Nick Efstathiadis

PM By James Glenday, staff

Julia GillardSupporters of Julia Gillard hope the Government will have clear air to sell its message. (AAP: Matt Roberts)

Related Story: Supporters urge Gillard to clean out frontbench

Related Story: Rudd gives up hope of return to Labor leadership

Related Story: Ferguson, Carr resign as Labor spill casualty list grows

Senior Labor ministers are hoping this week's leadership spill and subsequent resignations will give Julia Gillard clear air to sell the party's message.

But some supporters say uniting a divided party will be extremely difficult this close to an election, and analysts are predicting more leadership troubles if the party slips further in the polls.

The Prime Minister is facing a major a reshuffle of her frontbench after the resignations of some of Labor's most senior ministers in the wake of yesterday's spill.

Three ministers, including two from Cabinet, are heading to the backbench and Kevin Rudd has vowed there were no circumstances under which he would return as Labor leader.

Joel Fitzgibbon, who quit as chief government whip after the spill, says the majority of Caucus decided they would rather lose at the September poll than see the former prime minister return.

He says those agitating for leadership change could only count on 47 votes had Mr Rudd nominated.

"We created an environment in which the Caucus was forced to either take the offer or reject the offer and, unfortunately, they rejected the offer," he told triple J's Hack program.

"Many of these people are on margins of far less than 10 per cent and if we go to the polls on the current primary vote numbers, they will all lose their seats.

"So you've just go to ask yourself: what is going on?

"What makes it weird is they are not putting their personal position first, they are potentially sacrificing themselves by coming to the conclusion that somehow under the current leadership, things will improve."

Earlier senior ministers such as Greg Combet were out selling the "clear air" message.

"It's imperative that the Prime Minister has clear air to be able to articulate Labor's position to the community and take Labor to the election in September," he said.

"She deserves that."

Spill fiasco: The casualties so far


Simon Crean
Elder statesman who sparked the spill. Sacked for disloyalty before Question Time on Thursday.


Chris Bowen
Ex-immigration minister, resigned all portfolios at an emotional press conference the day after the spill.


Martin Ferguson
Former ACTU boss, resigned as resources, energy and tourism minister to go to the backbench.


Joel Fitzgibbon
Chief whip who set the hounds running on Wednesday, says he will keep quiet for the foreseeable future.


Kim Carr
Minister for human services and previously demoted Rudd backer, he has quit the ministry.


Richard Marles
Forced to resign parliamentary secretary role after coming out strongly for Rudd on Thursday.


Ed Husic
Western Sydney MP who quit as whip after expressing no confidence in Gillard.


Janelle Saffin
Long-time Rudd backer who resigned as whip after the challenge collapsed.

Many party figures agree with former New South Wales minister John Della Bosca who says the resignations, while difficult, are the best thing for Labor.

"They're doing the right thing by the party in some respects," he said.

"In fact in most respects, I think, and certainly by the Government.

"Removing the opportunity for the media to say, 'but you're here as the parliamentary secretary for XYZ, or the minister for ABC, or as the chief government whip, and you're not supporting the Prime Minister because only two days ago you were supporting Kevin Rudd in a ballot'.

"That's gone now. There's no possibility of that. So I think they're doing the right thing. The Government is settling down."

'Shambles and farcical'

Some analysts are sceptical that leadership spills and the purging of a party create a fresh start.

Senior politics lecturer at Monash University Nick Economou says the tensions between Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, Peter Costello and John Howard, and John Gorton and Billy McMahon all hurt their parties badly in the long run.

He says history shows leadership speculation is highly unlikely to end.

"I think the conditions that have been causing all this leadership speculation are still in place," he said.

"Now that Mr Rudd has said that he is not going to contest at all, whilst at first blush this looks like an improvement in Ms Gillard's position, it does open up the possibility for a third candidate.

"That's something that the Caucus may have to embrace when the next set of opinion polls come out showing that the Labor primary vote's dipping into the 20s (per cent)."

Outspoken Labor historian and former New South Wales minister Rodney Cavalier says the party has no chance of winning the election in September.

He has renewed his call for widespread reform of the party and predicts Labor's primary vote will drop dramatically over the next few weeks.

"The two words that one heard all of yesterday from ordinary people as well as commentators were 'shambles' and 'farcical' and it's hard to counter with either description," he said.

"I think they'll go to 23 (per cent primary vote). In my view it doesn't much matter once you're below 35. You can't win from 32 and you can't win from 35."

If the election result in September was that bad, Labor would lose many of its seats in western Sydney.

The former Labor mayor of Liverpool, Wendy Waller, concedes the events of the past two days will cost the party votes in areas where it can least afford to lose them.

She says the spill has been frustrating and says it will be very hard, but not impossible, for Labor to turn things around before September.

"I think people will be very confused and not understand what really took place and that was, I think, someone trying to fix a problem and unfortunately it just got out of context," he said.

"They've genuinely got a lot of runs on the board and I think what they've got to do is focus on the message and focus on their deeds rather than focus on what's going on between each individual."

Labor woes may stifle Gillard's hopes for clear air - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

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