Lenore Taylor in Canberra

theguardian.com, Thursday 5 September 2013

Opinion polls predict a convincing win for the Coalition leader, ending six years of Labor rule and three years of political turmoil

Tony Abbott has promised mothers up to $75,000 for six months' leave as part of a parental leave scheme. Photograph: Patrick Hamilton/AFP/Getty Images

Australia is poised for a lurch to the political right this weekend when the ruling Labor party faces electoral defeat at the hands of Tony Abbott and his conservative Coalition.

Opinion polls predict a convincing victory for Abbott, a social conservative and political pugilist who has toned down his aggressive persona, narrowed policy differences with Labor and boosted his personal popularity during the five-week election campaign.

An Abbott victory would end six years of Labor rule dominated by leadership tensions between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, who between them achieved something of a political precedent by unseating each other within three years.

Gillard overthrew Rudd to become Australia's first female prime minister just before the 2010 poll, after which she clung to power by forming a minority government with the support of the Greens and an assortment of independents. But with opinion polls predicting a wipe-out, a desperate Labor then moved against Gillard to return Rudd to the prime ministership only six weeks before he called the 2013 poll.

At first the switch appeared to have paid off, with Labor's vote recovering to almost 50:50, but over the course of the campaign Abbott has again pulled ahead. Most recent polls show the Liberal National party Coalition with 53% or 54% of the vote after second preferences have been redistributed in Australia's complex voting system. This would deliver Abbott a majority of between 10 and 15 seats in the 150-seat lower house.

Abbott, a 56-year-old fitness fanatic, was a Rhodes scholar, a Catholic seminarian, the director of the monarchist movement that successfully opposed Australia's 1999 referendum to become a republic, a journalist and a political adviser before he entered politics in 1994 and became a long-serving minister in the Coalition government led by John Howard.

He was widely considered an unlikely candidate when he became opposition leader in late 2009, but doggedly pursued Labor during a period marked by its internal divisions, a bitter debate over pricing carbon emissions, Labor's gradual acceptance of the Coalition view that Australia needs harsh policies to stop asylum seekers arriving by boat, and a political contest about whether Labor's A$42bn (£24bn) stimulus spending in response to the 2008 financial crisis saved Australia's economy or contributed to what Abbott has claimed is a "budget emergency".

Having built his standing as opposition leader on the contention that Labor's carbon tax would destroy jobs and hurt households, Abbott has promised his first legislative act as prime minister will be to repeal it. He promises to replace it with a capped $3.2bn fund for competitive grants to pay for voluntary carbon dioxide abatement, which independent modelling has found will be insufficient to meet even Australia's minimum international commitment to reduce emissions by 5% of 2000 levels by 2020.

His biggest election promise is a more generous paid parental leave scheme, offering mothers up to $75,000 for six months' leave at an annual cost of $5.5bn – a policy deeply unpopular with his party and the business community but which Abbott cites as evidence that he and his party "get" the lives and needs of modern women, despite Gillard's now-famous speech labelling him a misogynist.

Abbott is also promising $4bn for city roads in a pitch to suburban commuters angry about traffic jams. Abbott says he aims "to be an infrastructure prime minister who puts bulldozers on the ground and cranes into our skies".

He will cut company tax by 1.5%, except for the 3,000 largest businesses who will continue to pay the existing 30% tax rate, but with the final 1.5% now termed a temporary levy to help to pay for the expensive parental leave plan.

Kevin Rudd, has promised to protect blue-collar jobs if Labor is re-elected. Photograph: Tertius Pickard/AP

Abbott's central message to voters disillusioned by three years of political turmoil has been that the Coalition will end the instability of Labor's leadership feuding and the perceived instability of the minority parliament.

"The worst deficit is not the budget deficit but the trust deficit," he told the excited party faithful at his campaign launch in Brisbane two weeks ago.

"This election is all about trust … The last time Mr Rudd was prime minister, his own party sacked him. When a desperate party put him back, one-third of the cabinet resigned rather than serve with him. So my question is this: if the people who've worked with Mr Rudd don't trust him, why should you?" Abbott said.

He repeatedly tells voters Australia is a great country but "can't afford another three years like the last six".

Rudd's campaign has centred on the allegation that Abbott is "hiding" $70bn worth of spending cuts to services such as health and education, and the promise that Labor will protect blue-collar jobs.

"Mr Abbott's plan for cutting the future to ribbons remains hidden. That's because he knows that if the Australian people knew which jobs, schools and hospitals he would cut, then the people would be too frightened to vote for him. So I would simply say this to the Australian people: if you don't understand how Mr Abbott's $70bn of cuts will affect your job, your school, your hospital then don't vote for him," Rudd has said.

But Abbott insists the $70bn figure is wrong, and that there are only "modest" savings yet to be unveiled on top of the already announced cuts to government payments for schoolchildren, superannuation top-ups for low-income earners and tax breaks for small business, which are just sufficient to pay for spending plans. He has quietly shifted from the suggestion that Australia needs a rapid tightening of fiscal policy and says the country would be on track for a budget surplus by the end of his first three-year term – the same timing as Labor's forecast for a small surplus in 2016/17.

Labor has failed to win many plaudits for Australia's relatively strong economy, which has recorded 22 years of uninterrupted economic growth, with low unemployment and relatively low interest rates. Both parties accept that voters feel under pressure about the cost of living despite studies showing the average Australian household is in fact $5,302 better off in real terms than in 2008.

With the lower house result apparently so certain that bookmaker Sportsbet paid out on its bets on the Coalition nine days before the election, the result in the Senate, the Australian upper house, will be closely watched on Saturday.

It is highly unlikely the Coalition will win control of the upper house, but possible it will be able to pass legislation with the support of a more friendly collection of centrist and centre-right independents senators, rather than the Greens party, which opposes central elements of Abbott's agenda.

The result is difficult to predict, with a plethora of minor parties standing, including the Katter's Australia party led by colourful north Queensland protectionist Bob Katter, the Palmer United party, led by mining billionaire Clive Palmer and the anti-multiculturalism One Nation party, led by former MP Pauline Hanson.

If the Senate blocks his carbon price repeal Abbott has vowed to use the deadlock-breaking provisions in the Australian constitution for another election of the House of Representatives and the full Senate.

Tony Abbott poised for victory in Australia elections | World news | theguardian.com