Alan Stokes Columnist
March 13, 2013
"Abbott is unlikely to risk an assault on working people". Photo: Andrew Meares
Julia Gillard has rebounded in the latest opinion poll. There's still hope. The world may not end on September 14. That's the optimistic Labor view.
Now a reality check.
Labor faces demolition under Gillard or slightly less resounding defeat under a new leader.
Abbott will become prime minister. He will have unfettered power, barring a Greens resurgence.
Abbott will wind back many of the good things Labor has done. Gillard's grand plans for many more social programs will vanish too. That's the pessimistic Labor view.
Apologies. But pessimism is now officially mainstream, thanks to German psychological research suggesting misery-gutses avoid injury and live longer. Best of all, if you're very pessimistic, the research shows you are likely to underestimate how happy you'll actually be in future. With that in mind, will life under Abbott be all that bad?
Amid all the scaremongering, it's easy to forget this: Labor and the Liberals tussle mostly over the middle ground. Most government decisions emerge from consensus or compromise between two fairly similar world views. Cynics might even say modern politics is all about power and not world views anyway.
Still, the measure of a caring nation is how it treats its most vulnerable. So we cannot ignore the dangers of changing to Abbott. But we can be realistic. The awkward reality for middle Australia is usually that what's lost on the political roundabout is gained on the swing.
Without the Labor spin, here's a sober view of life under Abbott:
Governance: No Eddie Obeid. That should make life tolerable for a while for even the most virulent anti-Abbotter.
Workplace: For all the huffing and puffing by business and the union-bashers, Abbott is unlikely to risk an assault on working people in his first term. What's more, Australians will accept measures that benefit hard workers. Most people want more freedom to work on their own terms. That means flexible conditions.
Gays: Gillard and Rudd oppose same-sex marriage anyway. In a few leaders' time it may be a crucial point of difference, but for now the biggest threat from Abbott is that he lets Coalition extremists run rampant.
Defence: Little difference, although the Coalition may ring-fence some defence spending.
Technology: Most people won't notice the difference between the national broadband network and the Malcolm Turnbull network - except the MTN is much cheaper.
Education: A biggie. Gonski's push for equity will end under Abbott. We will get more rote learning, protection of privilege and teacher bashing in the guise of the drive for better marks. Realistically, though, Labor was never likely to deliver the full Gonski. Optimistically, there won't be much change.
Climate: Another biggie. For all Abbott's protests, when the words ''carbon tax'' are history, eventually Australia will have an emissions trading scheme. Abbott will delay it a few years. John Howard saw sense on the goods and services tax too.
Health: Disability insurance is on the cards whoever wins. Private health insurance will survive. The state-federal blame game will go on. Abbott may localise spending control. Bureaucrats will lose jobs.
Asylum seekers: A plague on both their houses.
Foreign ownership: Abbott may even succumb to further controls, especially over the Chinese.
Economy: What should be Labor's great selling point has fallen victim to inflated expectations and the high dollar. Hockey and Robb are an untested commodity, but it won't matter who is running the show. The pain of economic adjustment will continue and the rent-seekers will keep whingeing.
Tax: Abbott wants to cut taxes but he'll need to find big savings. If he does, the wealthy will benefit. And forget cuts in middle-class welfare or super tax breaks for the rich.
Spending: Both sides will slash and burn.
Welfare: Abbott will cut more.
Problem gambling: A plague on both their houses.
Women's rights: Abbott will be a hurdle, not a blockage.
Public service: The big one. Life under Abbott will be hard for every public servant. Mr and Mrs Average will notice a reduction in services. User pays and mutual obligation will replace entitlement.
Party politics: Election defeats can be cathartic. Labor may reinvent itself as a party of empowering the deserving and caring for the needy. Then again, there's no sign of action after resounding defeats in NSW, Queensland and Western Australia. Surely someone has to step up and offer an alternative.
The optimistic conclusion is this: Life under Tony Abbott may not be as bad as we fear. Perhaps. If we're lucky. Assuming he's fair dinkum and his mates don't succumb to the power aphrodisiac.
I forgot to mention the other finding from the German research was things never turn out as well as optimists predict.
