Michael Gordon Political editor, The Age
March 18, 2013
It is a measure of Labor's predicament that the good news for the government in the latest Age/Nielsen poll is that Julia Gillard's - and the party's - standing did not take another hit after yet another messy week in Parliament.
Instead, the Prime Minister goes into the last sitting week before Parliament rises until the May budget with a confirmation of the very bleak set of numbers in last month's poll.
No one would dispute her statement to this reporter at the start of our weekend conversation - that she is in for the fight of her life.
Although there could still be a push to change leaders, this seems most unlikely - with Kevin Rudd sticking to his commitment not to challenge, no obvious contender to lead a delegation to the PM, and no prospect of Ms Gillard acting on any such advice anyway.
Indeed, the emphatic ''I'm-not-for-flinching'' message from the Prime Minister in her expansive interview with this newspaper should give those who would destabilise cause for caution.
Similarly, Mr Rudd's St Patrick's Day attempts at humour - especially the gag that began with the words: ''It's time to announce that I will challenge . . .'' - will be seen by detractors as a self-indulgent reminder that he hasn't changed and is not a panacea for the government's problems.
Although Mr Rudd is seen as preferred prime minister by a margin of two to one, this will not help Labor MPs who are pondering what to do. The preference of Labor voters is not nearly so clear, with Rudd preferred by 51 per cent to Gillard's 48.
What is clear is that the Prime Minister's foray into western Sydney a fortnight ago, and elevation of the issue of 457 visas for foreign workers, have not changed voter perceptions in any meaningful way.
What is also apparent is that a well-received cultural policy, solid job figures and the passage through the house of the disability insurance scheme were overshadowed by ''white noise'' on other fronts - especially the reaction to proposed media reforms.
Although the shifts are not statistically significant, the raw figures show Ms Gillard and Labor have lost their edge over Tony Abbott and the Coalition in her home state of Victoria, and the Prime Minister's approval is marginally down in NSW, the state where she desperately needs to make headway.
While the poll results suggest something significant has to change - and change soon - for Labor to be competitive, the more likely scenario is this: Ms Gillard is not challenged and faces the hard slog of chipping away at the Coalition's lead in the months after the May budget and before the September 14 poll.
No one would dispute her statement to this reporter at the start of our weekend conversation - that she is in for the fight of her life.
