Mark Kenny Senior political correspondent
March 12, 2013
Kevin Rudd supporters believe the government's crippling leadership stalemate can only be broken if one or more senior ministers loyal to Prime Minister Julia Gillard tap her on the shoulder.
Appealing to a ''greater loyalty'' as Labor eyes a potentially crushing defeat that some fear could decimate it for a generation, key Rudd backers say their man will not challenge but insist that something must give.
Not challenging: Kevin Rudd. Photo: Glenn Hunt
They say the ball is in the court of a clutch of ministers with the Prime Minister's ear, arguing it is time for a delegation to reprise the role played by Gareth Evans in 1991 when he told a politically wounded Bob Hawke: ''Pull out Digger, the dogs are pissing on your swag.''
However, party insiders say any such move by ''friendlies'' would not be telegraphed and would require ''absolute secrecy'' to have any chance of being persuasive.
The continued leadership speculation comes as the latest poll offers a glimmer of hope for the government.
Strong Gillard backer: Bill Shorten. Photo: Jesse Marlow
The Newspoll shows that Julia Gillard has regained her lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 42 to 38 per cent, and Labor's primary vote rose to 34 per cent, while the Coalition's dipped to 44 per cent.
But the Coalition maintains an election-winning lead - 52 to 48 per cent - on a two-party preferred basis, and it also showed that former prime minister Kevin Rudd would be a far more popular leader than Ms Gillard, potentially delivering a significant lift in support for Labor.
Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury likened the talk over a Rudd return to fantasy football.
Lacking numbers: Greg Combet. Photo: Andrew Meares
Mr Bradbury said on Tuesday that Ms Gillard had steely determination and played down the poll results suggesting Labor's chances would be improved with Mr Rudd in charge.
''You could throw Mr Turnbull in the mix and you'd probably end up finding that on that particular poll he looked a whole lot more popular than Mr Abbott,'' he told Sky News.
''This is a bit like fantasy NRL. Let's deal with the reality of what we've got.''
Mr Bradbury also took a swipe at media commentary on Labor's prospects.
''I think there is a danger here for many in the commentariat that they're out there writing the script before things actually happen,'' he said.
Trade Minister Craig Emerson said that the leadership issue was resolved last year and issued a call for calm.
''What the Australian people want to hear and will get from this government is conversation about them, not a conversation about ourselves. While ever we are talking about and implementing policies for the Australian people they respond positively,'' he said on Tuesday.
''They do not want any political party talking about itself and the jobs of its members, what they want and this is perfectly legitimate, for a political party in this case the government of Australia to continue to talk about their jobs and the issues that are relevant.''
Tertiary Education Minister Chris Bowen, who voted for Kevin Rudd in last year's leadership ballot, said the government must stay focused.
''This matter was resolved last February; I cast a ballot as you've indicated; that's a matter of public record,'' Mr Bowen told ABC Radio National.
''We've all said that we had our votes in February and that was where the matter was resolved.''
Ms Gillard spent most of Canberra's 100th birthday celebrations on the capital's public holiday on Monday ensconced in The Lodge, meeting with her leadership group, factional conveners and her parliamentary tacticians, before what promises to be a difficult sitting fortnight.
Federal caucus meets on Tuesday, before the resumption of sittings, with MPs reeling from the electoral drubbing dished out to Labor in the West Australian state election, where the party suffered a 2.2 per cent swing against it.
The Liberals picked up a swing of nearly 9 per cent, returning Premier Colin Barnett in a landslide.
Momentum appears to be gathering within caucus for a late and extremely risky leadership change before the September election, reversing the sudden removal of Mr Rudd in favour of his then deputy in June 2010.
Estimates of support for the ousted leader differ but it is widely acknowledged, even in the Gillard camp, that Mr Rudd has gained supporters as increasingly desperate Labor MPs face a likely humiliating loss in September.
Gillard supporters, however, scoff at claims support for Mr Rudd now exceeds that for Ms Gillard.
The Rudd camp is determined not to repeat tactical errors committed in the first leadership ballot in February last year, when Rudd was goaded into challenging effectively while still overseas and before he had built adequate support.
He lost that ballot decisively after a series of brutal character assessments by former cabinet colleagues, 31 votes to 71.
Ms Gillard's supporters say she is getting on with the job and deny that anything has changed for the government.
They insist her meetings on Monday were routine tactical meetings before the return of Parliament and were not connected to the internal leadership chatter.
WA's most senior Labor figure, Defence Minister Stephen Smith, conceded on Saturday night that Labor's state campaign in the west was damaged by the low standing of federal Labor.
''We were a drag,'' he said during the ABC's election night coverage. ''I don't think, really, given the difficulties we are going through, that is a surprise.''
