Mark Kenny Senior political correspondent
March 2, 2013
EXCLUSIVE
FEDERAL Labor faces annihilation in western Sydney, losing seats previously considered safe unless the party switches back to Kevin Rudd, a poll has found.
It raises the prospect of double-digit swings in NSW, sending even MPs on margins of 12 per cent to the jobless queues.
The devastating snapshot of voter sentiment comes before a five-day swing through marginal western Sydney electorates by the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, from Sunday and suggests life-long Labor voters in traditional ALP strongholds are prepared to dispatch her government.
In results certain to increase the pressure for a leadership change, the exclusive Fairfax Media/ReachTEL automated poll, taken in four safe Labor electorates in the city's sprawling west, has found much of Labor's collapse can be directly attributed to negative perceptions of Ms Gillard's leadership.
But it also shows that western Sydney, widely regarded as Labor's killing fields come September, would not automatically be lost and could be saved if Mr Rudd were reinstalled as leader.
Conducted on Thursday evening, it showed all four seats would be surrendered to the Liberal Party in a tectonic shift that would redraw Australia's political landscape were an election held now.
But in the safest two seats, the losing margin could be turned into a winning margin with Mr Rudd at the helm.
Labor's vote in the other two seats would also be significantly improved under his leadership, putting both back in the winnable column and within the poll's margin of error.
The two safest seats are Chifley, held by the Labor first termer Ed Husic, and Blaxland, held by frontbencher and rising star Jason Clare. Mr Husic voted for Mr Rudd in last year's unsuccessful leadership tilt.
The ALP retained both electorates in 2010 on healthy margins of 12.3 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.
The other two electorates, McMahon, and Werriwa, are usually designated safe Labor seats with normally solid margins of 7.8 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively.
McMahon is held by the senior minister Chris Bowen, a known Rudd backer and a man tipped for the treasury portfolio if Mr Rudd was restored to The Lodge.
The poll surveyed a total of 2550 voters. It has a margin of error of 3.9 per cent.
When those in Blaxland were asked who would get their first preference vote if an election were held today, 34.2 per cent of the 662 residents polled said Mr Clare.
That compared with 44 per cent for the Liberal Party, giving it the upside of a 54-46 two party-preferred vote. But when asked to reconsider their vote if Mr Rudd were leader, the numbers reversed, giving Labor 54 per cent share of the vote.
In Chifley, Mr Husic would have been turfed out after one term with his share of the two party-preferred vote dropping from 62.3 per cent in 2010, to 46 per cent.
But when the 641 residents were asked to factor in Mr Rudd, the poll suggested Mr Husic would retain the seat easily with a winning share after preferences of 58 per cent.
In McMahon, the career of the Higher Education Minister, Mr Bowen, hangs in the balance with the poll showing his margin of almost 8 per cent would be obliterated in a massive swing leaving him with just 38 per cent of the two party-preferred vote.
Again, the poll suggests the backlash would be milder under Mr Rudd's leadership, although Mr Bowen would still trail with 47 per cent of the vote after preferences.
