, economic freedom and credit ratings.

By 2007, however, at the end of the Howard years, Australia had slipped back in the rankings to 10th place.

This was masked at the time by strong global growth and prosperity. Plus an extraordinarily acquiescent media. But while Howard and Costello coasted, Australia (with Japan and the USA) was overtaken by Iceland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China.

Most of these countries had lower interest rates, greater support for enterprises and smarter investment strategies – and hence more people employed and stronger growth.

There was no excuse for this deterioration. The structural reforms of the Hawke and Keating years built the foundation for Australia to beat the world – as eventually happened in 2010 when Australia rocketed to the top of the world's economies.

Six errors cost Australia dearly.

The first was selling off productive assets. These included airports, the National Rail Corporation, Dasfleet, Telstra, the remaining share of the Commonwealth Bank and many other valuable enterprises.

Had Australia retained some or all of these cash-yielding assets, current angst over debt may well have been allayed.

The second problem was failing to invest in infrastructure needed for future development. The funds were certainly available, especially as the mining boom accelerated.

The third was failing to lift compulsory superannuation savings to strengthen retiree security.

The Keating Government had planned to increase contributions from 9% to 15% so baby boomers could enjoy retirement on incomes close to weekly earnings.

"Anyone born in the 1940s can't now be in the system long enough," Mr Keating lamented. "It's impossible now to look after the baby boomers. Impossible."

Chief executive of superannuation fund Cbus David Atkin agreed: "There's no doubt that the delay in introducing higher contributions is impacting on baby boomers."

The fourth was selling 167 tonnes of Australia's gold reserves at near rock bottom prices just before the price rose spectacularly. According to one assessment, the fire sale returned just $2.4 billion. Had the gold been sold in 2011, when the nation needed cash during the global financial crisis, it would have fetched about $7.4 billion.

The fifth matter was losing more than $4.5 billion gambling in foreign exchange markets between 1997 and 2002.

According to Kenneth Davidson, "foreign banks have walked away with a fortune as a result of the Treasury's failed attempt at picking currency winners."

Further analysis has been offered by Alan Kohler and News Weekly. But for most of the last ten years this was effectively covered up.

The sixth was squandering the proceeds of asset sales and the vast rivers of revenue from booming industries by handing it out to middle and high income earners as election bribes.

According to a Treasury report in 2008, between 2004 and 2007 the mining boom and a robust economy added $334 billion in windfall gains to the budget surplus. Of this, the Howard Government spent, or gave away in tax cuts, $314 billion, or 94 per cent.

Sales of businesses yielded another $72 billion. And yet Australia's cash in the bank when Howard left office was a low 7.3% of GDP.

Several other countries were much higher: Chile 13.0%, Sweden 17.4%, Finland 72.5%, United Arab Emirates 100.8% and Norway 138.8%.

Constant crowing about the strong surplus Mr Costello left seems inappropriate. Even Algeria [20.9%], Bulgaria [10.2%] and Kazakhstan [14.4%] had better books in 2007 than Australia.

Peter Hartcher summarised the situation succinctly in 2009:

"Yet the truth is that tax revenues were gushing into the Treasury so powerfully that the vaults were bursting - Howard and Costello could deliver surpluses and still spend rashly and irresponsibly.

"Howard spent $4 billion on his own 'cash splash' in his final budget, and promised another $4 billion in his election campaign, in the middle of a boom. In other words, there was no economic rationale whatsoever. On the contrary, Howard's handouts were helping to overheat the economy. These payouts were economic vandalism and political bribes designed to buy votes."

The Coalition will continue to declare, "You can trust us with the economy. We ran things well before."

The evidence, however, suggests they didn't.


© The National Forum and contributors 1999-2013. All rights reserved.

Outside Australia, the Howard years are actually widely regarded as dismally disappointing. - On Line Opinion - 6/9/2013

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