Lenore Taylor, political editor

theguardian.com, Monday 9 September 2013

Assortment of crossbench senators could test new prime minister's promise of stable, predictable government

Tony Abbott started the day with a bike ride. Photograph: PAUL MILLER/AAPIMAGE

A patchy assortment of between six and eight crossbench senators – likely to include two from the Palmer United party and one from the Motoring Enthusiast party – are set to challenge prime minister-elect Tony Abbott's determination to return to stable, predictable government.

Reinforcing his "grown-ups back in charge" message, Tony Abbott got "down to business" on Sunday, taking briefings from the heads of the departments of prime minister and cabinet, treasury and finance.

The existing Senate appears set to block key elements of Abbott's agenda, with Labor indicating on Sunday it would not roll over and agree to the repeal of its carbon pricing scheme.

And although the complicated vote-counting process remains unfinished, in the new Senate, which starts next July, Abbott now appears likely to need all or most of between six and eight non-Green crossbench votes to pass legislation.

This crossbench group could comprise the South Australian independent senator Nick Xenophon, two Palmer United party senators, one Australian Motoring Enthusiast party senator, one Family First senator, the sitting DLP senator John Madigan and possibly a Liberal Democratic party senator from NSW, who may have been elected by voters who thought they were voting for the Liberal party, and an Australian Sports party senator from Western Australia.

Xenophon, a sitting senator who was re-elected on Saturday, told Guardian Australia he would not vote for the abolition of the carbon tax until the Coalition's alternative Direct Action plan had been changed to ensure it could meet Australia's emission reduction targets.

"I'm not a mug. I'm not going to be voting for the repeal until I know Direct Action can work and I can't see how it would work as it stands … For a start it has to be properly modelled," Xenophon said.

And he said he wanted to see a Productivity Commission review of the childcare industry before he voted for Abbott's "signature policy" paid parental leave scheme, because he fears a looming childcare "crisis" and thinks some of the money being spent on parental leave might be better redirected.

Leaving his Sydney home for an early-morning bike ride, Abbott told reporters he would be "getting down to business". The message was repeated by senior Liberal figures, with frontbencher Andrew Robb saying Abbott would be "methodical … when he says there will be no surprises and no excuses, that's the sort of fellow he is".

Speaking at a "picture opportunity" before his meeting with the head of his department, Ian Watt, Abbott said he "deeply respected" the professionalism of the public service and was sure it would implement the Coalition's agenda to repeal the carbon tax and stop the boats.

Abbott needs to know for sure the electoral fate of New South Wales senator Arthur Sinodinos and Victorian MP Sophie Mirabella before he can finalise his front bench, which won't be sworn in until late this week or early next week.

But Clive Palmer, who appears set to win the Queensland lower house seat of Fairfax and on Sunday claimed to be a kingmaker whose preferences had delivered government to the Coalition, has an antagonistic relationship with the Queensland Liberal National party and holds very different views to the Coalition on issues such as asylum.

The Motoring Enthusiast party supports the "unimpeded recreational use of the environment" and the DLP's John Madigan opposes the paid parental leave plan on the grounds that it disadvantages less well-off women and those not in the paid workforce.

Coalition strategists argue that no minor party will want to risk a double-dissolution election because it would probably mean the end of their time in the Senate, but Palmer has said he thinks his political support is only going to rise over time.

Each of the micro-parties will have its demands, and negotiating with all of them over every piece of legislation will make it harder for Abbott to draw the distinction between his "stable" governing style and the deal-doing of Labor's minority government.

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